The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Varnsdorf behind. Had to jump in and lay Prostejov here.
what league is this one Rich?
Also I noticed one of your games the away fav has gone behind in the 4pm kick off in Czec 2. Sokolov 1 0 Usti n. L.
Any thoughts on this one mate?
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Varnsdorf behind. Had to jump in and lay Prostejov here.
Ouch. Odds very low so crazy not to re-lay again at this point.
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Varnsdorf behind. Had to jump in and lay Prostejov here.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Afternoon Gents,
List for today
LTD 0-0 1-1 at HTSt Polten v Admira AUSTRIA 17:30 av 1st 2HG 58 m
Wattens v Mattersburg AUSTRIA 17:30 av 1st 2HG 60
Nykobing v Kolding DENMARK 18:00 av 1st 2HG 69Over 1.5
Wattens v Mattersburg AUSTRIA 17:30
St Polten v Admira AUSTRIA 17:30 (Ryan’s SSFHG Split.
Nykobing v Kolding DENMARK 18:00Here’s to a green day gentlemen.
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@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@simji said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
2 games on 2 different filters that im looking at for tonight. not sure if ive been able to get the original filter back.
Gdansk Vs Cracovia - 5pm
Ujpest Vs Debrecen - 6pmNo goals in first 20 minutes.
I’m not getting those games. I’ve got the Hansa Rostock, Honved and Gil Vicente games for no goals in first 20
Hi Eamonn is this a new filter your using?
From going through new ideas and filters over my time on BTC especially through a spell when a few of us traded the under 2.5 goals I would recommend paper trade your first 100 results record your potential profit and loss on a spreadsheet.
I and probably a good few of the members who have been on BTC for a while now would hold their hands up and say this is one of the most common mistake they made at the beginning and seen members make when getting to grips with creating new filters testing their ideas. Paper trading new filters I feel is very important so I just wanted to let you know so you don't make the same mistakes I and a few other traders did at the beginning.
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@simji said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
2 games on 2 different filters that im looking at for tonight. not sure if ive been able to get the original filter back.
Gdansk Vs Cracovia - 5pm
Ujpest Vs Debrecen - 6pmNo goals in first 20 minutes.
I’m not getting those games. I’ve got the Hansa Rostock, Honved and Gil Vicente games for no goals in first 20
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@richard-latimer Thanks Rich for the explanation and I hope they go onto be as successful as your down but not out selections which from your data are doping really well. The graph of your results is definitely on a consistent upward trend and you have a decent about of data on these selections as well. So a big congratulations on these.
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@dave-jones said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin-futter I just sent an email asking this but may as well ask here too. Is there a way of the stats showing what % of goals a team scores during a certain period of the match? For example I could see that Koln score 30% of their goals in the 75-90 min so there was a good chance to take either the LTD or over 0.5 goals quite late.
Any way our stats can show that?Yes - use the Goal Times table:
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@gary-brown said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
A couple of question marks over things today but regardless, it has to meet inplay conditions before I even start worrying haha!!
Hi Rich just a couple of questions I can imagine you have answered a 1000 times before based on todays selections but if you di have a moment i would really appreciate your help here.
Over The Rainbow
Is this a version of LTD/LCS in the second half based on your entry time?
I maybe a little confused between this and the fashionable late trades.Considerable better than yow
Not 100% sure how this one works at moment is is back the strong home fav from KO?Fashionably late I had pre-lockdown but it was just too strict and nothing came up so I created a new filter. The problem with the other is it focuses very specifically on a set of second half criteria rather than the entire game. I'm still keeping it and developing it as results are good.
Over the rainbow is for me to find 2nd half plays from looking at the stats for 90 minutes.
Considerably better than yow is a very basic idea I had to make use of prices already available which has started quite well. I look at number of games in which stronger team has scored versus number of times weaker team has scored. From there I'm getting a percentage. So If home team has scored in 10/10 games and away team only 5/10 I'm looking at that as 67% in the most simplistic terms.
So I then want value odds. 67x .59 for example gives me almost 40pts. 33% of the time it loses leaving me with a net 7%. With that in mind I'm thinking 1.6 minimum for something with 67% implied chance of winning.
If it was 80% I can go lower.
I know it doesn't work out exactly like this as I'll cash if a goal up and lay a goal down but it gives me something to start with. I Can always look into it a little deeper in any case and see when the away team has managed to score was it first and were they pegged back. Or when the home team conceded did they come back.
