The BTC Football Trading Thread
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I missed Viking but I'm going to try and get in 2nd half @ 6.2
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@karl-pick thats cracking Karl thank you
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VAR actually getting it right!!!
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Also going for a SHG in the Southampton v West Ham match. 1-0 at HT
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Going for a SHG in the Spezia v Cremonese match. 2-1 at HT
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Going for a SHG in the Auxerre v Nice match. 1-1 at HT
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@nick-allan ...there is some brilliant advice on here, but I use the 'What has to happen theory'
For example on my Over 1.5 goals Criteria, I have
1....Over FT 1.5
2...Home Over 1.5
3...Away over 1.5
4...Away concede 2+
5...Home Score 2+
6..BTTS
You can decide your own % or greater for each category hope this helps? -
Lay Under 1.5 Sturm
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@nick-allan Morning Nick. Firstly I am deff not a pro but I can understand where you are as I have been there too.
You seem to be trying to learn the nuances of a lot of different strategies and markets all at once. I won't say you should or should not but it will take longer to gain the knowledge this way.
Drilling down is not as hard as we like to make it. Use Ryan's 'What has to happen?' question to help.
For example lets take those over 2.5 trades:
Altach v Hartberg and Ostrava v Slovako.
Have a look at the last 5 home games for the homes teams and away games for the away teams. See how often each of them has gone O2.5, you might find one of them is only 1 in 5 or something like that.
Check the home and away form, you might find that both teams go over 2.5 a lot but only because they concede lots. They might both really struggle to score, could be a red flag.
Check to make sure top scorers are not injured.
Look at previous head to head record.All of these things add up to build a picture of how you might think the game will go.
Hope this helps a little, I am sure some of the more experienced members can offer much more than me
Matt thats fantastic and exactly the kind of guidanace im looking for. I am aware of variance and of course this bloody world cup is causing issues but october has really fallen off a cliff for me and i think my main issue is too many selections the filter chucks out
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@nick-allan Morning Nick. Firstly I am deff not a pro but I can understand where you are as I have been there too.
You seem to be trying to learn the nuances of a lot of different strategies and markets all at once. I won't say you should or should not but it will take longer to gain the knowledge this way.
Drilling down is not as hard as we like to make it. Use Ryan's 'What has to happen?' question to help.
For example lets take those over 2.5 trades:
Altach v Hartberg and Ostrava v Slovako.
Have a look at the last 5 home games for the homes teams and away games for the away teams. See how often each of them has gone O2.5, you might find one of them is only 1 in 5 or something like that.
Check the home and away form, you might find that both teams go over 2.5 a lot but only because they concede lots. They might both really struggle to score, could be a red flag.
Check to make sure top scorers are not injured.
Look at previous head to head record.All of these things add up to build a picture of how you might think the game will go.
Hope this helps a little, I am sure some of the more experienced members can offer much more than me
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@martin and you say you can look further but what am i looking for? or do i just trade these blindly? i understand that i need input into this but im juts looking for saome guidenace on what to look for from a pro like yourself, and of course other pros.....its why i love this community we help one another and im a bit rudderless
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@martin I trade the following ............ ELO HOME (lay away team) O1.5 (although im considering dropping this), O2.5, U3.5, Dan LTD
I also have a SHG and FHG stratgies that i have been trdaing with low stakes, and ive been looking at 3/4 what i feel is key performance metrics but i have no idea if they are the right ones
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@nick-allan to make it simple, which strategy do you want to trade from the ones presented? This shortlist is the recommended games to trade from each strategy, so you can look further into them but I have already narrowed the list from 100+ selections in the initial import.
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@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Today's Shortlist: 0_1665910822345_all_filter_results(14).csv
Click the picture to unblur it, I think the forum censors it because these are some sexy picks!
Is fantastic to get these options and as you said in previous post Martin the these need to be drilled down to look for trading opportunities, I think the problem is that me personally I don't know what I'm looking for when I'm drilling down. So I've been following the set and forget strategies and creating filters for them and at the weekend there are a larger number of selections, now ive been trading them all and this month that has been an absolute disaster as I've taken a bath on most of them. But the problem is how do I drill down selections? what is it that I'm looking for? for example the ELO home (which if you look at the strategy results it's better to lay the away team) So what am I looking for in the away team? am I looking for a poor away performance? Am I then looking for a strong home performance? And I think this is where we could possibly get the best out of the community where maybe you could identify why you are choosing these selections and on what basis. So I'm going for over 1.5 goals because of X,Y and Z, if that makes sense? I've been doing deep analysis on my first half goal strategy as a strike rate has been moving around a lot and the things that I've been looking for is H2H percentages FHG, shots on target from previous 10 games, and average total goals for both teams in the first half. But I don't even know if that's the correct stats I should be looking at. I think it would be highly valuable with professional traders like yourself and Ryan to provide us with a bit of direction on what to look for with each strategy, what do you think?
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Going for a SHG in the Atalanta v Sassuolo match. 1-1 at HT
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
have a good night mate.
Dont know if it is my time of the month, but some real stunners walking around Bury St Edmonds town centre today.
Your time of the month
At my age, testosterone has to be rationed .
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Went for a SHG in the Torino v Juventus match. 0-0 at HT
