The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Vorskla v Dnipro
That game didnt show up on my filter. Are you basing it on goals scored?
Also just looked at that game on the stats, and I'm sure I'm missing something obvious, but goals for home stats say 8 but table says 7. Goals for away stats say 9 table says 11.
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer sofa score is a great site!
Yeah for sure. It annoys me they removed the notes section though as it was nice to have a quick little reminder about why you were keeping tabs on a certain game without looking externally.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer sofa score is a great site! im sure the data they get for this could be something that could be added to a live module same as goal profits and trading football sites use.
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer dont need to go too analytical here, lets keep it as simple as possible so we can use it over and over, but i think your talking about relative shots on target, so shots that required a decent save or clearance. For that you would have to watch the game, which is why i still think watching is key. Clear cut chances is still the best measure of how a game goes in my eyes.
Yep, I get that. The big chance metric. They have this on sofa score for many of the bigger games.
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@richard-latimer @Darri
Can't argue with either of those points.
On Sofascore and bet365, you can see where the SOT have taken place and sofascore tells if there have been shots inside the box, post/bat hit etc. Sofascore also has a big chances stat. Combining these with the stat on betfair about action in the last 5 minutes, gives a pretty good indication of whether a goal is likely without watching the game.
Obviously, not as good as watching the game, but take all those together and probability is more on your side. -
@richard-latimer dont need to go too analytical here, lets keep it as simple as possible so we can use it over and over, but i think your talking about relative shots on target, so shots that required a decent save or clearance. For that you would have to watch the game, which is why i still think watching is key. Clear cut chances is still the best measure of how a game goes in my eyes.
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Just a final note about the use of what stats to look for, instead of us all estimating i thought it would make it easier based on pure stats. Im pretty sure that on average it takes a team (these are rounded to whole number) 4 shots on target and 8 off before a goal comes. might be a good base for people to think about especially those who cant watch the game due to time pressure with family and work commitments during games. I suppose those stats would help both 2nd half goal traders and comebacks. But i would still strongly recommend watching the game, like i said previous every game is different, and watching to make sure those shots are key chances or long shots could be the difference between a winning and losing trade.
I thought it was 1 in 3 average on target that ends in a goal although of course this is much less if that shot comes from outside the box.
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@chris-osborne Yep, just enjoy the football that we have today.
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
What are you guys looking at today for possibles and why?
There isn't much that appeals to me today unless something materialises in play probably take the day off
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Just a final note about the use of what stats to look for, instead of us all estimating i thought it would make it easier based on pure stats. Im pretty sure that on average it takes a team (these are rounded to whole number) 4 shots on target and 8 off before a goal comes. might be a good base for people to think about especially those who cant watch the game due to time pressure with family and work commitments during games. I suppose those stats would help both 2nd half goal traders and comebacks. But i would still strongly recommend watching the game, like i said previous every game is different, and watching to make sure those shots are key chances or long shots could be the difference between a winning and losing trade.
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Another clean house yesterday, 0.9 points profit.
- Maribor game were at 12.5 before making a comeback. Whilst in the middle of removing liability on them and laying the away, they managed to pull one back. Just my luck, but profit is profit.
- Maardu went up to 5.0 before making a comeback, got in this trade at 35 minutes, exited at HT. Scored pretty soon after HT, can't complain, always bettter to protect your bank
- Sporting scored with their first shot of the game, didn't enter this game at all.
Today's games from the Ratings page that I shall be monitoring:
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Going to post how i turn a selection into a trade in a step by step guide over the next few days on my road to full time thread/blog. Been asked by a decent amount of members about certain aspects of trading and it seems to be mostly about match selection. While there are pros who have already covered it and well, there are certain differences others take and since we all trade differently might be an interesting read for those who want to pick certain things from each. PRE-DURING-AFTER. You can then link it back to my games iv already posted up as examples.
Also we had a few members saying they felt demoralised and losing a lot recently. Dont be worried about asking for help, feel free to post on here asking or message me, or use the private coaching. Dont want to see traders ever feel like its a losing battle. The one thing to remember is this is a weird time for football. Even tracking games right now feels a bit fraud. No fans is having a huge impact. Also some leagues are already done, nothing to play for. Think of all the games you have lost is it because the league was already over in terms of who wins and qualifies? The summer leagues are finally able to start. But remember every season is different. Lasts years data for me isnt good value to judge. Wait for 8-10 games to be played and then use that data to judge off. Please dont think last years data is still relevant after a transfer window etc.
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
What are you guys looking at today for possibles and why?
Ah well you've seen mine posted above.
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@richard-latimer he's just trying to green up like his dad lol
