The BTC Football Trading Thread

? Offline

Ararat Yerevan 0-1 up but whole match is unmanaged... Do we stay out?

Richard Latimer

@dean-adams said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

goal fest in Czech Republic!! Phones going nuts!!

Yeah 2 games off the list already

? Offline

goal fest in Czech Republic!! Phones going nuts!!

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Backed Sakhnin

Scratch that. Doesn't start for ages.

Richard Latimer

Backed Sakhnin

Richard Latimer

@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Betfair throwing a spanner into the works there. Fingers crossed it's back up later.

Oh, it's back

And it’s down.

And it's back haha?!

James Woodroffe

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Betfair throwing a spanner into the works there. Fingers crossed it's back up later.

Oh, it's back

And it’s down.

James Woodroffe

Afternoon Gents,
Here we go for Thursday.

FHG split
Viborg v Rosklide Denmark 1 17:00

LTD or back next over on minute indicated if 0-0 1-1

Chrudim v Jihlava 60 Czech 2 16:00
Kralove v Zikov 59 Czech 2 16:00
Lisen v Brno 55 Czech 2 17:00
Viborg v Rosklide 65 Denmark 1 17:00
Zapresic v Gorcia 61 Croatia 1 17:55

** Liefering v FAC 57 Austria 2 19:25
** This game also qualifies for Martins split stake late goal.

Will also be keeping an eye out on any potential lays from @Richard-Latimer.

Here’s to a green Thursday

Richard Latimer

@simji said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

The filters have thrown these up for tonight. Won't be able to watch them as at work but will be recording them into the spreadsheet

Of 36 results so far 21 have become winners.

Question. Is there a way of finding what starting price these past games has had and also the last price matched before a goals goes in?

Doubtful but you can look at everage first goal times and ave first H2 goal times as I do.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Betfair throwing a spanner into the works there. Fingers crossed it's back up later.

Oh, it's back

Simji

0_1591883445144_Screenshot_20200611-144844~2.jpg

The filters have thrown these up for tonight. Won't be able to watch them as at work but will be recording them into the spreadsheet

Of 36 results so far 21 have become winners.

Question. Is there a way of finding what starting price these past games has had and also the last price matched before a goals goes in?

Richard Latimer

Betfair throwing a spanner into the works there. Fingers crossed it's back up later.

Richard Latimer

0_1591878744246_23dc5d7e-1c2c-45f3-b6b4-0fb47e40df2a-image.png

? Offline

@richard-latimer out of interest what size of bank you trading with, I'd have imagined with compounding and the amount of time you been trading you would be at a decent level?

Richard Latimer

@dean-adams said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer
Do you rule out those leagues for your LTD filters aswell?

On Account of Poor Liquidity or league being too lower level/bottom feeding/suspicious looking (often both) Unsure of:

Bosnia
Bulgaria Vtora Liga
Croatia 2
El Salvador
England National Leage North and South
Estonia
Finland Kakkonen
Germany Regionalliga
Guatemala
Honduras
Hungary Merkantil Bank Liga
Italy Serie C
Jamaica
Malta
Morocco
Norway Division 2
Panama
Poland 2
Russia PL Down But Not Out
Serbia Early Doors Fashionably Late
Slovenia Down But Not Out
Spain Segunda B
Sweden Division 1 - Norra or Sodra
Venezuela F*****g orrible league!!!!

All UK leagues except in the following circumstances
N.I. Games all fine
For Down But Not Out - Games either side of the 3 o'clock melee or midweek melee are ok
All Scottish Prem/Championship games are ok
For Fashionably Late all Scottish Prem/Champ games are ok

Currrently the way I look at it. Things are a little fluid. For example, I've done ok in Poland 2 using my new filter 'Over The Rainbow' recently.

Can't ever imagine getting involved in the 3 o'clock scrum again though.

Richard Latimer

@liam-willis said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@liam-willis added it to our strategies page https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/laying-dog-richards-elo-ratings-lays

@Martin-Futter

All I would say is I have specifically ruled out the following as it just drags the overall numbers down:

On Account of Poor Liquidity or league being too lower level/bottom feeding/suspicious looking (often both) Unsure of:

Bosnia
Bulgaria Vtora Liga
Croatia 2
El Salvador
England National Leage North and South
Estonia
Finland Kakkonen
Germany Regionalliga
Guatemala
Honduras
Hungary Merkantil Bank Liga
Italy Serie C
Jamaica
Malta
Morocco
Norway Division 2
Panama
Poland 2
Russia PL
Slovenia
Spain Segunda B
Sweden Division 1 - Norra or Sodra
Venezuela F*****g orrible league!!!!

