The BTC Football Trading Thread

James Woodroffe

Is the Liefering match out now @Martin-Futter? I just missed my entry but at 2-0 my filter says another. Any thoughts?

James Woodroffe

@gary-brown I like Ben from STL but I’ve found it’s a bit like “Sports Trading For Dummies” no disrespect intended towards the bloke but I get so much more from BTC. I trade tennis as well and work on tennis and a lot of what he says I find a little eye rolling. Maybe it’s just me I dunno.

Eamonn Hogan

Betfair down again>?

Richard Latimer

@gary-brown said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Safe to say the lay from the start is still going well:

I think the only thing that gives me cause for concern is we did a similar thing ages ago with Liam Couper. People were laying silly money on odds of 18.0 and stuff. It was 98% and only losers were smaller odds.

Then it went south and people started complaining. A few inevitable big priced losers happened and every one lost interest.

Ben M from Sporting Life has a strategy basically same as this one Rich called relay strategy on his ultimate football trading course.

Obviously the way he selects his games is not as good as yours. I do like the ELO ratings and the come back rating info that you use to select games for this strategy.

Personally not used it myself but please keep tracking your results for this as its a very simple system to use if in the long term its profitable and a great selling point for BTC guys as your selections I guess can only be made from the ELO software which you find here.

I will follow this with interest. What do you call this strategy Rich? Is it on your spreadsheet link yet your results ?

The only thing on my spreadsheet is for when dog goes a goal up.

Richard Latimer

@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer so mate am I correct in saying you only lay when the dog goes up but Martin is working on a KO strategy?

Exactly. testing to see if it works alongside I guess.

? Offline

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Safe to say the lay from the start is still going well:

I think the only thing that gives me cause for concern is we did a similar thing ages ago with Liam Couper. People were laying silly money on odds of 18.0 and stuff. It was 98% and only losers were smaller odds.

Then it went south and people started complaining. A few inevitable big priced losers happened and every one lost interest.

Ben M from Sporting Life has a strategy basically same as this one Rich called relay strategy on his ultimate football trading course.

Obviously the way he selects his games is not as good as yours. I do like the ELO ratings and the come back rating info that you use to select games for this strategy.

Personally not used it myself but please keep tracking your results for this as its a very simple system to use if in the long term its profitable and a great selling point for BTC guys as your selections I guess can only be made from the ELO software which you find here.

I will follow this with interest. What do you call this strategy Rich? Is it on your spreadsheet link yet your results ?

James Woodroffe

@richard-latimer so mate am I correct in saying you only lay when the dog goes up but Martin is working on a KO strategy?

Martin

Haha I need to stop posting those testing results it’s confusing everyone.

Richard Latimer

@james-everard said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer How does this system work ?is it laying at kickoff before the underdog takes the lead won't the odds be a lot higher then? . Or am I completely getting the system wrong wouldn't be the first time lol

That's what @Martin-Futter is testing. I'm still only laying if the right inplay opportunity presents itself at the moment.

james everard

@richard-latimer How does this system work ?is it laying at kickoff before the underdog takes the lead won't the odds be a lot higher then? . Or am I completely getting the system wrong wouldn't be the first time lol

Richard Latimer

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Safe to say the lay from the start is still going well:

I think the only thing that gives me cause for concern is we did a similar thing ages ago with Liam Couper. People were laying silly money on odds of 18.0 and stuff. It was 98% and only losers were smaller odds.

Then it went south and people started complaining. A few inevitable big priced losers happened and every one lost interest.

Richard Latimer

@ben-watts said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@sam-maccuaig I'm tracking them, not had a loser yet but I don't advise it until I have tested a long time, will update my sheet tonight

been actively following this since reading the weekends results. Been quality so far! I've been wondering what you guys think is the exit point if things go south? I nearly got out in the Viborg game when they went 2-0 down ( I layed the dog at 0-0, and doubled down twice) , but left it just to see...... The cash out value wasn't even too bad even after the 2nd goal wwent in... roughly 45% of the total liability (after laying twice previously)....

@richard-latimer

I only lay after a goal and never ever trade out when all I need is one goal. If it's 0-2 I'll let it run. Usually a goal will pull a bit back but every now and then you lose both stakes.

Richard Latimer

@gary-brown said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

he later the goal bac

thanks Rich for the explanation.
I wasn't 100% sure but I did relay at 0-2 and instead of trading out when the game went 1-2 for a small loss I just let the trade continue as the pre match research and the goal markets on betfair were expecting goals from the home favourite.

So I ended up winning this trade as home side went on to win but its something I think in future will need to key an eye on this ion the future with regards relays.

Yeah, glad it worked but many teams don't manage to get that 2nd or lose a 3rd. One thing I will say that I've noticed is a goal back fh seems to end better in the long run than a goal back early H2.

? Offline

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@sam-maccuaig I'm tracking them, not had a loser yet but I don't advise it until I have tested a long time, will update my sheet tonight

been actively following this since reading the weekends results. Been quality so far! I've been wondering what you guys think is the exit point if things go south? I nearly got out in the Viborg game when they went 2-0 down ( I layed the dog at 0-0, and doubled down twice) , but left it just to see...... The cash out value wasn't even too bad even after the 2nd goal wwent in... roughly 45% of the total liability (after laying twice previously)....

@richard-latimer

Martin

Safe to say the lay from the start is still going well:
0_1591901016165_Screenshot 2020-06-11 19.41.44.png

? Offline

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

he later the goal bac

thanks Rich for the explanation.
I wasn't 100% sure but I did relay at 0-2 and instead of trading out when the game went 1-2 for a small loss I just let the trade continue as the pre match research and the goal markets on betfair were expecting goals from the home favourite.

So I ended up winning this trade as home side went on to win but its something I think in future will need to key an eye on this ion the future with regards relays.

Richard Latimer

@Gary-Brown in answer to your question earlier, my re-lay stake depends on the odds. If it was originally over 3.5 but then re-lay odds only evens or less I'll increase in accordance with my original staking plan. So using Maria staking would be .6pts for first lay and 1pt for re-lay.

As much as 1 goal back usually gets you some green there is no way to guarantee this. The later the goal back the more red your screen. Sometimes it will be equal to if you had just red out after the first goal. Sometimes it will be worse. Many times break even.

There's really no way of knowing.

I use the re-lay predominantly as a potential means of escape which most of the time works and occasionally backfires.

James Woodroffe

@richard-latimer cheers Rich.

James Woodroffe

@james-everard you and me both mate. Trading from home is so much better than living out of a suitcase hanging out in airports and hotels. I can’t believe I’m saying this cause I love my job but the longer I’m home with my family the less I miss the constant travel.

Richard Latimer

@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@martin-futter I actually miss read Rich’s lay today and stupidly thought it was all away teams. I didn’t trade the match from Rich’s strategy but did on Ryan’s split stake. Just have to remember that some lays are the home team and double check. Was a bit confused then double checked and the penny dropped.

When I post, home lays are in pink. Away lays in green.