The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@ Linz
Will be looking for LCS if score stays 0-1 and Lay odds get to around 4.0
Will now be looking to LTD
If I was doing a 4 goal dutch I would have Dutched Layed 0-1 & 1-1 @ HT... Let's see how that would have gone
@Ryan-Carruthers Above was in line with our Private Coaching chat... Yes?
Or would you have read my Dutch Lay scores differently?Scored/Conceded below set for Current Season & Last 20 games
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@james-woodroffe i have been doing lay the first team that score, but have found if you back the big favourite they normally score first so could gain a big ticks before laying them back off
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@James-Woodroffe i have traded NRL in the past never AFL how do you get on with it?
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Will be entering the post 60 split stake if score remains the same. AFL back today on BT so I’m a little excited will post trades later this afternoon.
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@alan-steward Its in play now mate. Must have been one of those dodgy betfair suspensions at the start of the game?
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@alan-steward nevermind! plenty more opportunities in these coming days
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward ahhh damn! nevermind mate
I set up my first "Dutch" in Fairbot and then opened Betfair... Cashed out before kick-off £0.62p red lol
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@alan-steward ahhh damn! nevermind mate
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward I just remove my liability on the second lay I don't fully green
Sorry... Re my example, when/If the Fav scores to go 1-2 remove red?
Not on second score (0-2)
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Martin/Adam, I’m having an issue with the forum updating on my iphone- safari. When i load this page it shows posts from 14 hours ago+ and i have to scroll to the top every time. Might be an easy fix for me or for you. Any ideas?
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@john-hurst Hi mate if that's Klagenfurt I don't think it's going in-play... Was looking for a 4 goal dutch there
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Klag game this morning on late goals and potential comeback lay if they go 1 down. Nice to have such an early game on
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@martin-futter So we Lay the Dog at say 0-1 & again at 0-2 Fav scores (1-2)... Would/Do you "Green Up" & Lay 1-2 or just Lay 1-2 again (maybe leaving £0 on the Dog). Sorry don't trade match odds more but would like to get into it... Or is this something best measured over time and evaluate from there?
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@claudiu-ion said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Let's see if I got it right...
- I should enter the trade if the underdog goes 1 goal up for 0.5 pts; if the favourite scores green up.
- If the underdogs scores again (0 - 2) go for another 0.5 pts. If the favourite scores (1 - 2) green up
If the favourite doesn't score you let the bet until the end, I suppose. You lose 1 pt.
How do you select the games?
From the picture above:- ELO Diff is the difference between Home Elo and Away Elo? How much should it be to pick the game? Over 120?
- Comeback Rating how higher should it be?
Thank you in advance!
You lay to stake so let's say you use £10 lay stakes you would lay £10 at 1.01-3.5 so say the team is 3.5 at 1-0 up you lay £25 liability.
If they go 2-0 up at home we lay again but this is up to you really how much risk you want to take. The reason to top up is the odds will be odds on at this point probably around 1.5 so you are not risking much to win the same amount at before. A £10 lay in this case is £5 liability.
As we saw on Sunday at that point a quick goal will leave you in profit at 2-1 down. You can them remove your liability on the second lay and wait for an equaliser.
A loser would be 2.5pts in the example above at 1-2 FT and 3pts at 0-2 FT.
Selection:
Strong team at home must have 100+ ELO rating and comeback rating of 63+
Strong team away must have 100+ ELO and comeback rating of 70+ -
@Martin-Futter is there a guide on the ratings thing elo ect i cant get my head around it all
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@claudiu-ion Sorry mate looks like we asked a similar question at the same time
No problem Alan. I just want to understand how to use this strategy.
From the daily email that I just saw it:
Strong team come back system (The stronger rated team is highlighted below, we lay the opposition.) - Lay the underdog if they take the lead and trade below 11.0. We lay 1% of bank at 1.01-3.5 odds, 0.6% of bank at 3.6-7.4 odds and 0.4% at 7.4-11.0 odds. Green up if the stronger team gets level or wait until they take the lead. If drawing at 70 mins take the profit regardless. I let them run if no goal.I think this clarifies how to use it, but I want to be able to pick the games myself.
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@claudiu-ion Sorry mate looks like we asked a similar question at the same time
