The BTC Football Trading Thread

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Am on a 3 goal dutch with Korean game 2-1, 1-2, 3-0 & 0-3 be nice if it could slow down a tad lol... Could take small green now but will try to ride to 60mins without removing red... Obviously will green up immediately if/on 3rd goal

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Pohang Steelers was on my radar but I don't like the fact it's 1-0 already to the favourite. May just leave this now. Not sure.

In favour, away team has scored in 80% of games and 80% go over 1.5 so it's still a possibility. 60% go over 2.5, 60% H2 over 1.5, 55% H2 BTTS and 57% goals scored after 60 mins. Talking myself into it here. These are quite strong second half stats.

Ave first goal time in second half is 65th min so maybe get in after 61 if I'm going to at all.

Now it's 1-1 I won't be laying anything over evens. With those late goal stats and a 60% over 2.5 for past results I may do a late LTD though for sure.

james everard

Looking at the fixtures for the weekend I see on flash scores three more leagues resuming/starting up. The Armenian , Czech and Hungarian.

Richard Latimer

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer interested to know your approach on this- would this be a set and forget or would you trade out at a certain point. Never used the 1X2 market before

There was a guy on here a long time ago who had great success mainly just backing and cashing out on a lead. Sometimes he would leave it in for a bit but almost always he would cash out. Had a good 80%+ s/r if I recall and odds average.

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@richard-latimer interested to know your approach on this- would this be a set and forget or would you trade out at a certain point. Never used the 1X2 market before

Richard Latimer

Pohang Steelers was on my radar but I don't like the fact it's 1-0 already to the favourite. May just leave this now. Not sure.

In favour, away team has scored in 80% of games and 80% go over 1.5 so it's still a possibility. 60% go over 2.5, 60% H2 over 1.5, 55% H2 BTTS and 57% goals scored after 60 mins. Talking myself into it here. These are quite strong second half stats.

Ave first goal time in second half is 65th min so maybe get in after 61 if I'm going to at all.

Richard Latimer

@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I'll be keeping my eye on these tonight:

LTD if 0-0 @ HT

17:30 - Nurnberg v Aue
19:30 - Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin

I like the look of Nurnberg on the 1x2 market. Think I may start trying to do a bit more of this. Aue don't score (4 matches in last 10). Nurnberg score in almost every game 8/10. H2H concurs and also 2-1 predicted on forebet (just checked).

james everard

Morning all

Trading plan for Friday 22nd of May

11.30pm South Korea K1- Pohang vs Seoul ( late goal expected so either ltd , lcs or back overs on 79mins)

12noon Belarus Reserve League - Slutsk2 vs Rukh Brest2 ( split stake over 1.5 goal strategy on 30mins if 0-0)

12noon Belarus Reserve League - Vitebsk2 vs Din Minsk2 (split stake over 2.5 goal strategy)

17.30pm German Bundesliga 2- Numberg vs Ave ( Split stake over 1.5 goal strategy or ltd/lcs on 60mins if 0-0)

19.30pm German Bundesliga - Hertha Berlin vs Union Berlin ( Split Stake over 2.5 goal strategy)

Ryan

I'll be keeping my eye on these tonight:

LTD if 0-0 @ HT

17:30 - Nurnberg v Aue
19:30 - Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin

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Other than what I've posted re Belarus my filters haven't picked up anything today... Will be looking for a combination of 3 or 4 goal Dutching trades for the South Korean game and the 3 German games

Probably as;

Pohang v Seoul - 3 goal Dutch
Nurnberg v Aue - 3 goal Dutch
Heidenheim v Wehen - 3/4? goal Dutch
Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin - 3/4? goal Dutch

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Today's Belarus Premier League Games

Slavia v Gorodeya - No specific trade before start of play watch the game or stats to see if any opportunity unfolds - If deciding to trade in-play Small stakes/Low odds recommended

Shakhtor v Belshina - Trade of choice will be 25% Split Stake

For In-Play stats in either game I will be looking for minimum 1 dangerous attack per minute played & 1 SOT by 10/15mins to enter 25% Split Stake and 4/5 SOT before entering any SH Trade.

Split Stake using either 4 x's 25% stakes enter around 10/15mins @ say
25% stake back o1.5 goals @ 1.40
25% stake back o1.5 goals @ 1.65
25% stake back o1.5 goals @ 1.90
25% stake back o1.5 goals @ 2.16
The starting stake will be whatever is offered at the time of entry.

