The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@martin-futter i think you have taken what i said the wrong way buddy! read my blog im not advocating any tipping service haha! i wasnt trying to make you defensive only asking if you would show the results
which you just said you have 12 sheets to track so cant you just show them? -
@darri the results are posted with the strategies bud, you could also ask the owners of the systems if you want more results
happy for you or any member to do a sheet, I will speak to @Ryan-Carruthers also and see if this is something we can do, it's the time that is the issue don't forget I make a living from trading and can't spend every waking minute on spreadsheets, I already have 12 sheets to track!
an easy solution in the mean time is to just repeat what I always say, test it first don't follow anything blind. test it for a while and see if it is something that will suit you and that you might want to follow it.
don't forget this is not a tipping service, we have no interest in becoming one either, it does not help traders to be that (just ask the hundreds here who have tried them in the past!).
we are solely an education and software service. our mantra is this -
we adapted that famous phrase about fishing and applied it to trading:
'give a person a trade and they can profit once, teach a person to trade and they can profit forever'
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@martin-futter not judging at all bud, was only asking to see the results. I dont know if they are up or not. Just see the email and then someone posts if they did well or not. Would be easier if we saw they were still profitable thats all i was saying. Ill direct them to the strats page but makes it hard to recommend thy follow without proof it still works if you get what i mean. 100 games doesnt make something set in stone, as full time traders we both know that.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Time to get organised for tomorrow:
All away lays if they take the lead.
How are you feeling about England with these? I know you weren't a fan at one point!
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@darri no, we tested them and shared the results together during testing and the members who made the filters tested them before passing them on to us, so with the double testing we were quite happy they work.
also the problem you will get moving forward is whether people use the advice given in this doc or not, if they don't they won't do as well. https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
plus I trade them anyway so I know and am also told by members if they don't do well
what you have to remember is at the moment we are going through a situation that has not been seen. see what happens with the leagues close to a finish next season, as at the moment we advise major caution trading based solely off pre-match. the in-play stats are a lot more important at the moment I am finding regarding goals. so to judge a goals system at the moment is difficult.
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@sam-maccuaig said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@darri can’t speak to the current strategies success but I would say that by far the most helpful thing for me ya been your road to full time and walking through how to develop a strat of your own. It’s not that the email picks aren’t good, but without going through developing something and paper trading I didn’t have a context on how to use them properly. My suggestion for a best place to start is to build your own strat and log the data and paper trade to really understand value and how a strategy evolves, which is exactly what I’m doing now
I always think of it in terms that if it's yours no one can take it away.....ever. As much as I hope this place goes from strength to strength year in year out, I don't think there's any substitute for developing your own strategy which is reliant on nobody but yourself.
What if you suddenly can't get access to the thing that's made you money every month? How can you possibly expect to make a living or even 2nd living off something you're not in full control of?
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@martin-futter i get it mate there are a lot of strats posted on it so would be hard to manually do them all, but are you guys tracking to see if they are profitable still? Would be a nifty add on to have updated p/l sheets
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@darri based on my results goals games have struggled and ratings have smashed it out of the park, if you check the daily email I have written a document covering extensively what we do to trade them. I'm also giving constant email updates on the situation since the restart, I'll copy some of it here for you but you can always just direct those questions to our strategy page or the daily email.
We have written a guide on what to consider before following any trades, this is a must read before following any trades below: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-strategies - video walkthroughs of all strategies
https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/trading-angles - daily instructions and shorlists
I bold this statement everyday: Note: Be very careful trading the goal markets in the leagues that have restarted, they may now have to be considered as new seasons and as such only traded in exceptional circumstances. The ELO rating system seems to be the only one not effected by this and has performed amazingly well. Inplay stats will be a more important indicator than ever. If in any doubt just avoid that match completely.
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@daryl-french there are a host of good ones around the forum mate, and a lot of good traders too! good luck
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@darri I completely agree and understand what you mean by odds being the deciding factor on what is or isn't profitable.
As a new member, I have no option but to forward test the strategies that interest me for myself (either on paper, or in my case for low stakes).
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@daryl-french the only issue i have is on some of them it only shows strike rate rather than what the p/l of each trade was. Iv used this example alot you can predict city would win every game it would appear im winning alot of money but the profit and loss would show me that its not as profitable as you would think. ODDS and P/L(points/%of bank) are the most important things to have been tracked on any spreadsheet. if the btc guys are trading these games then they will have all the odds they entered and could just update them. It will be a total ball ache and i have sympathy for martin if he has yet to do that but you dont just stop tracking stuff after 100 games. It would certainly make them more appealing if they showed these were making good returns.