All UK leagues except in the following circumstances
N.I. Games all fine
Games either side of the 3 o'clock melee or midweek melee are ok
All Scottish Prem/Championship games are ok

am i right in saying that to follow the maria strategy you will need a minimum £500 bank as 0.4% of bank below this is under the £2 betfair staking limit

God no!!!!

I am almost constantly under the betfair minimum

? Offline

@richard-latimer
Do you rule out those leagues for your LTD filters aswell?

? Offline

@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

(Testing) Early SHG 70% selections

I have the total foals 70mins plus the total goals in the H2 - then work out the % of the goals in the timeframe 70-90 in comparison to H2 and any over 50% go orange and I'll look at backing the next Overs market.

The back odds are what I do with the true odds of a goal in that time period the % / 100 + 1. When it got to 70mins it was always higher here on the next over market (that needed one goal to win)

Country League Date Home Away Total Goals 70 - 90+ Total Goals H2 Time v Total Avg Goals Back Odds Lay Odds
Austria 2. Liga 07/06/2020 09:30:00 A. Klagenfurt Kapfenberg 25 42 59.5238095238095 3.61 1.60 2.66
Estonia Meistriliiga 07/06/2020 17:00:00 Tammeka Paide 30 59 50.8474576271186 4.15 1.51 2.96
Germany Bundesliga 07/06/2020 12:30:00 SV Werder Bremen Wolfsburg 21 42 50 3.15 1.50 3.00
Faroe Islands Premier League 07/06/2020 15:00:00 Streymur Skala Itrottarfelag 5 9 55.5555555555556 5 1.56 2.78
Faroe Islands Premier League 07/06/2020 15:00:00 IF Fuglafjordur AB Argir 6 7 85.7142857142857 3.4 1.86 2.16
Denmark Superliga 07/06/2020 16:00:00 Sonderjyske Silkeborg 18 31 58.0645161290323 3.05 1.58 2.72
Austria Tipico Bundesliga 07/06/2020 16:00:00 AC Wolfsberger LASK Linz 24 41 58.5365853658537 3.3 1.59 2.69
Austria Tipico Bundesliga 07/06/2020 16:00:00 Hartberg Salzburg 24 45 53.3333333333333 3.6 1.53 2.88

Hey @Ryan-Carruthers ,

What is the excel formula behind the Lay Odds column?
For Back I used % / 100 + 1 as you mentioned it in your post, but I don't know how to calculate the lay.

And regarding the strategy, you enter a trade only if the Betfair's 70mins back odds are greater than the ones that you calculate (the ones from the Back Odds column)?

liam willis

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@liam-willis added it to our strategies page https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/laying-dog-richards-elo-ratings-lays

@Martin-Futter

All I would say is I have specifically ruled out the following as it just drags the overall numbers down:

On Account of Poor Liquidity or league being too lower level/bottom feeding/suspicious looking (often both) Unsure of:

Bosnia
Bulgaria Vtora Liga
Croatia 2
El Salvador
England National Leage North and South
Estonia
Finland Kakkonen
Germany Regionalliga
Guatemala
Honduras
Hungary Merkantil Bank Liga
Italy Serie C
Jamaica
Malta
Morocco
Norway Division 2
Panama
Poland 2
Russia PL
Slovenia
Spain Segunda B
Sweden Division 1 - Norra or Sodra
Venezuela F*****g orrible league!!!!

All UK leagues except in the following circumstances
N.I. Games all fine
Games either side of the 3 o'clock melee or midweek melee are ok
All Scottish Prem/Championship games are ok

am i right in saying that to follow the maria strategy you will need a minimum £500 bank as 0.4% of bank below this is under the £2 betfair staking limit

Richard Latimer

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@liam-willis added it to our strategies page https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies/laying-dog-richards-elo-ratings-lays

@Martin-Futter

All I would say is I have specifically ruled out the following as it just drags the overall numbers down:

On Account of Poor Liquidity or league being too lower level/bottom feeding/suspicious looking (often both) Unsure of:

Bosnia
Bulgaria Vtora Liga
Croatia 2
El Salvador
England National Leage North and South
Estonia
Finland Kakkonen
Germany Regionalliga
Guatemala
Honduras
Hungary Merkantil Bank Liga
Italy Serie C
Jamaica
Malta
Morocco
Norway Division 2
Panama
Poland 2
Russia PL
Slovenia
Spain Segunda B
Sweden Division 1 - Norra or Sodra
Venezuela F*****g orrible league!!!!

All UK leagues except in the following circumstances
N.I. Games all fine
Games either side of the 3 o'clock melee or midweek melee are ok
All Scottish Prem/Championship games are ok