The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@richard-latimer im not sure whether to or not to cuz the home side have been the better and galatasarys goalkeeper went off with what looked like a broken leg so it might of shaken them a bit?
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Rizespor have taken the lead against Galatasaray. Good odds to lay.
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@darri Okay
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Laid Brøndby 3.05
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@john-hurst there is no SECRET, im no psycoff i still use historic stats. I think your trying to be clever here but i think most people understand what im trying to say. Its not just pre match stats you factor into a good trade. and its not just me saying that which your trying to imply, go have a look at the btc trading videos or youtube videos its all about the extra edges than just stats.
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@darri 100% get that you’re just trying to help, that’s what makes this place amazing! And who doesn’t like the idea of less time in front of a screen. I come from a
Commodities background so I’m a bit biased, but I’m very used to seeing people just use just stats (technical analysis) to predict market moves and trade against. In the prop softs trade its completely normal to build a position based just off tech and the Greeks, and trade from that. I’m v v new to Betfair trading so don’t claim to know what I’m talking about at all, but if there is value over time then that’s all I’m interested in at this point. I’ll be following your thread closely though, so appreciate you sharing an alternative perspective -
@darri whats your secret? if youre not big on the stats approach is it just game reading? What is your 'alternate solution' as you put it
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@sam-maccuaig said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@darri have you taken a look at Richards spreadsheet? He’s quite good at recording performance
I have mate, im not having a go only expressing an alternative to improving it, every strategy has its merits. But if you have the info btc videos provide or other people post blogs that could help them improve its unfair not to voice. Its coming from pros who do this for a living. I dont do trading just for a laugh iv done the hard grafting, and its only fair i try help others do the same. I get its human nature to jump on board after seeing a loads of wins but i could predict city would win every game and id be seen to be winning alot but would i be as profitable. Its the profits made that matters. Its why i love this community, im only offering an alternative opinion.
And I appreciate all this. Honestly though, the way I've explained above is probably the best way I ever could.
It's not perfect, it never will be and some could make more out of my stats than me. I honestly don't think I could though.
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@sam-maccuaig said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@darri have you taken a look at Richards spreadsheet? He’s quite good at recording performance
I have mate, im not having a go only expressing an alternative to improving it, every strategy has its merits. But if you have the info btc videos provide or other people post blogs that could help them improve its unfair not to voice. Its coming from pros who do this for a living. I dont do trading just for a laugh iv done the hard grafting, and its only fair i try help others do the same. I get its human nature to jump on board after seeing a loads of wins but i could predict city would win every game and id be seen to be winning alot but would i be as profitable. Its the profits made that matters. Its why i love this community, im only offering an alternative opinion.
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
guys i understand whats going on that a lot of these types of trades are based off a system. But there is more to trading than just going off historic stats alone. Martin, me and others post all the time about pre match research and how it helps narrow down selections. Everyone has access to these stats, yes build a strategy around them but its not just historic stats that guage whether a trade is value or not. You got to take the pre match stats and link it to what is happening in the game. When the fav goes behind is the fav actually on top? does the price actually represent value. Dont just lump on in hope. Each match is different. You got to enter a trade when both pre match and inplays stats/price compliment each other. See so many people getting involved in massive amounts of games for no reward and all the info they need to turn profitable is already out there. Im not saying im the answer and my way is the only way but i cant see how over a weekend being involved in +20 matches for no reward and spending hours at the screen is helping anyone progress. Im trying to demystify that notion on my thread for anyone who agrees. I know i may be a minority or come across as nagging but i have proof it works. These high win rates for little profits and for big losses are crippling everyones growth. Like martin says value is the only thing that matters!
Of course all this is important but you also have to realise you won't win every day don't you. I'm not sure about anybody else but I am in no way concerned that what I have lost today can't be made up and quickly.
Shots galore in Liberec. Energetik hit the bar as stated by someone else.
do you do any pre match research, check inplay stats or correlate if price is value? You went on a crazy run agreed, but was the reward as much as it could have been, a few losses at these prices and your needing 4-6 good ones just to get back even. Im all for small consistent gains and over time compound them, but i would ask people is spending hours at the screen for no reward actually what your wanting? These endless lists of games seem hugely time consuming for just breaking even. Look around at the pro traders on here, martin, ryan, keith, frode, charles, me they pick high quality games/trades and only enter for good prices not stacks of games hoping they will help. LESS IS ALWAYS MORE.
