The BTC Football Trading Thread

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer thats when they get me the other way. Always the opposite of what i want

Haha yeah.....I can see that. Expect the unexpected haha!

[Martin Walker]

@richard-latimer thats when they get me the other way. Always the opposite of what i want

[Ryan]

@radomir-greczka Make a big difference that.

[A Former User]

@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

This football with no fans is really tricky for me, it's so weird.

In Poland, Ekstraklasa will play with fans this weekend. 25% of the stadium may be full.

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I have a rule of dont trade arsenal in any way

Really? Always good to lay us if we're leading haha

[Ryan]

Some stats on later goals, I will be keeping my eye on these games after 70 mins if 0-0 / 1-0 / 0-1

I will explain the sheet a little too

Total goals 70+: Simply the amount of goals that come after 70 mins
Total goals H2: The total goals in the second half
Time + total: The % of goals that come in after 70mins in comparison to the total goals in H2.
Average goals: Average goals in the game, based around @Keith-Anderson base filter
Back odds/lay odds: The true odds based on the % as a guide to compare to BF odds.

How do I use this information then?

If a game is 0-0 / 1-0 / 0-1 @70mins. I will keep a closer eye on the game, checking for shots on target, corners, action zones in the game to see what is happening - even better if watching the game, if it looks like goals I will check the LCS (lay current score) odds and compare to the lay odds on the sheet to see if I have value on my side. I will also have a look at the back odds too of the next overs market to see if I can get value there too

Example:

0-0 @ 70 mins
Loads of action in the game
The Over 0.5 goals is 1.9 on BF
Sheet gave me 1.56
I have value
Place a back back on the over 0.5

Country League Date Home Away Total Goals 70 - 90+ Total Goals H2 Time v Total Avg Goals Back Odds Lay Odds
Poland Ekstraklasa 20/06/2020 14:00:00 Plock Arka Gdynia 26 41 63.4146341463415 3.05 1.63 2.58
Denmark 1st Division 20/06/2020 14:00:00 F. Amager Skive 22 39 56.4102564102564 3.1 1.56 2.78
Poland Division 1 20/06/2020 14:10:00 Puszcza Ol. Grudziadz 20 34 58.8235294117647 3.05 1.59 2.69
Germany Bundesliga 20/06/2020 14:30:00 RB Leipzig Dortmund 25 48 52.0833333333333 3.65 1.52 2.92
Germany Bundesliga 20/06/2020 14:30:00 Paderborn B. Monchengladbach 21 38 55.2631578947368 3.45 1.55 2.81
Austria Tipico Bundesliga 20/06/2020 16:00:00 Mattersburg St. Polten 17 31 54.8387096774194 3.3 1.55 2.81
Turkey Super Lig 20/06/2020 16:30:00 Kayserispor Genclerbirligi 16 32 50 3.1 1.50 3.00
Czech Republic 1. Liga 20/06/2020 16:30:00 Sparta Prague Liberec 18 36 50 3.15 1.50 3.00
Switzerland Challenge League 20/06/2020 17:15:00 Lausanne Ouchy Chiasso 17 30 56.6666666666667 3.1 1.57 2.75
Norway Eliteserien 20/06/2020 19:30:00 Molde Rosenborg 19 38 50 3.25 1.50 3.00
Switzerland Super League 20/06/2020 19:30:00 Sion St. Gallen 19 34 55.8823529411765 3.4 1.56 2.78

[Martin Walker]

I have a rule of dont trade arsenal in any way

[Ryan]

@john-hurst 100%!!! Arsenal are a joke at times, Brighton are shocking though.

They have a lot to fight for though, just be wary of this. Love that you have the in play stats note

[Martin]

@john-hurst good luck with it mate, I would defo want to see them looking sharp before entering they looked very poor v Man City but of course most teams would. there was some word about the plane only landing just before KO which may have contributed.

[A Former User]

Will back Arsenal today if they start brightly. They have played 3 games recently whereas brighton hasnt played since before the lockdown. Expecting Arsenal to start a lot sharper. Who knows though with Arsenal- hence the need for + inplay stats have a good one people.

[Ryan]

I am liking the look of Molde v Rosenborg for the Betgreen LTD.

Rules for this are here: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/lay-draw-kick-ryans-betgreen-strategy

[Ryan]

This football with no fans is really tricky for me, it's so weird.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@Martin-Futter

Lots of potential tomorrow:

That list will be trimmed somewhat for me, some leagues just starting and some nearly ended

[Richard Latimer]

Finally the 0-2 lays:

Ones in boxes are the ones which look the strongest.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Beware the Championship by the way, for anyone getting involved tomorrow. I swore off the 3pm Saturday Sesh a while back and it looks like that's what it is in that league.

These are the backs which I've started playing as more inplay lays following a very decent opening. Nice prices usually mean good lay prices too:

Home/Away refers to the stronger team so for away would lay home should they take the lead.

[Richard Latimer]

Beware the Championship by the way, for anyone getting involved tomorrow. I swore off the 3pm Saturday Sesh a while back and it looks like that's what it is in that league.

These are the backs which I've started playing as more inplay lays following a very decent opening. Nice prices usually mean good lay prices too:

[Richard Latimer]

@Martin-Futter

Lots of potential tomorrow:

[Richard Latimer]

@phil-cox said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Anyone. On. Farmalicao

Feels like this one petering out too. After tonight I'm going to continue tracking late goals but only that for a time.

[A Former User]

Well nice end to. The evening cheers guys see u tomorrow

[A Former User]

Never seen barca so slow and stunted