The BTC Football Trading Thread
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To see that far better traders than I'll ever be in @Ryan-Carruthers and @Keith-Anderson have stopped trading the FHG's markets in the current climate is interesting.
I did a bit of a deep dive in my results since joining BTC around a month ago, and there is a massive discrepancy between my trading in the first and second half goals markets. Some of it is variance and some of it is going to be down to me but I was thinking about Paper trading these for a while.
Other changes I am going to implement: -
Stop Trading those Leagues which are in Championship/Relegation Play Off stages eg Austria, Czech Republic, Denmark and Poland.
Stop trading regular leagues which have played less than 10% of there season - not enough information from current season relying on historical data
Stop trading regular leagues where there is less than 10% of the season left as most teams will be stuck in mid table obscurity with nothing to play for.
Only trade games I can watch either on tv/streamed so I can focus on the Inplay action more which is an area I need to focus on - @Martin-Futter post the other day is an excellent article in my opinion.
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@ryan-carruthers one of the best videos in my opinion nice one
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I do love Liverpool guys but before the lockdown I got the feeling they had lost their form. From watching them i did get the feeling the team seemed to have gone from figthing for a trophy to we have already won it. This was a good few weeks before the A Madrid game as well.
They lost or drew matches they wouldn't of done before Feb.
They didn't seem to fire on all cylinders and lacked the composure in front of goal.
Dont quote me on this but I got the feeling from general observation they weren't winning games by as big a margin as they were before Feb. They didn't seem to have as many counter attacking opportunities as before Feb.
I would tread carefully with Liverpool for this reason and for the reason they are no fans. Liverpool thrive on the counter attack to do this the opposition need to throw men forward leaving space for Liverpool to attack.
Everton in the Derby yesterday didn't throw men forward like they would of done if the crowd was behind them encourging them to attack Liverpool at home in the first half.
Oh I still think Liverpool has the title in the bag they are 20 points in front. But I do feel they wont be winning the title by 20 points at the end of the season if Man City are motivated (this is questionable and only games will tell if this is the case).
I know i will be watching the games with interest and not diving into the game based on pre match research data for this season.
This can open up space for Liverpool to counter attack and we all knows what happens when liverpool counter attack in numbers.
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@ryan-carruthers i like the layout of your post/video mate. nice clear thought process of why you cut other games out and why this one was included, a lot of newer traders finding that part hard right now. Careful with that game tho, only been 2 games into the season and would assume your then basing stats off last years data? or would you just run with it? Also away to score 1st is only 40% hope that wouldn't change your strat. I also think hacken are the stronger team esp with their signings. Swedish league is my go to for Football Manager 20!
The other post you made about changing how we act since lockdown. Iv been ultra selective. Each game needs to have a team battling for something. Also would encourage everyone to watch team news. This lockdown fixture schedule will make rotation a huge part making games/stats extremely hard to judge. I think trying to keep trading as simple as possible is the way to go in this period. Those that just LCS/LTD are in best place from what iv seen so far. I said in a post earlier even tracking games right now feels fraud because things are totally different in terms of results happening and leagues just restarting. The eye test right now and watching is the best way right now.
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Yesterday also proved how important Robertson is to Liverpool's style of play. No outlet on the left meant Everton could stop the supply to Trent especially with no Salah also
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@alan-steward he used same tactic/formation as he did when in charge at napoli when they played liverpool, must just have a thing for liverpool?!
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@alan-steward Defo, he's done that everywhere he goes. Sign of a good manager I think, stop leaking goals make it hard to play against then work on the attack
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@ryan-carruthers Yeah went for a cheeky last minute goal there as action seemed to pick up around the 80min mark... That said Evertons new manager has shored up their defence big time
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@alan-steward You've got it bud, saw it massively yesterday with Liverpool (I am biased mind) but they've blown teams away from the start for ages.... yesterday they were shocking - yes no crowd, but that's taking a toll on teams and it plays a part on our trading decisions too.
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@ryan-carruthers Okay, think I'm with you and believe you mean form isn't quite the same post COVID... If that's correct I agree and am not trading FHG right now as I don't feel they have resemblance to pre COVID which is what my filters are set to... Have been working on a new SH Goal filter which is currently on fire, but still establishing best entry point and want to see a lot more results in case variance kicks in
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@keith-anderson I have done the same, to varied for me at present.
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson That's crazy odds for the 1.5 isn't it?!
Absolutely! Great value though
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Forgot to say, I’ve also ditched the FHG. I’m good at finding SHG for LTD, so that’s what I’ll concentrate on - the inplays - these were 6/6 on Saturday and 3/3 yesterday
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@keith-anderson That's crazy odds for the 1.5 isn't it?!
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@Everyone This morning I recorded this video of my thoughts on some of my morning research to highlight my thought process and what I am thinking, why I am thinking it.
6pm Sirius (H) v Hacken (A)
Hypothesis: Watch game Hacken to be a back to lay trade if they take the lead.
How did I get here:
Pulled the data from the ratings and the stats.
1st Observation ELO difference - Ratings
1st to score difference - Ratings
1st to concede - Stats
1st to score - Stats
Check the HT & FT Scores
Check the H2H
Overs/undersThe price on Hacken is surprising to me (2.08) Hacken are a better team than Sirius on ELO stats alone, the season has just started though but the stat that also I like to look at this is often overlooked is the first to score which on the ratings puts it at Hacken - which makes you think doesn’t it?
So my next step is to go to the football stats and compare the 1st to score v the 1st to concede, because it looks at though the data has this as a back of Hacken who will score first. I find the H concede (last 10) concede first 70% of the time, the A team score first 50% of the time, looks good.
However the season has just started and I am not sure of their form coming into the season as they finished the last one? Checking the HT scores it looks as though the 0-0 @ HT % is high, which isn’t a bad thing potentially as I want to wait to see how the game starts anyways - let’s check the FT…. The 0-0’s drop massively. Again good sign!
Overs and under again highlight the higher chance of a SHG
How will I play this one then?
Well I will wait till HT if the game is 0-0 I will back Hacken if they are dominating, they need the bulk of shots on target, they need to be in H goal zone a lot too. If not I will walk away.
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I made a mental note yesterday to wait to enter all of my trades in the current set up, the amount of dull FH is unreal.
Has anybody else altered the way they will trade down to current set up?
Yes, backing over 2.5 goals is a no for me. I’m currently backing Over 1.5 goals in la Liga and EPL. Some are 1.7 before kick off.
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@alan-steward I mean now bud, like right now my LTD I will wait to enter. Split stake bit different as its later entry point.
I've also dropped my FHG at present
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@stuart-capstick Yes my friend, less is more!
Focusing on the games that could work and also you have some play to see how they are going which players are doing well, who is getting space where the danger is coming which informs your trade even more.
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I made a mental note yesterday to wait to enter all of my trades in the current set up, the amount of dull FH is unreal.
Has anybody else altered the way they will trade down to current set up?
Hi mate do you mean Post COVID?
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Really strong finish to the week.
Out of yesterday's 17 Goliath picks:
- 11 won outright
- 4 drew. Malmo, Salzburg and Galatasaray were well up at one point or another during the game, Salburz and Gala by 2 goals! The only real draw was the Liverpool game
- 2 lost. One of the losses was Midget Land, who were up by 2 goals at one point, would you believe it?!
Highlight of the day was Galatasaray and Midget Land getting the comeback goal within seconds of one another. The "Actual Odds" column shows the highest odds I got my back bet matched at.
Today's potential trades are as follows. I'll only place a back bet if an opportunity arises, always happy to leave a match alone if I don't get a strong feeling about the flow of momentum:
