The BTC Football Trading Thread
-
Belgium on fire this evening - goals galore.
-
Going for a SHG in the Brighton v Forest match. 0-0 at HT
-
@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@andy-donnelly said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Thanks Keith/Ryan.
I’ve been doing some data analysis today and I’m not convinced the World Cup affect is the reason my O1.5 and SHG filters are doing terribly this month.
Norway and Sweden have plummeted this month for me over the top 2 divisions. If I remove those leagues I would actually be in profit this month. I wonder whether it’s the end of season impact for me that I need to look at. Neither country is in the World Cup and would imagine the vast majority of players in these leagues are home grown so don’t think I can put this down to the world cup…yet at least!
I think you have found same as me, those leagues are to be avoided in October, end of season plus very cold weather (which is why they end their season this time of year!)
Yep, same here, Norway and Sweden had been very good up until October and they’ve since gone absolutely shocking (minus 30 points this month)! The strategy would otherwise have been profitable
-
@martin Yeh, I find it hard to discount games in those leagues when I can see there is still something to play for. My logic is that there should be an up tick in goals rather than less, but I suppose either way these games become more unpredictable, which is not what we are after! Definitely something for me to learn from moving forward
-
@andy-donnelly said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Thanks Keith/Ryan.
I’ve been doing some data analysis today and I’m not convinced the World Cup affect is the reason my O1.5 and SHG filters are doing terribly this month.
Norway and Sweden have plummeted this month for me over the top 2 divisions. If I remove those leagues I would actually be in profit this month. I wonder whether it’s the end of season impact for me that I need to look at. Neither country is in the World Cup and would imagine the vast majority of players in these leagues are home grown so don’t think I can put this down to the world cup…yet at least!
I think you have found same as me, those leagues are to be avoided in October, end of season plus very cold weather (which is why they end their season this time of year!)
-
@nick-segura Gutted
-
@keith-anderson he must have heard you!
-
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Going for a SHG in the Sampdoria v Roma match. 0-1 at HT
Mourinho is one boring c**t.
-
Going for a SHG in the Sampdoria v Roma match. 0-1 at HT
-
I still think it is normal variance. I wonder how much cash that opinion will cost me
-
Thanks Keith/Ryan.
I’ve been doing some data analysis today and I’m not convinced the World Cup affect is the reason my O1.5 and SHG filters are doing terribly this month.
Norway and Sweden have plummeted this month for me over the top 2 divisions. If I remove those leagues I would actually be in profit this month. I wonder whether it’s the end of season impact for me that I need to look at. Neither country is in the World Cup and would imagine the vast majority of players in these leagues are home grown so don’t think I can put this down to the world cup…yet at least!
-
Ah hem......we've all been doing really well on the Cricket Trading thread, especially the World Cup so far
I'll get my coat.
-
I am a big one for reducing stakes if it goes against me and I think its a longer term issue as it keeps me in the game and keeps my focus - where my money is always gets my attention.
I will start to formulate something on this. I will try and gather some data as well in comparisons to other years and maybe player data as well and use the African cup of nations as a yard stick to compare how they perform before and after it and how that might affect the players.
I do feel as well even if there wasn't a WC we might still see the slower start, there's been soooo much footie in the last few years due to covid it has been brutal!
I agree as well that a lot of players who aren't going are really performing, some of them will kick on and go up a gear and stay there too.
-
@andy-donnelly said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@nick-segura Yeh I agree, this would be great to hear how the pros handle bad runs.
I'll reduce my stakes if I'm having a bad run. There are also some overlaps with my 1.5 Goals & my SHG. I will often put my 1.5 Goals on hold and concentrate on my SHG strategy - no point in losing twice on the one trade!
I try not to panic, but I'm being honest here, this world cup isn't going to help things. I'm expecting a downturn after the World Cup too. Remember how players come back jaded from AFCON
-
@ryan Using the HT LCS strat you are working on as an example, what data are you looking at, why, what are the conclusions and how will those inform the next course of actions. Also what defines downswing/variance as opposed to strategy flaw. By strategy flaw, I also mean strategies temporarily affected by new external factors, i.e international break, WC or something else. If a strategy is supposedly being affected by temporarily events, what would be your approach? Shelve the strat, paper trade it for a while, develop something new? Ta
-
@ian-wylie said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@ryan I had 24 selections over Sat and Sunday on my SHG filter and only 4 of them didn't have a SHG. However, I only managed to trade 14 of the games either because the goal came straight after half time or before it hit the odds I was waiting for so I ended up with 4 losses out of 14 giving me a small loss. If one of those 4 losses had a SHG then I would have had a small green. I might have to rethink my entry points / odds to maximise this. I usually won't enter if the next goal market is less than 1.25 and I alway wait about 10 mins in the second half before entry. Might have to look a dripping the entry in from half time.
Out of interest, the games on my list which didn't have a SHG were:
Ipswich v Lincoln City
Leuven v Genk
Sandefjord v Jerv
Slavia Prague v Mlada BoleslavLooking at the comments on here it looks like a few folk were on the Ipswich & Sandefjord games as well.
Forgot to add that 20 out of 24 trades is 83% whereas my filter is currently at 86% so a definite downturn in that small sample.
-
@ryan I had 24 selections over Sat and Sunday on my SHG filter and only 4 of them didn't have a SHG. However, I only managed to trade 14 of the games either because the goal came straight after half time or before it hit the odds I was waiting for so I ended up with 4 losses out of 14 giving me a small loss. If one of those 4 losses had a SHG then I would have had a small green. I might have to rethink my entry points / odds to maximise this. I usually won't enter if the next goal market is less than 1.25 and I alway wait about 10 mins in the second half before entry. Might have to look a dripping the entry in from half time.
Out of interest, the games on my list which didn't have a SHG were:
Ipswich v Lincoln City
Leuven v Genk
Sandefjord v Jerv
Slavia Prague v Mlada BoleslavLooking at the comments on here it looks like a few folk were on the Ipswich & Sandefjord games as well.
-
@mick-mcmahon.... Only at Hull!!
They cut them down before cut off and delayed the game for 20minutes!!
