The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Will be trading a 3 Goal Dutch with the following games this evening.
Dutching - 3-0, 2-1, 1-2 & 0-3
The trade, dutch 0.25pts before kick off and 0.25pts on 15/20mins if good attacking intent. Will remove red on 2 goals hopefully hold out until 60/65mins... If 2 early goals consider greening up around HT... LCS if 0-0 or 1 goal when odds on correct score reach 1.98 to cover Correct Score red and game shows good attacking intent.
Maximum liability in any game equals 1 pt so stake where/if comfortable.
AGF v Randers
Should comfortably reach 2 goals, last night I managed to back O2.5 goals @2.1 for 0.25pts as cover for potential goal frenzy game or additional trade.Stuttgart v Hamburg
Will watch start of game before entering.
If happy with stats will Dutch 0.25/0.5pts -
@keith-anderson Should be a decent game, both teams playing for 2nd spot... Will be looking for a 3 Goal Dutch with this one
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I’ll probably do a LCS trade in the Stuttgart v Hamburg match tonight. I think both teams will go for it. A bit like a cup final!
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Nice and early this time. Thur trading plan.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Just updated everything for the first time in ages.
Need to get back in the habit of this as it's the only way I'll find my patterns of what works and what doesn't.
My pre lockdown/covid 2nd half goal filter is down a couple points since the resumption but nothing crazy.
My lockdown/covid allowance 2nd half goal filter which is not as strict would be up around 2-3 points based on the way I should have played things and at least began to today.
My unders project as we'll call it is ticking along nicely after a couple days. 1 green, 1 small red.
My backs which had been in the green have gone into the minus slightly after Augsburg today.
All in all I think I should be confident.
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Results for today
FHG
Bochum v Kiel Loss
Leipzig v Hertha NO TRADE GOAL TO EARLYLTD
Bochum v Kiel WIN
Leipzig v Hertha WIN
Hoffenheim v Koln NO TRADE
Union Berlin v Mainz NO TRADE RED CARD
Augsburg v Paderborn LOSSLCS
Leipzig v Hertha WIN
Augsburg v Paderborn LOSS -
@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer lol, mate I hate to see anybody lose trades and rest assured I have mine... I didnt get Werder right last night but luckily i managed to trade out of it with green... I have my red days, just work really hard to get more green days... It will all balance itself out if you keep doing consistent things.
I know mate haha!!
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To be fair Frodes FHG has been on fire it has to lose from time to time.
I've found the best thing to do is stay consistent, ie keep backing his filter and ride the variance.. If you drift in and out of it you might keep going back into the losing ones.
Word of advice... Track them all on a spreadsheet and see how well they convert into winning trades... I export all my filters and log them on a spreadsheet
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Well if we're all in a mood to dissect the day this is what happened for me and what should have happened:
Seoul E-Land vs Anyang 0-0 HT/Plan to LTD went to pot as Anyang scored early but another look at the stats told me there should be another goal. Home scored 9/10 and over 1.5 90%. Laid under 1.5 and Anyang scored again to make it 0-2 for a win.
Jeonnam Dragons vs Chungnam Asan 0-0 HT/Plan to LTD out the window again as away scored. Stats for another goal good. Not quite as good as Seould but before I could decide 100% home had made it 1-1. Home had scored 8/10 and over 1.5 was 80%. Faced with the same decision in future I will have already made the contingency and would lay under 1.5. Missed opportunity.
17:00 Plan to lay over 2.5 if goal scored before 30 mins in Bohemians. It was. Laid @ 1.58. 2nd goal scored. Hung on til HT and took small red. This was always the plan. A full red unlikely (had only happened 10% of the time) but even if a 3rd was scored this wasn't the end of the world.
Bochum & Leipzig both drawing. Plan to Ltd but take lay on next under if goal came too quick. Goal in Bochum came immediately so waited and laid under 0.5. Laid draw in Leipzig on 57. Red card came, Liepzig scored. Took smaller green because of red card.
St. Pauli 0-0 HT. LTD. No shots on target. 0-0 FT. Wouldn't trade this one again. Inplay stats poor but more than that scoring stats for both teams decidedly average.
Backed Augsburg hoping to green up at 1-0. Never happened but I would make the same back again at those odds.
Sparta Prague 0-1 @ HT. Stats to suggest another goal. Sparta have scored 8/10 and over 1.5 is 95%. Goal way too early but it's for away side once more. Back to the stats. Over 2.5 is 70% here. Laid under 2.5. Goal 1-2 and a win.
LTD Augsburg on 53mins. Grand finale. 0-0. Double whammy.
So ended on a pt loss. Should have been small green without St. Pauli and a larger green if pulling trigger on Jeonnam early enough. This is despite the Augsburg result.
