The BTC Football Trading Thread

Stuart Capstick

I've had that particular misfortune..
Is Nicaraguan football as bad?

james everard

@stuart-capstick Hi Mate , I done a lay over 2.5 at 10mins in at 2.88 odds as I have noticed not many goals in this league. If you think watching Belarus football is bad try watching the Nicaraguan league would rather stick my genitals in a wasp nest.

Stuart Capstick

Honestly, the best strategy is back U 2.5 or U 3.5 as a bet and forget. Least that way you don't need to watch it.

Watching Belarus for football is like drinking aftershave in place of good wine/whiskey/beer.

james everard

@richard-latimer Out of interest what is your trading plan on the game on now? I know I said I wouldn't trade on these shitty leagues but may get involved in the split stake strategy if it is working profitably ?

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Guys, I wouldn't trust today's teams with more than 1 goal, I couldnt resist the value of evens with o1.5 goals in the last game but took & kept the 0.25pts green.

Would rather lose that profit on this (second) game rather than go for the 2nd or 3rd... Best of luck

Richard Latimer

@pete-smith said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Well... Another shocking performance from the mighty Belarus, hopefully the next one will go to plan!

I had my 8 stage drip plan in place. Got a bit of green.

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Well... Another shocking performance from the mighty Belarus, hopefully the next one will go to plan!

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Today's Belarus Premier League Games

Energettyk-BGU v Gorodeya - My trade of choice will be 50%% Split Stake

Dinamo Minsk v Neman Grodno - My trade of choice will be 50% Split Stake

Be extra vigilant on BOTH GAMES today and make sure you are more than happy with in-play stats & attacking intent before entering. Neither is predicted to have more than 1 goal, so maybe even wait until HT.

Personally am still confident of at least 1 goal in either game, so the later you enter the less red will be incurred on 70/75mins and if then laying 0-0 there will be lower liability.

I won't be able to make it live on the forum today but will be looking for minimum 3 SOT by 35mins and 4 SOT to enter in SH in either game before entering, if I miss entry I will move on.

Entry point 50% = 25/30mins depending on inplay stats

Best of luck!

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@pete-smith said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

My plan for the CD Walter Ferreti v Deportivo Las Sabanas FC lay a goal in the first half, then if 0-0 will lay the score at HT. Will review after 15 minutes if loads of action.

Got out around 20 mins for a small green. Just goes to show how exciting the match is, the live feed on BF is speedway racing!

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My plan for the CD Walter Ferreti v Deportivo Las Sabanas FC lay a goal in the first half, then if 0-0 will lay the score at HT. Will review after 15 minutes if loads of action.

Richard Latimer

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Having watched a game a few weeks ago from this league, I'd only bother with a match involving one of the top teams (BATE, Energetik or Brest- who are up next).

Even then I'd be holding my nose..

Mind you, Nicaragua looks even worse. S**t and corrupt.

Keith was right: Burundi is better in terms of goals.

I’ve stopped until the football season resumes again.

The quiet period is May, June & July every season. This season the quiet period will be March, April & May.

When the football returns it will be non-stop.

I've adapted what I'm doing for the now. Going over 1.5 drips in Nicaragua tonight.

Akiva Anderson

@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Having watched a game a few weeks ago from this league, I'd only bother with a match involving one of the top teams (BATE, Energetik or Brest- who are up next).

Even then I'd be holding my nose..

Mind you, Nicaragua looks even worse. S**t and corrupt.

Keith was right: Burundi is better in terms of goals.

I’ve stopped until the football season resumes again.

The quiet period is May, June & July every season. This season the quiet period will be March, April & May.

When the football returns it will be non-stop.

Ryan

Makes sense, this premier league Wembley games are getting up some traction now!

Richard Latimer

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer I’ve heard Germany are already back in training, will be interesting to see if there is a spike once the countries ahead of us start up again

Yeah I read. Their plan is end of may at the moment behind closed doors.

