The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Also going for a SHG in the Newry v Glentoran match. 0-1 at HT
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Going for a SHG in the Coleraine v Cliftonville March. 1-2 at HT
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Going for a SHG in the Leverkusen v Wolfsburg match. 1-1 at HT
Didn't take long
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Going for a SHG in the Leverkusen v Wolfsburg match. 1-1 at HT
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Full list of todays Lay Under 1.5's omitting Nurnberg:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Lay Under 1.5 Sogndal
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5 Nurnberg
This looks to be a poor trade made from nothing more than impulse and what the data might be showing me before I had fully finished investigating!
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@mr-emmet-moorehouse The issue is that the spread of the results is also important to whether a strategy is profitable aswell. Lets presume a filter that needs O1.5 in 8/10 games at which point we will lay for 1 point at odds of 5.0. Manchester Reds come flying out and hit O1.5 in 10/10 games, we have missed all those games as trades but suddenly they start hitting the filters so we trade them and the next 3 all lose at a loss of 12 points! They would then drop off the filters (the self-correcting part) but once they hit 8 games over 1.5 in a rolling 10 game period then they would then appear on the filters again. Even with a couple of winners, then one or two more losers would make the loss catastrophic!
This is quite a simplistic example but my point really is that if a team/league is inconsistent then you could always be trading at the bad points (the losses which cause the team to drop-off the filter, ie the self-correction) and missing the run of good results which causes the team/league to hit the filter in the first place.
in other words trading is pointless
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Lay Under 1.5 Nurnberg
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@nick-allan yes
well problem solved then surely? of course its better to test them in a live situation but thats going to take what..........a year, and lets be honest in a years time you guys will be focusing on something else?
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@miha-povhe you can find the filters and how to download (watch the video in opening post) here: https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/3286/set-forget-football-strategies-community-collaboration-project
Let me know what strategies you want my selections from and I will share them with you
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@martin Hey! i'm new to this community and i'm struggling a bit on where to find the data that i need. Also i'm having some difficulties using the softwares. Is there any chance anybody could tell me how to implement Dan's LTD to my football softwares as a filter? Also i loved getting Martin's daily trading advice now i'm struggling without it.
Sorry if i dislocated my comment ona post that is unrelevant but i didnt find te button to post it globally :).Thanks for your help boiz, helpin me a lot.
Regards,
Miha -
@nick-allan yes
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@mr-emmet-moorehouse The issue is that the spread of the results is also important to whether a strategy is profitable aswell. Lets presume a filter that needs O1.5 in 8/10 games at which point we will lay for 1 point at odds of 5.0. Manchester Reds come flying out and hit O1.5 in 10/10 games, we have missed all those games as trades but suddenly they start hitting the filters so we trade them and the next 3 all lose at a loss of 12 points! They would then drop off the filters (the self-correcting part) but once they hit 8 games over 1.5 in a rolling 10 game period then they would then appear on the filters again. Even with a couple of winners, then one or two more losers would make the loss catastrophic!
This is quite a simplistic example but my point really is that if a team/league is inconsistent then you could always be trading at the bad points (the losses which cause the team to drop-off the filter, ie the self-correction) and missing the run of good results which causes the team/league to hit the filter in the first place.
Isn't that just normal football: downturn or no downturn,teams can have a bad run now and then? And shouldn't it balance out over a large enough sample, even if it happens in a few leagues at the same time? The alternative would be that there is no clear advantage in basing trades on prior stats. But that cannot be the case as we have many profitable stats-based traders here, so the basic approach is valid.
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@lee-woodman that’s a great point which is so obvious when you think about it but I hadn’t thought about it
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@mr-emmet-moorehouse The issue is that the spread of the results is also important to whether a strategy is profitable aswell. Lets presume a filter that needs O1.5 in 8/10 games at which point we will lay for 1 point at odds of 5.0. Manchester Reds come flying out and hit O1.5 in 10/10 games, we have missed all those games as trades but suddenly they start hitting the filters so we trade them and the next 3 all lose at a loss of 12 points! They would then drop off the filters (the self-correcting part) but once they hit 8 games over 1.5 in a rolling 10 game period then they would then appear on the filters again. Even with a couple of winners, then one or two more losers would make the loss catastrophic!
This is quite a simplistic example but my point really is that if a team/league is inconsistent then you could always be trading at the bad points (the losses which cause the team to drop-off the filter, ie the self-correction) and missing the run of good results which causes the team/league to hit the filter in the first place.
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@martin Ive had a look at my figures from my SHG filter and there was a definite drop-off in Sweden and Norway last October compared to September and the same has happened this year. To be honest the 4 leagues are a bit sporadic at the best of times and they do make me a little nervous but your suggestion at an effect from the weather could be true
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Theres definitely some better prices available in the SH goal markets! Not every market and every game but several games in Holland hitting decent prices tonight. Perhaps an over-reaction to the drop-off in SR and maybe even a good time to profit IF you can select the right games
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Ive had a quick look at all the results i have across all my filters and there has definitely been a drop off in SR's.
These are just the sum total of the figures for my strategies, either those im testing or my main trading strategies but it gives a pretty decent snapshot. Obviously im doing a deeper dive to go into it but at least i can see there genuinely has been a drop-off
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@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@nick-allan I want to test Dan's LTD over Winter leagues for a few months as it's only been done on Summer leagues.
Also refined some of the strategies that were struggling (BTTS and Over 1.5 Backs) give them a chance for redemption before moving on, got enough very promising ones that I don't really have to hold on to any bad ones.
as a note to this I haven't removed any winter leagues yet as need more data on those, I think that's a theme for me on a lot of these strategies
@martin once we have the backtesting in place like the horse software wouldnt that show a years plus worth of past results?