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@martin-futter
Thanks Martin. I want to try and combine pre match research and what's happening in the game after watching your videos etc. I was doing pretty well before the lockdown and its just trying to get back into it again. -
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
A couple of question marks over things today but regardless, it has to meet inplay conditions before I even start worrying haha!!
Hi Rich just a couple of questions I can imagine you have answered a 1000 times before based on todays selections but if you di have a moment i would really appreciate your help here.
Over The Rainbow
Is this a version of LTD/LCS in the second half based on your entry time?
I maybe a little confused between this and the fashionable late trades.Considerable better than yow
Not 100% sure how this one works at moment is is back the strong home fav from KO? -
Just one game for me today-
Bayern 2 vs Zwickau. Lay away side id they go 1-0 up. -
@gary-brown said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Games I am looking at today.
possible second half goals for me. They cropped up on the filters but I like these as their is a good few places separting the teams in the league tables.Poland Ekstraklasa 17:00 Piast Gliwice Gornik Z.
Germany 3. Liga 18:00 Bayern II Zwickau
Germany 3. Liga 19:30 Hallescher MannheimSo what else shall I look at:
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Who is the favourite?
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What is the favourites home or away record depending if they are playing at home or away
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What is the under dogs record (home/away?
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What are the scorelines in the last 5 matches for these teams? Hopefully a good few goals have been scored.
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Based on this what do you think will happen during the game?
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Watch game and monitor Inplay stats and what I am feeling during the game.
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When the t9me comes in the second half is everything pointing to another goal? Is the momentum still their?
What do you think guys? I am learning so i guess this is my way of asking for advice and if my plan seems ok?
Trying to limit matches so i am going for quality over quantity.
like it
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@dan-erridge said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Hi Guys
On the back of reading about all these late goals, i went away and come up with my own filter, which starts today,im looking for goals 80mins+ only, im running 2 filters, both similar,but with minor adjustments on %, will only be papertrading obviously but will put them below for intrest.so version 1 filter produced
LECH POZNAN V POGON SZCZECIN %81-90MINS 17%, HOME GOAL % 81-90 30% (SEEMS VERY GOOD TO ME) AWAY GOAL % 81-90 20% OVER H2 GOALS SCORED % 67%
ON VERSION 2 IT FOUND
PIAST GLIWICE V GORNIK Z 16%, 17%, 25%,60%
HONVED V VIDEOTON 22%, 15%, 31% (HIGH), 64%THE % ON BOTTOM 2 ARE IN SAME ORDER AS TOP ONE
wish me luck
Dan
good luck mate!
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
A couple of question marks over things today but regardless, it has to meet inplay conditions before I even start worrying haha!!
no ratings for me today, can't wait for the next ones to qualify!
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@james-everard said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Morning all, potential trades for today , paper trading again the 2.5 goal split stake as not been going so well recently.
BACK OVER 1.5 GOAL SPLIT STAKE
17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- St Polten vs Admira
17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Wattens vs Mattersburg
18.00pm Denmark Div 1- Nykobing vs Kolding
18.00pm German 3rd Div- Bayern II vs ZwickauLTD AT HT IF 0-0 OR 1-1
16.00pm Czech League 2- Varnsdorf vs Prostejov
17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- St Polten vs Admira
17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Wattens vs MattersburgLATE GOAL SPLIT STAKE STRATEGY IF DRAWING ( TRADE ON 74MINS AND 83MINS)
17.00pm Danish 1st Division- Vejle vs SkiveLCS/LTD IF 0-0 ONLY AT HT
15.55pm Hungary Bank Otp Liga- Kisvarda vs Mezokovesd-ZsoryLAY THE UNDERDOG IF THEY TAKE THE LEAD
19.30pm German 3rd Division - Hallescher vs Mannheim ( Lay Home side)
20.05pm Hungary Bank Otp Liga- Honved vs Videoton ( Lay Home side)thanks for these
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Some La Liga stats
LA LIGA
74% Over 1.5
47% Over 2.5
22% Over 3.5
52% BTTS
9% 0-0
52% Exactly 2-3 Goals
38% 0-0 HT48% Home Wins
52% Favs Won
11% Winners 3/1+
28% Draws9.46 Corners per-game
49% Over 9.5 Corners5.28 Cards per-game
47% Over 5.5 Cardsfantastic!
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interesting listening to that ‘psychoff’ and how he approaches games. Focuses mainly on in play and match reading rather than stats.
