The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@james-woodroffe whats the thought process for the FHG demark? Looks like 40% of historical H2H have ended first half 0-0. Home stats are much better (10%), is this what you're basing it on? Not picking holes looking to learn!
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These are continuing to do really well. Far better than I could have anticipated. It's a simple idea. One scores at least 1 goal most of the time and one doesn't. The difference between the numbers of each team scoring wise is turned into a percentage. A percentage that I then turn into min odds.
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Watchlist for today as I mentioned in my earlier posts these trades will not necessarily be entered.
FHG SPLIT on 19,29,34 and 39 minutes
18:00 Denmark Super League
Silkeborg v OdenseLTD - LCS or Back next over if 0-0 or 1-1 on minimum entry time.
16:00 Czech 2 League.
Vysehrad v Hradeck Kralove minimum entry time 61 minsSplit Stake (Ryan’s SS)
21:00 Spain Laliga
Real Betis vs Granada *
In the event this match doesn’t qualify for SS but is 1-1 at HT I’ll look at a LTD- LCS or back next over on 69 mins depending on how the half has unfolded till that time.
Here’s to a green start to the week.
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Martin has already posted these but there's one more game in czech 2 if liquidit ok.
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@matthew-biggins I came to a similar conclusion yesterday also, there’s too much going on at the weekends to keep track I also need to reduce the amount of games I’m trading. I also find weekdays easier
First step for me will be to decide when I can trade and stick to it, if there are no games available to trade then fair enough.
Secondly I stopped trading on Saturday when I made a profit level I was more than happy with. Yesterday I should of stopped but didn’t as it was a strange day of weird results.
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@james-woodroffe this is great to hear mate! Think consistency, if someone averages 1 point or 1% growth each day including winning and losing days within that period that 30% each month. Thats scary when you see what size of bank you have after a year. Just for anyone that read my posts yesterday, iv had a few messages about it and thank you for messages means a lot. If you want a proper answer as to what i was meaning in a bit more depth iv posted over on my full time thread, link in description. Yet again this forum is a shining light on actually trading and helping instead of these guys selling strategies and courses. And as much as id like to claim i learned all this myself, @Ryan-Carruthers and @Martin-Futter made me focus on these aspects more than i did before i joined. Sometimes you just need a nudge from guys who have been there done it to not change you but guide you to better principles.
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Another point to add to what has been said; I'm no expert or even proficient in trading yet, but have started to become consistently profitable (three months- it's a start).
However, I know something about statistics.
a) To test a strategy, you need more than 100 results. Really, you need about a year's worth at least.
b) Within any strategy, any collection of data, there will be anomalies. These can be "good" runs in an otherwise unprofitable strategy and "bad" runs in an otherwise profitable strategy.
c) If you have back-tested your strategy over a number of years and it is profitable, chances are it will be profitable in the future.
d) BUT- the strategy is based on raw probability. Certain aleatory events increase or decrease the likelihood of, say, a goal being scored. This is what Darri and others mean when they refer to inplay stats or pre-match info. Put simply, if, as Finn pointed out earlier, Brondby have sold their best attacking players in January, and there has only been one shot on target, then, even if your strategy suggests a greater than 80& probability of a SHG, these aleatory events reduce that probability.
In other words, by being shrewd, you can hedge the probability in your favour.
e) Darri alluded to this yesterday. A strategy can be profitable at certain lay/back prices but unprofitable at others.
I have a SHG strategy based on LCS. If I lay at 5 or under, it would have brought me 89pts profit since November last year. If I laid at 6 or over, that drops considerably.
You have to experiment/test with pricing. -
@ryan-carruthers that less is definitely more, that matches that come up on your filters don’t necessarily make good trades. However the main thing I got from it was this and yesterday was a classic example. I was up just under 2 points off the back of my first two trades of the day being FHG split winners. I should have called it quits on the day then I think. I could have looked back at the end of the day and seen what could have - would have happened with my other trades but I’d still be regardless of what happened 2 points up.
