The BTC Football Trading Thread

Mark Maguire

@Martin Interestingly I have been spending hours and hours this last week or so analysing all of my filters and the goal times. I have applied 12 different staking strategies to each filter, modelled the odds movements (with and without goals being scored - based on five minute gaps from the start to 60 mins) - and if the theory is proven it will flip my staking completely - will be putting it into practice this weekend but according to the data I can improve my return by at least a multiple of three by changing the staking, the S/R has always been between 86% and 92% on my filters but something felt not quite right about the staking and the difference in profit depending on staking is huge according to the work this week. .. I will either be celebrating or destroying my computer after this weekend.

Martin

@samo thanks yes I found the results very interesting and perhaps need a change of my preconceptions.

This is why I love testing data so much, data has no bias!

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@Martin

i just watched the movie about the after international week set and forget.

we need more data but if you flipped the martin over 1,5 to a lay strategie in this period it would have been a killer.

nice that you made a movie about the topic you are talking about and a lot of people started to think about.

it also gives some clarity.

Akiva Anderson

@akiva-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

SHG in the Danish Cup match between Viborg v Aarhus match. 1-0 at HT (1-2 on aggregate)

Shite! Will be back tomorrow

Akiva Anderson

SHG in the Danish Cup match between Viborg v Aarhus match. 1-0 at HT (1-2 on aggregate)

Richard Latimer

@james-rome said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I've Laid Over 1.5 in Huachipato (Chile) @ 1.35.
Got to it a little late

1-0.

Good thing about these is with odds and calculated s/r a win is worth almost 3 wins laying the under.

I have a unders filter not want to back them with a point

I've calculated my expected strike rate to longest expected losing streak. My stake is based on that and it's to win around 5%

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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I've Laid Over 1.5 in Huachipato (Chile) @ 1.35.
Got to it a little late

1-0.

Good thing about these is with odds and calculated s/r a win is worth almost 3 wins laying the under.

I have a unders filter not want to back them with a point

Martin

@josh-armstrong said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

hey guys! is it fine to trade this weekend coming out of the international break?

yes last weekend was coming out of the int break not this weekend

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I've Laid Over 1.5 in Huachipato (Chile) @ 1.35.
Got to it a little late

1-0.

Good thing about these is with odds and calculated s/r a win is worth almost 3 wins laying the under.

Richard Latimer

I've Laid Over 1.5 in Huachipato (Chile) @ 1.35.
Got to it a little late

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@matthew-harrison wow that is something deff. to note down thanks

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hey guys! is it fine to trade this weekend coming out of the international break?

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@daniel-heim-råum

I was looking at that game and even got a notification to tell me to back the shg but that league has been dead recently. Last 4 games have been under 1.5 so I didn’t get on it

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SHG Vicente Sporting 0-0?

Akiva Anderson

SHG in the Man United v Brentford match. 1-0 at HT

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@akiva-anderson we are blessed with people like you Amen!

Akiva Anderson

May you all have a blessed Pesach (Passover). Just like when Adonai delivered his people from the bonds of slavery, may your football trading lead you to financial freedom.

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@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@Martin I think he's ace! Smart bloke, strong tactically.

but effed up at Bayern Munich , unlike most people in front of him. Dont get it.

Richard Latimer

@alex-rule said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Hi all, can anyone recommend the best stats site to find data such as SOT in the FH? I have a FHG strategy that seems to be doing really well and I want to collect extra information to see about refining it and looking for trends. Cheers! Al

I would say sofascore personally. Download the app.

Ryan

@Martin I think he's ace! Smart bloke, strong tactically.