The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@nick-allan I’m not sure anyone said that every trade in the whole league is a value opportunity. The comments were more to counter the sweeping statement that there are NO value chances in the whole league. If there was no value at all then no one would be able to profit from it. I think you need to grasp the difference in price and value.
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@nick-allan Value is not just the price, it is the difference between the odds and strike rate.
If your strike rate is better than the odds you are getting then this is value even at odds of 1.26.
@martin used to have a table showing odds and value attached to a results thread, currently struggling to find it,
Took me ages to get my head around this concept
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@martin hi watched the video this morning was great thanks and really helpful for us new guys to understand the things you can do with the strategies etc. i have looked around for the list of strategies you had on your filters that you used to try and load them into mine to enable me to do what you do daily as on the video by myself, i was wondering if you had a link to them all so i could get them added. thanks andy.
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For everyone talking about value in singapore - where is the value here in a SHG situation? Im sorry but there is bugger all value in this league so i personally will not trade it.............
normally after 67 mins the next goal market would be 1.4 plus. Trading is about finding value, so where is it here?
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Today's Strong Selections for Goals:
Norway Eliteserien 04/09/2022 17:00:00 Kristiansund Sandefjord
USA Mls 05/09/2022 3:30:00 Los Angeles FC Real Salt Lake
USA Mls 05/09/2022 1:00:00 Los Angeles Galaxy Sporting Kansas City
Norway Eliteserien 04/09/2022 17:00:00 Rosenborg Viking
USA Mls 05/09/2022 0:30:00 Toronto FC Montreal Impact -
Anyone who has run the filters this morning might be worth running again! There’s been an issue with some stats but it seems to have been resolved
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@nick-segura said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer odds on LCS at 50 minutes in were around 11.
Crazy high........but........if your system is +90% or Singapore was +90% there could still be value.
Price doesn't dictate value. Price coupled with strike rate does.
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I often find value in Singapore games and they have been one of the more profitable leagues over the last couple of months for SHG. But actually my average lay odds on the Singapore games is LOWER than my overall SHG trades which shows i am delaying my entry and getting involved later in the half. The odds always compress later in the half and around 80' there isnt actually much of a spread in most prices
Its also important to understand that a value price is just when the price to you is better than the probability of that event happening. So backing O1.5 in one game at a price of 1.3 could actually be worse than backing a different game at 1.05!
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@richard-latimer odds on LCS at 50 minutes in were around 11.
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This post is deleted!
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@oliver-preen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Value in the Singapore games can be found....
Over 1.5 FHG waiting for odds over 2.0, + 2/3 goals away from current score at odds over 2.0 and sometimes when going for a +1 late goal again at odds over 2.0Value doesn't specifically relate to price so I would argue value can be found in any league.......other than Venezuela or anywhere else that low on the global corruption index haha!
If something happens 9/10 then a price of 7 or 8 to lay is still value whether you deem it high or not.
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@oliver-preen i do find value most of the time but today I could not and I was curious to find out if Ryan did. Only 1 of the 2 games would have qualified for the strat anyway but curious to know what he did with those selections. I personally did not enter the market and moved on.
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Value in the Singapore games can be found....
Over 1.5 FHG waiting for odds over 2.0, + 2/3 goals away from current score at odds over 2.0 and sometimes when going for a +1 late goal again at odds over 2.0 -
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@nick-segura singapore is shocking i dont trade the league apart form 1.5 set and forget but they rarely match at 1.25
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Just the 2 today. Lay Under 1.5:
First is 2-0 already
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Just the 2 today. Lay Under 1.5:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0
