The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer 20games is a full season or close to it for some leagues surely you get an idea of promoted/relegated teams after around 10 games
I want more than an idea. I want all my data to be from the correct leagues. Got out for a 1/3 loss.
Annoyed at myself for the initial mistake but previously I probably would have let that run.
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Well as football trading is a little bit quiet what I've been doing is looking at strategies that I'm going to adopt for the new season and for the summer season. The two that I'm going to look at in greater debts are first half goal and LTD. I know they are profitable members filters on BTC stats but I was just wondering for people who trade these strategies what statistics do you look at to narrow down selections? So for first half goal is it simply that you just look at first half goal percentages in the last 10 competitive games so to speak?
For FHGs i have found that league selection and dripping in the bets have been hugely important. It's a tough market to crack, but places like Germany, Norway, Holland and Switzerland tend to perform better for me.
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer 20games is a full season or close to it for some leagues surely you get an idea of promoted/relegated teams after around 10 games
I want more than an idea. I want all my data to be from the correct leagues. Got out for a 1/3 loss.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer 20games is a full season or close to it for some leagues surely you get an idea of promoted/relegated teams after around 10 games
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay under 1.5:
Not Taraz as low average data insufficient at present!
Realise I've made an error on Start. Kongsvinger were in Div 2 last season. If I get the chance to get out for little or no loss I will.
These little details are quite hard to keep on top of. I don't want to exclude on the Filter in case it keeps excluding after 20 games.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@jason-naylor thanks jason thats a very interesting idea, ill start tracking this
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@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer The results on my MLS records have been dipping lately too.
A while ago I would have dropped it but then would have lost out on the next 2.
Big league with loads of liquidity and minimal corruption.
Only leagues I'm ruling out now are the ones at the bottom of the corruption index which currently is Venezuela and Guatemala. Honduras and Nicaragua would be on the list too.
Plus stuff like Faroes and Bosnia as dates are almost never right and liquidity rubbish!
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@richard-latimer The results on my MLS records have been dipping lately too.
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Lay under 1.5:
Not Taraz as low average data insufficient at present!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay under 1.5:
1/2 in a disappointing day which puts initial data for the MLS into the red.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@nick-allan @Tomasz-Lunarzewski has a decent looking LTD filter, I’ve started testing it he shared it on the set and forget thread may be worth looking at what criteria he uses.
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@nick-allan Hi Nick, when looking at FHGs, I not only look at last 10 matches, I also look at Shots on Target in first 45 mins. My philosophy is on average a goal is scored every 4.2 sots on target. So I'd look at minimum of 42 shots on target overall. I hope this helps.
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Well as football trading is a little bit quiet what I've been doing is looking at strategies that I'm going to adopt for the new season and for the summer season. The two that I'm going to look at in greater debts are first half goal and LTD. I know they are profitable members filters on BTC stats but I was just wondering for people who trade these strategies what statistics do you look at to narrow down selections? So for first half goal is it simply that you just look at first half goal percentages in the last 10 competitive games so to speak?
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Posting these for tomorrow. Lay under 1.5:
1/2 today. Not many goals in Ireland tonight!
Indeed. Derry had to rely on a penalty to beat UCD. And Cork City (scores on average 2+ per game) could only beat Cobh (concedes on average 2.5 per game) by 1-0.
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Lay under 1.5:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Posting these for tomorrow. Lay under 1.5:
1/2 today. Not many goals in Ireland tonight!
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@dan-mackinnon I think that would shorten if they made the last 16 maybe to 45 something like that, maybe shorter. When odds are that high you don't need them to get to semis but obviously if they did you would expect them to be 20 max.
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Interesting video from @Martin about the overall winner markets. Something I spotted was that Athletico Madrid are at odds of 55 to back or 85 to lay to win the CL. They consistently make it out of their group stages and can grind teams down in the knockouts. If you got matched at 85 that's a 1.3% implied chance. Are these prices often too high to ever really come down?
Is the plan to look for teams that might make the semi-final/ final rather than QF?