Martin

@richard-latimer I’ve heard Germany are already back in training, will be interesting to see if there is a spike once the countries ahead of us start up again

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Having watched a game a few weeks ago from this league, I'd only bother with a match involving one of the top teams (BATE, Energetik or Brest- who are up next).

Even then I'd be holding my nose..

Mind you, Nicaragua looks even worse. S**t and corrupt.

Keith was right: Burundi is better in terms of goals.

Burundi not always on betfair. Could do with some stats for it mind. I see Adam has added stats for Nicaragua.

I'm a glutton and taking the over 1.5 on Brest. Then I'm leaving it until Ocotal tonight. If that goes inplay I'm dripping over 1.5 there.

Home scored 70% of the time, away scored 80% of the time and 82% of goals arrived pre 70 mins.

I'm going in with first of many drip bets on over 1.5 for Ocotal after 15 mins.

This one went to plan and I feel I have the basis of a plan in these dark days:

First drip 1/4pt - No earlier than 15 mins and no lower than 1.4
Minimum 1 sot, 1 hit woodwork, 3 shots off, 3 corners, 2 shots off/2 corners

Second drip 1/4pt + 60% higher odds (1.4 means next drip is 1.64)

Third drip 1/4pt + 45% higher odds (last drip being 1.64 means this one is 1.93)

Fourth drip 1/4pt + 30% higher odds (last drip being 1.93 means this one is 2.2)

Fifth drip 1/4pt + 20% higher odds (last drip being 2.2 means this one is 2.44)

Sixth drip 1/4pt + 20% higher odds (last drip being 2.44 means this one is 2.72)

Seventh drip 1/4pt + 20% higher odds (last drip being 2.72 means this one is 3.05)

Eighth drip 1/4pt + 20% higher odds (last drip being 3.05 means this one is 3.45)

If no goal by 70th minute I'll red out so getting up to an 8th drip is highly unlikely but I've kept it there just in case.

By continuing to drip so frequently through the 2nd half for every the potential gain should just keep going up to a point. Liability stays well within control and barring an uncontrollable betfair suspension I should be able to pull a good chunk back on 70 mins if the worst happens and it remains goalless.

So in short, in the above example it's:

Entry point 15 mins 1.4
1.64
1.93
2.2
2.44
2.72
3.05
3.45

Goal at any point before 70, cash
No goal by 70, red

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Having watched a game a few weeks ago from this league, I'd only bother with a match involving one of the top teams (BATE, Energetik or Brest- who are up next).

Even then I'd be holding my nose..

Mind you, Nicaragua looks even worse. S**t and corrupt.

Keith was right: Burundi is better in terms of goals.

Burundi not always on betfair. Could do with some stats for it mind. I see Adam has added stats for Nicaragua.

I'm a glutton and taking the over 1.5 on Brest. Then I'm leaving it until Ocotal tonight. If that goes inplay I'm dripping over 1.5 there.

Home scored 70% of the time, away scored 80% of the time and 82% of goals arrived pre 70 mins.

I'm going in with first of many drip bets on over 1.5 for Ocotal after 15 mins.

Stuart Capstick

Wow! That was almost like a normal match. It had passing, goals and players who seemed to be able to run with the ball and look where team-mates and opponents are located.
Remember those days?

Stuart Capstick

@richard-latimer

Et voila:

https://footystats.org/burundi/burundi-premier-league/form-table

Richard Latimer

@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Having watched a game a few weeks ago from this league, I'd only bother with a match involving one of the top teams (BATE, Energetik or Brest- who are up next).

Even then I'd be holding my nose..

Mind you, Nicaragua looks even worse. S**t and corrupt.

Keith was right: Burundi is better in terms of goals.

Burundi not always on betfair. Could do with some stats for it mind. I see Adam has added stats for Nicaragua.

I'm a glutton and taking the over 1.5 on Brest. Then I'm leaving it until Ocotal tonight. If that goes inplay I'm dripping over 1.5 there.

Home scored 70% of the time, away scored 80% of the time and 82% of goals arrived pre 70 mins.