The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
What do people think about this? Both the Web link and the twitter feed/comments?
https://twitter.com/markyiverson/status/1528700393840164865?t=mmhvgu3QBOLPTvNs4YAGTQ&s=19
interesting. I spoke to Mark at end of last year privately as his main trading is Cricket, and he was talking of quitting at that time.
I havnt been able to see other comments as Twitter wants me to sign up.From Marks website....
*After 12 years of doing this full time, it’s time to say goodbye.
This has been coming for a while and it’s not a decision I’ve taken lightly – it’s been a weight on my mind and drifting along hoping for things to change has been dragging me down and holding me back from moving on.
The truth is the opportunity that was Betfair is no longer there for me – at least to the same level it was, so it’s time to lay down the mouse. I could keep grinding away, but I turned 45 this month and I’m at the stage now where I’m asking myself if this is what I’d like to be doing full time in another 10/15 years and the answer I keep coming back to is ‘probably not.’
So how did it get to this point?
Firstly, the markets have changed. This isn’t to be unexpected and over the years I’ve had to re-invent myself numerous times to keep-up, but things feel very different now and I’m out of ideas.
Many Betfair users will have noticed liquidity drying up on many sports over the last few years and cricket is no different. Everyone looks at the headline figures showing the total matched for each game, especially in the biggest tournaments like the IPL, but this on its own is not a good indicator for the health of a market. Liquidity is the ability to enter and exit your positions quickly and the reality is this has become more difficult. The dynamics have shifted to a few large accounts having an awful lot of control and with the rise of automation and better technology these guys can take advantage of market changes much quicker than was previously possible. Hats off to them, they are now dominant and with TV pictures getting more and more delayed their edge will have increased substantially especially if they have access to groundsiders and/or low latency real-time feeds.
Secondly there is the risk of potential changes to the gambling landscape and associated changes to legislation. The Gambling Commission recently conducted its review, and their conclusions will feed into the government’s decision making, but with topics like gambling addiction and the collapse of well-known betting firms firmly in the spotlight, tighter regulation is being called for by many people in the public eye. I won’t get into the rights or wrongs of this topic, but the reality is that as someone whose livelihood solely relies on gambling the risk surrounding this area has risen and turning a blind eye to it would be unwise.
When you take these things into account it’s not surprising that Premium Charges continue to be an anchor weighing me down and when things are tough the last thing you want to be thinking of is potential 40% deductions at the end of the week. Psychologically they have a massive effect, and this only escalates if edges start to erode. I said back in 2008 when they were introduced that they were a dream killer and I stick by that – positive word of mouth stopped overnight and stalled growth.
There was talk of Betfair introducing an annual allowance to help with this, but things have gone quiet, and it seems as though their pricing team are struggling to keep customers and shareholders happy at the same time. It’s a tough puzzle to solve but something will have to give and unfortunately for me it looks as if that time will come too late.
So, there’s my thoughts, but before I sign-off I will say that I am not looking for any sympathy here. Of course, I’m a bit sad – trading sports on Betfair has been a huge part of my life for a long time so saying goodbye is difficult, but I am very grateful too and still love the exchange. It’s a great product which makes it even more frustrating to watch what it’s become. I firmly believe that had different paths been chosen by management things would be very different, but that’s something we will never know for sure.
What next?
I’ll still be keeping my Betfair account open, at least in the short term, but I need to gently close the door and investigate new opportunities. I have some things in mind, but no firm plans so if you have any suggestions, I’m all ears!
As for my twitter account and website I imagine they will look a bit different over the coming months and with the lack of cricket and trading references I’m not sure my followers will be too keen on knowing my day-to-day thoughts on other subjects.
Finally, I have some big thank yous to handout.
Thank you to ‘you’ for following my journey and being interested in what I do. I’ve met quite a few of you along the way and all-in-all you are a decent bunch. I wish you well on your own trading paths and wish you much success.
Thank you also to those at ‘Bet Angel’ and ‘Geeks Toy’ for giving me the tools to do what I’ve done for this long. Without both of those I wouldn’t have gotten this far.
And lastly thank you to Betfair. There have been ups and downs, but you have helped changed my life and I’ve loved (most) of it.
Mark*
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What do people think about this? Both the Web link and the twitter feed/comments?
https://twitter.com/markyiverson/status/1528700393840164865?t=mmhvgu3QBOLPTvNs4YAGTQ&s=19
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
I've went for a SHG in the Shelbourne v UCD match. 1-0 at HT
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Lay under 1.5:
I've never been much of a fan of Estonia but so far it's going just as well as any other league on this and odds aren't nuts either!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
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Lay under 1.5 Hvidovre
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals:
17:00 - Sandnes Ulf v Mjøndalen
17:00 - Skeid v Stjørdals-Blink
18:00 - Halmstad v Brommapojkarna
19:45 - Drogheda United v Shamrock RoversWhat a weekend!! I missed most of the Premier League finale as I was flying back from Birmingham to Belfast. My daughter's drama group won 'Best Overall Production' for the 3rd year in a row at the Musical Theatre International Festival. Not even Liverpool missing out on the Premier League could dampen my weekend. I also enjoyed a few days of not trading. I'm definitely going to take trading breaks when I'm away.
Nice one! If they win 4 in a row do they get to keep the trophy?
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Lay Under 1.5 Goals:
17:00 - Sandnes Ulf v Mjøndalen
17:00 - Skeid v Stjørdals-Blink
18:00 - Halmstad v Brommapojkarna
19:45 - Drogheda United v Shamrock RoversWhat a weekend!! I missed most of the Premier League finale as I was flying back from Birmingham to Belfast. My daughter's drama group won 'Best Overall Production' for the 3rd year in a row at the Musical Theatre International Festival. Not even Liverpool missing out on the Premier League could dampen my weekend. I also enjoyed a few days of not trading. I'm definitely going to take trading breaks when I'm away.
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@mr-emmet-moorehouse I do enjoy Chilean,Bolivian, Peruvian and Paraguayan with Uruguayan sometimes
I stay away from Brazilian and Argentinian as proper rollercoaster most of the time
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@mr-emmet-moorehouse Good luck
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@chris-osborne True. I hope my standard second half-goal approach pays off.
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@mr-emmet-moorehouse said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin South America is a very mixed bag. Chile seems more or less ok, but I am not sure about the rest of them
Bolivia and Peru can go stupid for goals at times
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For those liking laying under 1.5, Haugesund v Bodø Glimt are value imo.
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This is probably more high risk trading/ betting, but I noticed Liverpool o.5 is 42 and Man City is 34. These seem way too high for KO. If think both teams will be cagey to begin with and I’d be surprised if there’s a goal within 5-10 minutes.
You could lay those with really low liability and look to cash out early. The biggest downside is both teams look aggressive and no one wants to put money on it to drive the price down
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Viking today and Mjøndalen tomorrow have big value IMO.
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@stuart-wallace said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I'm finding Almeria v Alcorcon odds more palatable.
Almeria top , needing a win to go up, Alcorcon already relegated.1-1.
Eibar are top, and Almeria are 2nd, yet they have same points and Almeria have a better goal difference, and scored more goals - how does that work ?!This really threw me in the Serie A betting market, I know some of you followed my 5/1 AC Milan tip (well done by the way, if you haven't cashed out then do so!). Well I saw them trading in the 1.1s to win the title, which I thought was super short so I greened up as Inter are only 2pts back and have a home game vs AC having an away game. Then I read that AC just needed to avoid defeat to win the title despite having a much worse goal difference because of the head to head.
Ten Haag has a huge amount of work to do.