The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@nick-allan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@mr-emmet-moorehouse yeah shg strats have not been great in aug, shame as july was good and ive upped stakes as had 3 consistent profitable months
Yeah it's been a nice little run. Typically what happens is that it's one step forward two steps back for a few days followed by a good run.
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@mr-emmet-moorehouse just out of interest if its been a high scoring first half do you tend to leave the SHG trade?
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@mr-emmet-moorehouse yeah shg strats have not been great in aug, shame as july was good and ive upped stakes as had 3 consistent profitable months
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@mr-emmet-moorehouse said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
These are my SHG picks for today.
I trade each match differently depending on my level of confidence and the in play stats. I try not to get involved unless I am laying at 5.0 or less, but it is situation dependent and I may sometimes drip the stake in where the odds are not ideal but there is a strong chance of a goal before 60 min. I am also not averse to cutting my losses if it seems like a dead game or if my loss exceeds a certain level.
Over the course of about 300 trades these have an 86% hit rate, rising to 89% where I use the most strict version of my selection criteria. Note that this does not mean that I have won 86 to 89% of my trades but that I would have if I had bet at HT and let it run.
On the basis that I have just revealed my hit rate, you may want to bet against these picks to take advantage of Sod's law.
4/6- not terrible. I don't mind PEPO as it was 2-1 at HT and for some reason that HT score underperforms for me but Skeid feels like a let down. No big deal though- a small loss that could have been a bigger loss.
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@mr-emmet-moorehouse says suspended just not sure why
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@james-rome No, but it was on my 1.5 list so I am annoyed.
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anyone know whats happening with the Orgryte v AFC Eskilstunagame
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay under 1.5:
2/2 today and I'm back to Schrodingers trade. So much less stressful and I'm really going to try to stick to it this time!
The trade is both alive/dead until I check the scores after the game.
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These are my SHG picks for today.
I trade each match differently depending on my level of confidence and the in play stats. I try not to get involved unless I am laying at 5.0 or less, but it is situation dependent and I may sometimes drip the stake in where the odds are not ideal but there is a strong chance of a goal before 60 min. I am also not averse to cutting my losses if it seems like a dead game or if my loss exceeds a certain level.
Over the course of about 300 trades these have an 86% hit rate, rising to 89% where I use the most strict version of my selection criteria. Note that this does not mean that I have won 86 to 89% of my trades but that I would have if I had bet at HT and let it run.
On the basis that I have just revealed my hit rate, you may want to bet against these picks to take advantage of Sod's law.
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@lee-woodman I have found that Sweden works better when I only take bets where the half time score is 1-0, 0-0 or 0-1.
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@andy-donnelly Yes its a league which can be a bit ‘iffy’! I think the thing which goes in it’s favour is that the odds are generally better than a lot of leagues, so the lower SR is more tolerable. I dont actually trade the allsvenkan at all in Sweden as that’s a bit worse and is a loss league for me
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@lee-woodman I think the Landkrona one busted a few of us yesterday. Need to keep an eye on the superettan, is getting close to being black-listed for me!
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Todays SHG trades
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
My SHG trades for today. Will LCS at 4.0
4/6. 2pt loss
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Lay under 1.5:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Thusday, 04th August 2022
Lay Under 1.5 Goals:
03:30 - Portland Timbers v Nashville SC
17:00 - Sandnes Ulf v Sogndal
18:00 - Öster v Utsikten
20:00 - Dundee United v AZ Alkmaarle jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals:
10:30 - Western United v Melbourne Victory
11:00 - Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Yokohama F. Marinos
17:00 - Bodø / Glimt v Žalgiris
17:00 - Kristiansund v Tromsø
18:00 - Landskrona v Skövde AIK
20:15 - Fram v StjarnanThe Western United v Melbourne Victory is a cup game.
The Bodø / Glimt v Žalgiris is a Champions League Qualifier
The remaining matches are league games
4/5
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals:
10:30 - Western United v Melbourne Victory
11:00 - Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Yokohama F. Marinos
17:00 - Bodø / Glimt v Žalgiris
17:00 - Kristiansund v Tromsø
18:00 - Landskrona v Skövde AIK
20:15 - Fram v StjarnanThe Western United v Melbourne Victory is a cup game.
The Bodø / Glimt v Žalgiris is a Champions League Qualifier
The remaining matches are league games
Think I’m gonna leave out the Sanfrecce Hiroshima v Yokohama F. Marinos match. It’s a cup game and I hate trading Japan
People often omit cup matches. It depends on the competition I think. Certainly the League Cup in England is one I would leave alone, but the FFA Cup in Australia is great.
1.5 Goals - 85.71%
2.5 Goals - 78.57%
You can't ignore those stats
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My SHG trades for today. Will LCS at 4.0
