The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Be good to know how people approach LTD when a goal is scored. Often it is not worth trading out straight away- how do people maximise profits? If i am only taking half of my stake in profit each time then the strike rate would have to be brilliant to even make profit long term. Looks good saying 'win' next to the trade plan but if you have two 'wins' and then one 'loss' it often doesnt show the bigger picture- that loss could be more than the two 'wins' combined.
You only have three options:
1: Let it run
2: Trade out when a goal is scored
3: Remove your liability only -
LTD Augsburg after 53mins. If a goal comes before then I go again 10 minutes leter.
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@john-hurst I have a maximum of 3 going on at 1 time. I’m a member of another site that has all necessary in play stats live so have that site up on screen on separate tab.
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@allan-birch how do you manage to keep track of every game?
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@john-hurst If I feel the leading side is well on top I will sometimes just cover my stake so guaranteed scratch. If the leading team goes onto win you get around 75% profit instead of 50% just a judgment call really.
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Be good to know how people approach LTD when a goal is scored. Often it is not worth trading out straight away- how do people maximise profits? If i am only taking half of my stake in profit each time then the strike rate would have to be brilliant to even make profit long term. Looks good saying 'win' next to the trade plan but if you have two 'wins' and then one 'loss' it often doesnt show the bigger picture- that loss could be more than the two 'wins' combined.
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@liam-willis the one that let me down massively was a LTD on the werder monch game last night. Wasnt on trading plan but the inplay was good and the game was end to end with plenty of chances. Suppose thats what happens sometimes- the goal just doesnt come. That basically wiped all my profits from the evening which was hard to take really
That’s what wrecked me last night mate and tipped me over the edge and same wasn’t on my plan and wiped out a good night. Lesson learnt.
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer true however both had only had 1 0-0 all season before now so there was a 90%+ chance of it not being 0-0
Just means they concede a bunch against teams who are able to punish them. When neither team is able to punish you end up with what we saw. This is what tends to happen whenever I see it anyway and I always notice a difference when my teams score as opposed to mainly concede.
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@john-hurst sorry mate I didn’t see your question this morning. I do both when I can but if I get distracted by my son I just LCS that way I don’t have to care if there’s an equaliser. Hope that makes sense.
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@richard-latimer true however both had only had 1 0-0 all season before now so there was a 90%+ chance of it not being 0-0
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
FHG strike rate has been appalling of late. Also left the LTD in the Leipzig game when they went 2-1- didnt fancy scratching it as Hertha weren't showing any attacking threat. Then they go and get another one of those dodgy pens where they deliberately make contact with defender. took the loss in the st Pauli LTD at 65 so thats something i guess.
I too did St. Pauli but it honestly comes down to how many these 2 score over 90 mins for me and on reflection not enough. Between them they managed to score 65% of the time right from the off. Take off the first half and even if you allow a greater amount for the 2nd half it's hardly at all.
Tightening up again for tomorrow although this one was no great loss.
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3 LTD secured at Leipzig Bochum and Hannover more than covered FHG loss at Bochum. Gonna split stake 1st half goal at Hoffenheim and see how the rest of the 1st halves go.
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FHG strike rate has been appalling of late. Also left the LTD in the Leipzig game when they went 2-1- didnt fancy scratching it as Hertha weren't showing any attacking threat. Then they go and get another one of those dodgy pens where they deliberately make contact with defender. took the loss in the st Pauli LTD at 65 so thats something i guess.
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Happy start to Wednesday with the early games. Missed the FHG at Leipzig as it came to early and took a loss on FHG at Bochum but have recovered with both LTD’s coming thru in those two matches plus the LCS at Leipzig. Waited till 60 to enter at lay odds of 4.20.
Nothing now till possible LTD’s and a LCS from list. -
St Pauli looks exciting haha
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Backed Augsburg @ 2.04
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Then both score with practically the 1st kick of the 2nd half,you couldn't make.it up
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LTD Bochum after 61 and LTD Liepzig after 57. If the goal comes earlier I'll wait 10 mins before laying the under 1.5/3.5 respectively. Never before original entry point however.
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LTD Hannover after 61mins. If away go 0-1 before then I'll lay under 1.5 after a wait of 10 mins. If another goal before then I'll move on.
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Bundesliga ll picking up where it left off saturday I see