Its always easy for people to see someone winning loads of trades but its their actual profit gains thats important
i already told myself yesterday I should definitely have stopped earlier. Today I don't think I have traded poorly. And more importantly, I won't let a few negative results take me off course as has happened in the past. My backs have been excellent, I've got 360+ results on the inplay lays to know I get purple patches and ones where it goes up and down for a bit.
The difference with me and hear me out, I honestly don't think I could do the pre-match research the way you do. Fair enough but I'm all about the stats. It's just the way my mind works. I love stats, I analyse them to death and tweak depending on those.
I'm not an expert on football and my mind would have me trying to justify or not what the team news told me. I variable stake and won't go above certain odds. One higher odds loss is not the end of the world because of this.
Stats never tell the whole story but they can tell a damn good one!!
And with that CSKA Sofia are behind so its time to lay Plovdiv.
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after the early goal in madrid game greened up with 10% of my stake. 4/4 today
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@martin-futter Best game Schalke have played since the restart with basically a B-team. Football is funny!
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@darri have you taken a look at Richards spreadsheet? He’s quite good at recording performance
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I see that Lech have found a way to beat Korona... I am sure the home team are glad they are spelled with a "K".
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@frode-lia said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Backing over 1.5 @ 1.6 in S04 v Neverkusen. Bayer is pressing on, but S04 can easy get a goal on a counter here.
nice one!
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
guys i understand whats going on that a lot of these types of trades are based off a system. But there is more to trading than just going off historic stats alone. Martin, me and others post all the time about pre match research and how it helps narrow down selections. Everyone has access to these stats, yes build a strategy around them but its not just historic stats that guage whether a trade is value or not. You got to take the pre match stats and link it to what is happening in the game. When the fav goes behind is the fav actually on top? does the price actually represent value. Dont just lump on in hope. Each match is different. You got to enter a trade when both pre match and inplays stats/price compliment each other. See so many people getting involved in massive amounts of games for no reward and all the info they need to turn profitable is already out there. Im not saying im the answer and my way is the only way but i cant see how over a weekend being involved in +20 matches for no reward and spending hours at the screen is helping anyone progress. Im trying to demystify that notion on my thread for anyone who agrees. I know i may be a minority or come across as nagging but i have proof it works. These high win rates for little profits and for big losses are crippling everyones growth. Like martin says value is the only thing that matters!
Of course all this is important but you also have to realise you won't win every day don't you. I'm not sure about anybody else but I am in no way concerned that what I have lost today can't be made up and quickly.
Shots galore in Liberec. Energetik hit the bar as stated by someone else.
do you do any pre match research, check inplay stats or correlate if price is value? You went on a crazy run agreed, but was the reward as much as it could have been, a few losses at these prices and your needing 4-6 good ones just to get back even. Im all for small consistent gains and over time compound them, but i would ask people is spending hours at the screen for no reward actually what your wanting? These endless lists of games seem hugely time consuming for just breaking even. Look around at the pro traders on here, martin, ryan, keith, frode, charles, me they pick high quality games/trades and only enter for good prices not stacks of games hoping they will help. LESS IS ALWAYS MORE.
Its always easy for people to see someone winning loads of trades but its their actual profit gains thats important
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0-1 Cracovia
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
guys i understand whats going on that a lot of these types of trades are based off a system. But there is more to trading than just going off historic stats alone. Martin, me and others post all the time about pre match research and how it helps narrow down selections. Everyone has access to these stats, yes build a strategy around them but its not just historic stats that guage whether a trade is value or not. You got to take the pre match stats and link it to what is happening in the game. When the fav goes behind is the fav actually on top? does the price actually represent value. Dont just lump on in hope. Each match is different. You got to enter a trade when both pre match and inplays stats/price compliment each other. See so many people getting involved in massive amounts of games for no reward and all the info they need to turn profitable is already out there. Im not saying im the answer and my way is the only way but i cant see how over a weekend being involved in +20 matches for no reward and spending hours at the screen is helping anyone progress. Im trying to demystify that notion on my thread for anyone who agrees. I know i may be a minority or come across as nagging but i have proof it works. These high win rates for little profits and for big losses are crippling everyones growth. Like martin says value is the only thing that matters!
Of course all this is important but you also have to realise you won't win every day don't you. I'm not sure about anybody else but I am in no way concerned that what I have lost today can't be made up and quickly.
Shots galore in Liberec. Energetik hit the bar as stated by someone else.
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Backing over 1.5 @ 1.6 in S04 v Neverkusen. Bayer is pressing on, but S04 can easy get a goal on a counter here.
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Literally just about to get on Bnei Lod having left it because of liquidity. 2.8. Missed it. 1-0. Great for continued data.
