The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I would be interested in some feedback as to what stats people would want when entering a trade (predominantly a goals or laying the dog one).
Reason being it would be good to add a minimum in-play stats guide for entering selections from our shortlists.
So for example:
On my half time lay the draw filter I like there to be a minimum score of 6 by HT. Shots on target count as 1pt and shots off target count as 0.5pts, so 4 shots on (4pts) and off (2pts) would qualify as a good entry point.
It could be even simpler like 'I want a minimum of 6 on target by HT for example.
So what would you want your minimum stat-lines to be?
When laying the dog? (we are looking more at dominance of strong team here than total shots of both teams)
At 21mins when going for a first half goal?
At HT?
At 65mins when going for a second half goal?
I like the points based system as it would allow for weighting of more important things such as shots on target.
Possession enter into it at all?
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@james-woodroffe Putting less focus on FHG at present as post COVID doesn't seem as profitable as pre COVID... I always did 1.51 set & forget... Only 2 wins to make up a loss.
Using split stakes on FHG I could make my filter profitable but right now I'm not seeing enough profitable return (ROI) will measure again later but after going through lot's of results at the weekend I've decided SHG warrants more of my energy
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lewis-kershaw better to have software we can modify Discord like Facebook is owned by another company and therefore the group ends up under their control essentially, what do you like from there that we could add here? we are talking about a forum upgrade at the moment as people have mentioned that is can be hard to navigate, it's funny as that's why we moved from FB originally!
Basically just the instant messaging. Thought it would be good whilst people are trading for real-time info. You could for example only allow pro traders to post so it doesn't get clogged up.
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@neil-mallett said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin-futter I think corners need to be in the equation too, probably half a point in your system, although the "shots off" covers most corners, I think that at least one of the "shots off" needs to result in a corner. Also those stats need to be current, the match could meet your minimum in the first 20 mins, then the action tails off, so a now lifeless match could be a pick. So, at least 2 of your points ought to be in the last 10 mins I think.
ok mate what would you suggest as answers to the time questions then for corners?
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@lewis-kershaw better to have software we can modify Discord like Facebook is owned by another company and therefore the group ends up under their control essentially, what do you like from there that we could add here? we are talking about a forum upgrade at the moment as people have mentioned that is can be hard to navigate, it's funny as that's why we moved from FB originally!
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What do people think about a discord group?
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Odds wise i would say 1.45 or above for first entry point such as at 6o mins in second half for next goal but try to do it split staking so your average stakes are above 1.51 so you are looking for 2/3 trades to be winners to be in profit.
I prefer 1.51-1.52 or above for FHG stats at around 15mins depending on your commision that you pay on your account.
Split staking
Using split stake you would want an all odds above 1.52 odds so your next entry point could be 1.56 if your first entry point was odds of 1.45 -
@martin-futter mate when I look to enter a LTD I’m looking for at least 4 shots on target but also strong attacking intent from the favourite. I want a bare minimum of their attacks to be 50% dangerous. I have been entering recently on the average overall first second half goal, which generally tends to be between 60-65 minutes and I want at least 2 shots on target in that first 15,20 mins and again attacking intent. I’d never thought to put it in a points system but I think that could be something that really helps me going forward.
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@alan-steward hey mate what did you look for in FHG’s did you go by a 1.51 set and forget or if joining later for a split on say 21 what were you looking for as regards to in play?
I’m working on 2 shots on target plus attacking intent in the first 19-21 minutes and then going from there depending on odds. -
@geoff Hi mate those are not times they are a total qty of numbers of 15 & 20 which will combine No. shots on target, shots off target & corners... Any combo but at least 5 or 8 shots on target... Hope this helps
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@martin-futter I think corners need to be in the equation too, probably half a point in your system, although the "shots off" covers most corners, I think that at least one of the "shots off" needs to result in a corner. Also those stats need to be current, the match could meet your minimum in the first 20 mins, then the action tails off, so a now lifeless match could be a pick. So, at least 2 of your points ought to be in the last 10 mins I think.
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@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin-futter i like your scoring idea. Do you rate corners highly?
yes I do like a few corners but they aren't make or break for me personally
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@alan-steward what time's are those for? i'm guessing that matters? thanks
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For the first goal I have previously been taught the rule of;
15
The above number would be a combo of shots at goal plus corners but must contain at least 5 shots on target.
For second goal
20
This number would be a combo of shots at goal plus corners but must contain at least 8 shots on target.
Definitely remembered the first one correctly and hopefully the second lol
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@martin-futter i like your scoring idea. Do you rate corners highly?
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I would be interested in some feedback as to what stats people would want when entering a trade (predominantly a goals or laying the dog one).
Reason being it would be good to add a minimum in-play stats guide for entering selections from our shortlists.
So for example:
On my half time lay the draw filter I like there to be a minimum score of 6 by HT. Shots on target count as 1pt and shots off target count as 0.5pts, so 4 shots on (4pts) and off (2pts) would qualify as a good entry point.
It could be even simpler like 'I want a minimum of 6 on target by HT for example.
So what would you want your minimum stat-lines to be?
When laying the dog? (we are looking more at dominance of strong team here than total shots of both teams)
At 21mins when going for a first half goal?
At HT?
At 65mins when going for a second half goal?
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@ryan-carruthers For me the more visual the better as that is how I find it easier to learn, but everyone learns differently
Maybe a video(s) and one page PDF's for each stage we can print out and display somewhere
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@alan-steward really interesting perspective!
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Right I have some lunch to get and results to update... Catch you all later
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward I can see it! It's must be weird for teams playing with no noise that really feeds off that, plus some teams as always at this point of the season have nothing to play for.
I for one hope we get the business sorted then the teams let some of the younger guns play.
Yes mate am concerned for my love, Norwich (Sorry but was born there lol)... We had an excellent home support built up during the last few years and it without a doubt lifted the players... I feel we will lose some home advantage when maybe we needed it most... What will be will be... All true Norwich fans know we were promoted 2/3 seasons before our new squad building/action plan was finalised!