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@james-everard said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Trading plan for today, i have adjusted my filters as i think it was far to detailed, gives me good data without going over the top. Can analalise inplay to make the judement if ok to to trade
BACK OVER 1.5 GOAL SPLIT STAKE STRATEGY
17.30pm German Bundesliga 2- Bochum vs Holstein Kiel ( TRADE WON)
19.00pm Czech Republic liga 1- Sparta Prague vs Plzen (NO TRADE)
19.30pm German Bundesliga- Union Berlin vs Mainz ( NO TRADE)
19.30pm German Bundesliga- Hoffenheim vs Fc Koln ( NO TRADE)LTD AT HALF TIME IF 0-0 OR 1-1
17.30pm German Bundesliga - Rb Leipzig vs Hertha Berlin ( TRADE WON)
17.30pm German Bundesliga 2- Bochum vs Holstein Kiel ( TRADE WON)
19.00pm Czech Republic liga 1- Sparta Prague vs Plzen (NO TRADE)
19.00pm Faroe Islands Prem- Nsi Runavik vs If Fuglafjordur (NO TRADE)
19.30pm German Bundesliga- Union Berlin vs Mainz (TRADE LOST)
19.30pm German Bundesliga- Augsburg vs Paderborn (NO TRADE)
19.30pm German Bundesliga- Hoffenheim vs Fc Koln (NO TRADE)LTD FOR HALF TIME OR BACK OVER 0.5 FIRST HALF GOALS
19.30pm German Bundesliga- Hoffenheim vs Fc Koln (NO TRADE GOAL TO EARLY)SPLIT STAKE 2.5 GOAL STRATEGY
17.30pm German Bundesliga - Rb Leipzig vs Hertha Berlin ( NO TRADE GOAL TO EARLY)
17.30pm German Bundesliga 2- Bochum vs Holstein Kiel ( TRADE LOST )
19.30pm German Bundesliga- Hoffenheim vs Fc Koln (NO TRADE GOAL TO EARLY)BACK UNDER 3.5 GOALS IF GOAL IN THE 1ST 15MINS
17.30pm German Bundesliga 2- St Pauli vs Heidenheim ( NO TRADE)LCS IF 0-0 AT HALF TIME
17.00pm Czech Rep Liga 1- Ceske Budejovice vs Liberec ( TRADE WON)
17.30pm German Bundesliga 2- Bochum vs Holstein Kiel ( TRADE WON)
17.30pm German Bundesliga - Rb Leipzig vs Hertha Berlin ( NO TRADE)
19.30pm German Bundesliga- Union Berlin vs Mainz (NO TRADE)
19.30pm German Bundesliga- Hoffenheim vs Fc Koln ( NO TRADE)LTD/LCS ON 60MINS
17.30pm German Bundesliga - Rb Leipzig vs Hertha Berlin (TRADE WON)
17.30pm German Bundesliga 2- Bochum vs Holstein Kiel (TRADE WON)
19.30pm German Bundesliga- Union Berlin vs Mainz ( TRADE LOST) -
@richard-latimer lol, mate I hate to see anybody lose trades and rest assured I have mine... I didnt get Werder right last night but luckily i managed to trade out of it with green... I have my red days, just work really hard to get more green days... It will all balance itself out if you keep doing consistent things.
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@john-hurst just strange times mate the leagues will take a bit to settle. Good idea to ditch the FHG’s for a bit especially when you’re learning just keep it simple. You might even find you’re happier just doing split stake O1.5. Find what you enjoy trading the most and just stick with that to improve as a trader.
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@dan-erridge its what makes this site valuable mate
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For me personally being new to this,this is what is great about this forum,people talking about bad nights and helping each other,with ideas and mentality,its all easy to talk after a night where it's all gone swimmingly,but sometimes after a bad night you need a pick up
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Tonight’s results. Probably have a small green, but could have been so much better. I have no need to get involved in the last two matches.
The Union Berlin match was 1-1 there was a red card. No need for me to get involved, but I did.
Augsburg match looked poor. I was channel flicking between this and the Union Berlin match. Again, no need to get involved, but I did. My trading should’ve been finished when the 5:30pm matches finished!
I’ll make up for it on Friday!
LTD if 0-0 or 1-1 at HT:
17:30 - Hannover v Karlsruher - HT: 0-0 / FT: 1-1 (Won)
17:30 - Bochum v Holstein Kiel - HT: 0-0 / FT: 2-1 (Won)
17:30 - Leipzg v Hertha Berlin - HT: 1-1 / FT: 2-2 (Won)
19:00 - Sparta Prha v Plzen - HT: 0-1 / FT: (No Trade)
19:30 - Union Berlin v Mainz - HT: 1-1 / FT: 1-1 (Loss)
19:30 - Augsburg v Paderborn - HT: 0-0 / FT: 0-0 (Loss)
19:30 - Hoffenheim v Koln - HT: 1-0 / FT: 3-1 (No Trade)LCS if 0-0, 0-1 or 1-1 at HT:
11:00 - Jeonnam Dragons v Asan - HT: 0-0 / FT: 1-1 (Won)
17:00 - Bohemians v Teplice - HT: 2-0 / FT: 4-0 (No Trade)
17:30 - Leipzg v Hertha Berlin - HT: 1-1 / FT: 2-2 (Won)
17:30 - Hannover v Karlsruher - HT: 0-0 / FT: 1-1 (Won)
19:30 - Augsburg v Paderborn - HT: 0-0 / FT: 0-0 (Loss) -
@liam-willis wil stick at it mate and keep it simple as always
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@john-hurst ive had a couple of bad runs scaling back and keeping things simple is the best way
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Think I broke even tonight.
Do you think it's the lack of fans or just one of those weeks?
Could be one of those weeks, especially the German games who aren’t used to playing 3 league games in a week. Squad rotation maybe played a part.
Could be fatigue maybe, coming to the end of a long season
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Also, added to what Keith has said, this is like the start of a new season. The players are not at the level they would be after 10 games.
The start of the season always throws up odd results.Honestly, it is difficult when you start, but you need to think of this as a gradual long term process. Any strategy will have downturns.