At 70/75mins - Take the red

Before entering if you're in any doubt of risking 1pts you can either lower your staking to a total red of 0.5 or 0.25pts. so you will either halve or quarter to the above staking plan.

If I miss entry I will move on.

Best of luck!

0_1590135857605_Slavia v Gorodeya.JPG

0_1590135867857_Shak v Belshina.JPG

Akiva Anderson

Trading List for Friday, 22nd May:

FHG:

17:30 - Nurnberg v Aue

LTD if 0-0 or 1-1 at HT:

19:30 - Hertha Berlin v Union Berlin

LCS if 0-0, 0-1 or 1-1 at HT:

17:30 - Nurnberg v Aue
17:30 - Heidenheim v Wehen

Richard Latimer

@alan-steward I might check it out though

Richard Latimer

@alan-steward wasn't me

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@richard-latimer I will check out Odds Portal, obviously when we are in full swing our Stats Filter will help us out more.

I've been using the Forebet site (which I believe you put me onto) and Soccerstats.com to assess my trades in the Belarus league, and its started paying off.

Forebet predicted a 4 goal game with Neman and whilst I didnt quite see that I ended up doing a 4 goal Dutch at HT (3-1, 2-2 & 1-3) on the bassis that I only needed 1 goal for scratch but ended up with 120% ROI.

Richard Latimer

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@james-everard Personally mate I'm not seeing too much value within Estonian odds... Maybe others see more, I was taught in my early years of trading that "If the value isn't there to start with it never will be"... I looked to LCS that game yesterday on around 75mins and I believe it was still over 2.0!!!

I like this. So far all my records show the lower the odds for an over the more likely you are to see a surprise result......or an early goal which means it's null and void. I look on oddsportal.com at H2 over 0.5 odds and if it breaches 1.11 I will leave it. So far I have 1.12 and up as being the ideal. I may well increase this further in due course but it will be a trial and error thing.

Richard Latimer

@james-everard said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@dan-erridge said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Hi guys
What a people’s thoughts on more than 1trade in a match, for example yesterday I did fhg in Bate game, then ltd at 70mins, both decisions were stats based and in keeping with in play stats, just wondered people’s thoughts on this

Cheers dan

i fell foul to over trading a Estonian match yesterday mate. It was on my filters for over 2.5 and 1.5goal strategies which both lost and ended up chasing loses my laying the draw ended 0-0. I am going to be very careful trading Estonian football as like Richard has said it is either 8-0 or 0-0. Think with Estonia dutching the correct score market could be a possibility instead. From now on just one trade per game for me anyway

Trying to recover almost never works. I'm happy to recover on my team lays as the stats tell me it works but it almost never works on anything else and the times it does just helps me to forget all the times it didn't.

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Was just wondering if to do a correct score with Neman match... Thought wait till HT and give it a go then the second goal... Only fancied 2-1, 1-2 or 0-3 could have scratched on the second goal... Ah well, onwards and upwards, first goal was too early for me... Catch you all later

james everard

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@james-everard Personally mate I'm not seeing too much value within Estonian odds... Maybe others see more, I was taught in my early years of trading that "If the value isn't there to start with it never will be"... I looked to LCS that game yesterday on around 75mins and I believe it was still over 2.0!!!

Nor have i mate noticed that yesterday the favourites odds far too low at kick over and the goals markets also not looking tempting. With so many unexpected results as well strange league and Richard Latimer said yesterday watching the game he couldn't tell who was the odds on favourite.

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My trading plan for the weekend

Friday
Over 2.5 with one stake after 20 and 30 min.

18:30
Nurnberg v Aue

Lay The Draw second half @ 2.5 with one stake

12:30
Pohang v Seoul

18:30
Nurnberg v Aue

Saturday
Over 2.5 with one stake after 20 and 30 min.

13:00
Sandhausen v Regensburg

15:30
Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen
Freiburg v Werder Bremen
Padeborn v Hoffenheim

Lay The Draw second half @ 2.5 with one stake

09:30
Suwon v Incheon

12:00
Sangju v Gwangju

15:30
Monchengladbach v Bayer Leverkusen
Freiburg v Werder Bremen
Wolfsburg v Dortmund

Sunday
Over 2.5 with one stake after 20 and 30 min.

18:00
Koln v Dusseldorf

Lay The Draw second half @ 2.5 with one stake

09:30
Jeonbuk v Daegu

12:00
Ulsan v Busan

13:30
Hamburger v Arminia
Holstein Kiel v Stuttgart

18:00
Koln v Dusseldorf

Happy trading!