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@james-woodroffe What was the biggest takeaway you took from it all matey?
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Interesting to get some input from @Darri and @Frode-Lia yesterday and this morning and gave me some good food for thought on my morning walk.
I’ll be taking a leaf out and restricting my trades as well as stepping up in regards to what justifies me to get involved. Something that @Ryan-Carruthers and @Martin-Futter and so many others who are successful at trading almost use as a mantra.
So going forward my LTD or Back next over entry time will be my minimum entry time and not the time I will enter the trade regardless IF I haven’t seen enough in that time frame to justify entering, and if that’s the case I’ll reassess the entry point for 10 mins later. Ie 64 mins entry becomes 74. If I miss the goal so be it. The same principle will be applied to my FHG splits. If on 19 minutes nothing says enter I’ll wait and reassess on 29. If the whole half is played out looking like a dud I won’t enter and again if a goal comes from out of nowhere then so be it. I hope this makes sense and I hope I’m on the right track as I continue to look to improve on the journey. -
I like this! @matthew-biggins
One of the things I always get asked is can you do live trading videos of the Saturday 3pm kick offs, I very rarely trade these games!
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@alan-steward
Exciting stuff.When you are successful, you can get on with that remake/sequel.
I've got loads of ideas about how to make the original better
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@stuart-capstick Lol... Just seems apt that as of July I will be raising my bank and stakes to new levels... The next but one phase to trading full time
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@matthew-biggins If a trading system allows you to trade more profit by trading weekdays only doesn't mean it's counter productive... Forget about stake size and if anything reduce them to an absolute minimum and treat monetary value as in points (if 3% stake is your normal stake than this becomes 1pt).
As you continue to accelerate your experience with more green than red then yes maybe increase your stake size... But in my mind I think it's best to learn how to trade in profit first rather than how big your stakes are.
Put it this way... if your trading stake was £2 and you continually made £2 profit every day how much more comfortable would you be raising your stakes to say £20, £50, £100 or even £500?
Okay so yes you, would do it in stages but as they say... The best way to eat an elephant is in bite size chunks!
Therefore one small step at a time.
And as my old accountant says;
"It'a not about the profit that is made... But the profit that is kept -
@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Independence Day
Are you filming a sequel, Alan? Are the aliens coming back?
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@matthew-biggins said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Although it may seem counter-productive, I've found it far easier to trade on weekdays rather than the weekends. The fact there is less games means its easier to focus in on the quality rather than the quantity and I find thats when I've got the best chance of being green for the day.
With all the football coming back slowly but surely, the weekends can seem a bit overwhelming unless you severely restrict yourself to either a single strategy or a particular league etc. Another point with weekends that's already been touched on is the temptation to jump back in when you're already in good profit. With a healthy selection of games between around 11am (sometimes earlier) and 8/9pm, discipline is so important.
Totally agree with this. Especially if you're not a pro or anything like that, FOMO is a thing to be aware of and it can difficult to know when to enter a match and when to stay well clear. The less crammed programme on weekdays removes some of that by default.
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Although it may seem counter-productive, I've found it far easier to trade on weekdays rather than the weekends. The fact there is less games means its easier to focus in on the quality rather than the quantity and I find thats when I've got the best chance of being green for the day.
With all the football coming back slowly but surely, the weekends can seem a bit overwhelming unless you severely restrict yourself to either a single strategy or a particular league etc. Another point with weekends that's already been touched on is the temptation to jump back in when you're already in good profit. With a healthy selection of games between around 11am (sometimes earlier) and 8/9pm, discipline is so important.
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@frode-lia Spot on mate... After reading some posts from yesterday was going to suggest something very similar... i.e. 3% green then paper trade only if you need to, but would rather suggest new starters backed away from the screen take some time out and catch up with the rest of the days games they would have traded (before 3% green) the following day
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@martin-futter It sure was
OTBC... Seriously though they'll be back
