The BTC Football Trading Thread

james everard

Morning all, potential trades for today , paper trading again the 2.5 goal split stake as not been going so well recently.

BACK OVER 1.5 GOAL SPLIT STAKE
17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- St Polten vs Admira
17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Wattens vs Mattersburg
18.00pm Denmark Div 1- Nykobing vs Kolding
18.00pm German 3rd Div- Bayern II vs Zwickau

LTD AT HT IF 0-0 OR 1-1
16.00pm Czech League 2- Varnsdorf vs Prostejov
17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- St Polten vs Admira
17.30pm Austria Bundesliga- Wattens vs Mattersburg

LATE GOAL SPLIT STAKE STRATEGY IF DRAWING ( TRADE ON 74MINS AND 83MINS)
17.00pm Danish 1st Division- Vejle vs Skive

LCS/LTD IF 0-0 ONLY AT HT
15.55pm Hungary Bank Otp Liga- Kisvarda vs Mezokovesd-Zsory

LAY THE UNDERDOG IF THEY TAKE THE LEAD
19.30pm German 3rd Division - Hallescher vs Mannheim ( Lay Home side)
20.05pm Hungary Bank Otp Liga- Honved vs Videoton ( Lay Home side)

Richard Latimer

0_1591700693874_3e6f4c19-db8e-4ca3-bdd6-72015834acfd-image.png

A couple of question marks over things today but regardless, it has to meet inplay conditions before I even start worrying haha!!

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Hi Guys
On the back of reading about all these late goals, i went away and come up with my own filter, which starts today,im looking for goals 80mins+ only, im running 2 filters, both similar,but with minor adjustments on %, will only be papertrading obviously but will put them below for intrest.

so version 1 filter produced

LECH POZNAN V POGON SZCZECIN %81-90MINS 17%, HOME GOAL % 81-90 30% (SEEMS VERY GOOD TO ME) AWAY GOAL % 81-90 20% OVER H2 GOALS SCORED % 67%

ON VERSION 2 IT FOUND
PIAST GLIWICE V GORNIK Z 16%, 17%, 25%,60%
HONVED V VIDEOTON 22%, 15%, 31% (HIGH), 64%

THE % ON BOTTOM 2 ARE IN SAME ORDER AS TOP ONE

wish me luck

Dan

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@gary-brown no worries, i dont know all that much myself mate- like you i am a keen learner. Have found with late goals you should have a lowish liability so worth staking even if inplay stats aren’t amazing (if pre match research suggests a goal). Thats what i will be doing now anyway

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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@gary-brown from what i have seen from late goals lately is that they come out of nowhere. If i expect a late goal in a game now i think i will put the trade on regardless of if a game has ‘died’ been caught out by ‘reading games’ in play too many times now.

thanks for the advice John. So basically you are finding the pre game research more accurate than what is happening inplay?

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@gary-brown from what i have seen from late goals lately is that they come out of nowhere. If i expect a late goal in a game now i think i will put the trade on regardless of if a game has ‘died’ been caught out by ‘reading games’ in play too many times now.

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Games I am looking at today.
possible second half goals for me. They cropped up on the filters but I like these as their is a good few places separting the teams in the league tables.

Poland Ekstraklasa 17:00 Piast Gliwice Gornik Z.
Germany 3. Liga 18:00 Bayern II Zwickau
Germany 3. Liga 19:30 Hallescher Mannheim

So what else shall I look at:

Who is the favourite?
What is the favourites home or away record depending if they are playing at home or away
What is the under dogs record (home/away?
What are the scorelines in the last 5 matches for these teams? Hopefully a good few goals have been scored.
Based on this what do you think will happen during the game?
Watch game and monitor Inplay stats and what I am feeling during the game.
When the t9me comes in the second half is everything pointing to another goal? Is the momentum still their?

What do you think guys? I am learning so i guess this is my way of asking for advice and if my plan seems ok?

Trying to limit matches so i am going for quality over quantity.

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@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@gary-brown said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

we did abuse his system tonight.
We entered when the game wasn't a draw lol

It be interesting to see if Martin has some data abiout the game drawing compaired to the game still be alive and something to play for like it was at 2-1 with the way they were playing. I guess watching the game has helped everyone who traded this one.

yep I only won the 34% at 64 mins, did not enter at 3-3 although if it was before 84 mins I would have done at 3-3 with the profit.

data shows they are much more successful when drawing but I agree @Gary-Brown that if there is some motivation and momentum it can still be good to get in.

thanks Martin for this.

Ryan

@keith-anderson Interesting these, do you remember the old Spain train twitter account?

Akiva Anderson

Some La Liga stats

LA LIGA
74% Over 1.5
47% Over 2.5
22% Over 3.5
52% BTTS
9% 0-0
52% Exactly 2-3 Goals
38% 0-0 HT

48% Home Wins
52% Favs Won
11% Winners 3/1+
28% Draws

9.46 Corners per-game
49% Over 9.5 Corners

5.28 Cards per-game
47% Over 5.5 Cards

Ryan

Keeping my eye on these for late goals 70mins plus if 0-0 / 0-1 / 1-0

Also on the split stake from my filter

0_1591689881803_39321de7-85fa-42c9-b260-d73882f18494-image.png Austria Tipico Bundesliga 09/06/2020 17:30:00 Wattens Mattersburg 20 40 50 3.45 1.50
Denmark 1st Division 09/06/2020 18:00:00 Nykobing Kolding IF 16 29 55.1724137931034 3.4 1.55

Martin

@gary-brown said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

we did abuse his system tonight.
We entered when the game wasn't a draw lol

It be interesting to see if Martin has some data abiout the game drawing compaired to the game still be alive and something to play for like it was at 2-1 with the way they were playing. I guess watching the game has helped everyone who traded this one.

yep I only won the 34% at 64 mins, did not enter at 3-3 although if it was before 84 mins I would have done at 3-3 with the profit.

data shows they are much more successful when drawing but I agree @Gary-Brown that if there is some motivation and momentum it can still be good to get in.

Martin

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@gary-brown Thought 60mins didn't need to be a draw... Just the 74 & 84mins part???

@Martin-Futter

64 mins was a draw (2-2) so I entered then and won.

Here are the instructions from the daily email.

Back a late goal split stake when scoreline is drawing - 34% of stake at 64mins, 33% at 74mins and 33% at 84mins.

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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Right my lovely people... I'll catch you all later

night Alan. Thanks for giving me confidence to enter this one mate.

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@gary-brown Thought 60mins didn't need to be a draw... Just the 74 & 84mins part???

@Martin-Futter

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Right my lovely people... I'll catch you all later

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we did abuse his system tonight.
We entered when the game wasn't a draw lol

It be interesting to see if Martin has some data abiout the game drawing compaired to the game still be alive and something to play for like it was at 2-1 with the way they were playing. I guess watching the game has helped everyone who traded this one.

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@james-woodroffe Yes mate Martin does 33% on 60mins, 33% on 74mins (if level) & 33% on 84mins if level

James Woodroffe

Another one for Martins late goal filter. Wasn’t in that time tho.

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Will it go 3-3 before 74mins lol