Its not for me im happy with my own trading and the stuff im doing for the community over on my blog, but when members ask if they are good to follow it would be super easy just to show them results rather than explain how strike rates should be converted to odds etc.
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@darri I am relatively new here, but am also be interested in seeing the results of the daily email selections.
I see each strategy has a link showing a few hundred matches tested which is encouraging, but even better would be functionality in the soccer stats to review historical picks/backtest strategies for ourselves.
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@sam-maccuaig said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@darri can’t speak to the current strategies success but I would say that by far the most helpful thing for me ya been your road to full time and walking through how to develop a strat of your own. It’s not that the email picks aren’t good, but without going through developing something and paper trading I didn’t have a context on how to use them properly. My suggestion for a best place to start is to build your own strat and log the data and paper trade to really understand value and how a strategy evolves, which is exactly what I’m doing now
awesome to hear that mate! Im trying to help on that blog and if anyone takes something from it then it was worth it. Im glad its helpful for you mate
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I've gone through another game similar to yesterday
id be so careful with that trade bud. league just back. Young boys have a dodgy away form. Also look at the scored conceded bit they only score first 30%, you pointed at the fact they concede less first as more important than them having a higher 1st to score %? The only way this trade wins is based on them scoring 1st! Thun before the league stopped has started to build up a bit of form at home. They also dont have a bad head to head vs them. Look we can all say young boys should win and thrash them but that from us guessing and assuming things. They are 2nd and they are bottom it should be a win. BUT basing trades purely from stats this game wouldnt be touched.
I like the strat maybe not this one tho. Feels more a gamble given the stats and odds. Not saying it wont win but we are looking to find solid trades that over a long period of time gives us an edge we profit from not just a couple of lucky guesses.
Also why are you guys not showing the p/l of the daily emails uptodate? Iv asked a couple of times now. can you please either send me a link privately or post them up. I think some have been paper trading and they have been struggling with it. Think the members filters and horses are only ones making consistent profits from what iv read? Not having a go i just want to advise someone who wants to learn if solely following your picks return profits.
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@darri can’t speak to the current strategies success but I would say that by far the most helpful thing for me ya been your road to full time and walking through how to develop a strat of your own. It’s not that the email picks aren’t good, but without going through developing something and paper trading I didn’t have a context on how to use them properly. My suggestion for a best place to start is to build your own strat and log the data and paper trade to really understand value and how a strategy evolves, which is exactly what I’m doing now
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@john-hurst I get the concern about losses wiping out profits, the important thing to remember is losses only matter if they wipe out a larger net than you gain! We’ll see how it plays out, I’m cautious until it’s properly tested but so far it looks extremely promising assuming the proper pre game research is done
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@sam-maccuaig said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Paper trading an ELO set and forget value betting strat at the moment based of the Goliath filter Wes put up a while back. Essentially I'm just taking any match with an home/away position difference of >5 and an ELO difference of more than 300. Strike rate is around 90% without any research or filtering at all (so far still in testing), games I have researched and put as a 'selection' (based on the usual criteria for leagues traded, games in the season etc) I'm at 100%. If the 90% strike rate continues then odds over 1.1 should be value, average so far seems to be about 1.31 at K/O.
Basically all I'm basing it off is backing the Fav assuming odds of over 1.2 and letting it run. So far yield is 22% (but still early doors testing wise).
Does anyone who has experience with the ELO + value betting style approaches have any suggestions for ways I could improve this or obvious pitfalls? It throws up around 1 or 2 games a day so a very nice little background earner with almost no effort if it works.
Id be wary with this strategy at this time of the season + with whats going on at the moment. It will only take a draw and your bet will lose. I wouldnt take the selections at face value as at this time of year some teams have nothing to play for (league winners) and other have a lot (those struggling at the bottom). The ELO ratings are brilliant for outlining potential trades but i wouldn’t rely on them too much.
Personally i’m a bit wary when backing big favourites as the return is so small. Will only take a couple of bad results and the profit made will be wiped out.All this being said if you can find a method that works for you then thats brill. Just seen a lot of games go tits up when following a similar strategy myself.
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer the Q is though am I wrong?
It's not much fun it's true haha! Think the manager is who we need now, some great young players, just not sure about the people at the top though.
Contracts a mess, not sure Arteta is going to backed in the transfer market for who he really needs/wants. We used to no dealings with super agents. it's gone the other way now where I think agents are palming their players off on us in a sticky dealings with Raoul.
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@martin-futter posted this yesterday maybe you didnt see it?
is there a link or page thats shows how each of the daily email selections are doing? Just wanting to see how they are performing, had someone ask me the other day if btc selections was a good start point for someone looking to follow someone and get used to markets
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I've gone through another game similar to yesterday
