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The BTC Football Trading Thread

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Football Trading
42.9k Posts 268 Posters 3.4m Views
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #42361

    Looks like Massive value in the Over 2.5 in Naftan game. Naftan have gone over 2.5 100%, Lida 70%. 85% total. Nafta have scored in 100% of games, Lida 80% of games.

    One big red flag:

    Naftan went 4 consecutive 0-0 games before this incredible run.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #42362

    Moving on to Belarus 1st Division I may LTD at some point in the 2nd half on Slonim. Both teams have scored in plennty of matches but stats not good enough for over 1.5 and show no discernable advantage for either team that I can see.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #42363

    Starting with Belarus reserves:

    Isloch Reserves - Doesn't seem much value in the over 1.5 despite this being probable and the away team has only scored in 4 from 6 so not sure value in LTD or LCS. Maybe if drawing @ HT and inplay stats good I may back Isloch.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • RyanR Offline
    RyanR Offline
    Ryan
    wrote on last edited by
    #42364

    Gorodeja v Bate

    Goro 50% Over 0.5 FHG this season at home

    Bate 100% Over 0.5 FHG this season away from home

    Overall 20% 0-0 @ HT

    My original thinking was a FHG goal on this one, the price is currently 1.53 which is higher than my usual entry point, but I am not 100% convinced with the average goal time stats where it puts the goals coming later...

    I will keep an eye on this for 0-0 @ HT then will look for a LTD at HT.

    Founder of BTC - Pro Trader - Main Sports Tennis and Football

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #42365

    Today's Belarus Premier League Games

    Slavia v Minsk - My trade of choice will be 50%% Split Stake

    Gorodeya v BATE - My trade of choice will be 50%% Split Stake

    Shakhtor v Belshina - My trade of choice will be LTD @ HT if still 0-0 and in-play stats show attacking intent.

    For In-Play stats in either game I will be looking for minimum 1 dangerous attack per minute played & 3 SOT by 30/35mins and 4 SOT to enter in SH before entering.

    If in-play stats don't reach 3 SOT by 30 minutes will wait untill HT to enter either LTD or over 0.5 goals

    At HT - If in doubt of goal before 70mins either hold off 2nd stake or wait untill LTD Price hits 1.98/1.95 & Lay for 0.5pts

    At 70mins - If already fully matched with Split Stake & still 0-0 either take the red or LTD at current available odds & Lay same points as in o1.5 goals around 70/75mins & LTD price must be minimum 1.98/1.95 (with this scernario I'm happy to wait until 75mins for better price)

    Before entering if you're in any doubt of risking 2pts you can either lower your staking to a total red of 1 or 0.5pts. so you will either halve or quarter the above staking plan.

    if I miss entry I will move on.

    Entry point 50% Stake = 25/30mins depending on inplay stats

    Best of luck! 👍

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  • RyanR Offline
    RyanR Offline
    Ryan
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #42366

    @richard-latimer yes, its worked for me for years!

    Founder of BTC - Pro Trader - Main Sports Tennis and Football

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Ryan on last edited by
    #42367

    @ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

    @richard-latimer I’m a fan of LTD over LCS just for the odds usually.

    I just don't like the betfair suspend monkey plus the cash out, get nothing when dog scores

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    RyanR 1 Reply Last reply
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  • RyanR Offline
    RyanR Offline
    Ryan
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #42368

    @richard-latimer I’m a fan of LTD over LCS just for the odds usually.

    Founder of BTC - Pro Trader - Main Sports Tennis and Football

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Ryan on last edited by
    #42369

    @ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

    @pete-smith nicely done!!

    I laid draw in the end @ 1.98. May start laying draw more often as opposed to the correct score.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    RyanR 1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • RyanR Offline
    RyanR Offline
    Ryan
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #42370

    @pete-smith nicely done!!

    Founder of BTC - Pro Trader - Main Sports Tennis and Football

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    replied to Ryan on last edited by
    #42371

    @ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

    God that’s a boring game and it’s going against my research so I’ll be staying away from it. Unless something changes!

    B2L one of the nags at Tampa Bay Downs during HT and made a nice green... multi-tasking! 😂

    RyanR 1 Reply Last reply
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  • RyanR Offline
    RyanR Offline
    Ryan
    wrote on last edited by
    #42372

    God that’s a boring game and it’s going against my research so I’ll be staying away from it. Unless something changes!

    Founder of BTC - Pro Trader - Main Sports Tennis and Football

    ? 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #42373

    😴

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • S Offline
    S Offline
    Stuart Capstick
    wrote on last edited by
    #42374

    That O 1.5 price though....

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #42375

    And now for the big one! 😂

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to james everard on last edited by
    #42376

    @james-everard said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

    @richard-latimer I was going to lay over 3.5 goals but no edge in the market as lay price at half time is 3.25 wait for the later game and see your views on that how to trade

    I'm waiting until HT and if 0-0 will go for a potential 2nd half goal should inplay stats suggest there will be one.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • J Offline
    J Offline
    james everard
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #42377

    @richard-latimer I was going to lay over 3.5 goals but no edge in the market as lay price at half time is 3.25 wait for the later game and see your views on that how to trade

    https://1drv.ms/x/s!AgAENvh6njGR8wT6kcGOYgHyGFQq?e=Zo3Tic

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #42378

    Way too early with Minsk. Just have to wait and see if Neman is 0-0 @ HT now.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    J 1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • J Offline
    J Offline
    james everard
    wrote on last edited by
    #42379

    Anyone looking at the big match at 4pm in Belarus. With only 5 games played hard to analyse the data for this season. But it appears not many games are having goals in the 3rd quarter , so if there has been a goal or two at half time and inplay stats suggest unlikely to be a deluge in the second half maybe lay the over market .No goals have been scored between the 46th and 70th minute. Any other ideas to trade this game ?

    https://1drv.ms/x/s!AgAENvh6njGR8wT6kcGOYgHyGFQq?e=Zo3Tic

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #42380

    I've backed the Slavia Mozyr v FC Minsk reserves for a FH goal, I fancy Minsk to score early doors.

    1 Reply Last reply
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