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The BTC Football Trading Thread

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Football Trading
42.9k Posts 268 Posters 3.4m Views
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  • M Offline
    M Offline
    Mark Maguire
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #441

    @Martin Interestingly I have been spending hours and hours this last week or so analysing all of my filters and the goal times. I have applied 12 different staking strategies to each filter, modelled the odds movements (with and without goals being scored - based on five minute gaps from the start to 60 mins) - and if the theory is proven it will flip my staking completely - will be putting it into practice this weekend but according to the data I can improve my return by at least a multiple of three by changing the staking, the S/R has always been between 86% and 92% on my filters but something felt not quite right about the staking and the difference in profit depending on staking is huge according to the work this week. .. I will either be celebrating or destroying my computer after this weekend.

    ? MartinM 2 Replies Last reply
    3
  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #442

    @samo thanks yes I found the results very interesting and perhaps need a change of my preconceptions.

    This is why I love testing data so much, data has no bias!

    Football testing 2025: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rO--lA-RazH6WrqV9ZflwRTJCPnACyFWO9e_wygEgmo/edit?gid=0#gid=0

    M ? 2 Replies Last reply
    1
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #443

    @Martin

    i just watched the movie about the after international week set and forget.

    we need more data but if you flipped the martin over 1,5 to a lay strategie in this period it would have been a killer.

    nice that you made a movie about the topic you are talking about and a lot of people started to think about.

    it also gives some clarity.

    MartinM 1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • Akiva AndersonA Offline
    Akiva AndersonA Offline
    Akiva Anderson
    replied to Akiva Anderson on last edited by
    #444

    @akiva-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

    SHG in the Danish Cup match between Viborg v Aarhus match. 1-0 at HT (1-2 on aggregate)

    Shite! Will be back tomorrow

    le jeu avant tout

    Am Yisrael Chai

    When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
    But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game...

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Akiva AndersonA Offline
    Akiva AndersonA Offline
    Akiva Anderson
    wrote on last edited by
    #445

    SHG in the Danish Cup match between Viborg v Aarhus match. 1-0 at HT (1-2 on aggregate)

    le jeu avant tout

    Am Yisrael Chai

    When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
    But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game...

    Akiva AndersonA 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #446

    @james-rome said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

    @richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

    @richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

    I've Laid Over 1.5 in Huachipato (Chile) @ 1.35.
    Got to it a little late

    1-0.

    Good thing about these is with odds and calculated s/r a win is worth almost 3 wins laying the under.

    I have a unders filter not want to back them with a point

    I've calculated my expected strike rate to longest expected losing streak. My stake is based on that and it's to win around 5%

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #447

    @richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

    @richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

    I've Laid Over 1.5 in Huachipato (Chile) @ 1.35.
    Got to it a little late

    1-0.

    Good thing about these is with odds and calculated s/r a win is worth almost 3 wins laying the under.

    I have a unders filter not want to back them with a point

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • MartinM Offline
    MartinM Offline
    Martin btc team
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #448

    @josh-armstrong said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

    hey guys! is it fine to trade this weekend coming out of the international break?

    yes last weekend was coming out of the int break not this weekend

    Football testing 2025: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rO--lA-RazH6WrqV9ZflwRTJCPnACyFWO9e_wygEgmo/edit?gid=0#gid=0

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #449

    @richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

    I've Laid Over 1.5 in Huachipato (Chile) @ 1.35.
    Got to it a little late

    1-0.

    Good thing about these is with odds and calculated s/r a win is worth almost 3 wins laying the under.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #450

    I've Laid Over 1.5 in Huachipato (Chile) @ 1.35.
    Got to it a little late

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #451

    @matthew-harrison wow that is something deff. to note down thanks

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #452

    hey guys! is it fine to trade this weekend coming out of the international break?

    MartinM 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #453

    @daniel-heim-råum

    I was looking at that game and even got a notification to tell me to back the shg but that league has been dead recently. Last 4 games have been under 1.5 so I didn’t get on it

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #454

    SHG Vicente Sporting 0-0?

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Akiva AndersonA Offline
    Akiva AndersonA Offline
    Akiva Anderson
    wrote on last edited by
    #455

    SHG in the Man United v Brentford match. 1-0 at HT

    le jeu avant tout

    Am Yisrael Chai

    When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
    But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game...

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Akiva Anderson on last edited by
    #456

    @akiva-anderson we are blessed with people like you Amen!

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Akiva AndersonA Offline
    Akiva AndersonA Offline
    Akiva Anderson
    wrote on last edited by
    #457

    May you all have a blessed Pesach (Passover). Just like when Adonai delivered his people from the bonds of slavery, may your football trading lead you to financial freedom. ✡

    le jeu avant tout

    Am Yisrael Chai

    When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
    But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game...

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
    6
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Ryan on last edited by
    #458

    @ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

    @Martin I think he's ace! Smart bloke, strong tactically.

    but effed up at Bayern Munich , unlike most people in front of him. Dont get it.

    1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Alex Rule on last edited by
    #459

    @alex-rule said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

    Hi all, can anyone recommend the best stats site to find data such as SOT in the FH? I have a FHG strategy that seems to be doing really well and I want to collect extra information to see about refining it and looking for trends. Cheers! Al

    I would say sofascore personally. Download the app.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • RyanR Offline
    RyanR Offline
    Ryan
    replied to Martin on last edited by
    #460

    @Martin I think he's ace! Smart bloke, strong tactically.

    Founder of BTC - Pro Trader - Main Sports Tennis and Football

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
    0

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