The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@richard-latimer sorry Richard, can you add Column headers please no idea what I’m looking at
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Going for a SHG in the Adelaide v Melbourne Victory match. 1-0 after 50 minutes
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer my concern with just basing on complete league data is it’s going to be distorted by high scoring teams pushing averages up and vice versa although I agree as a baseline it is an excellent starting point but shouldn’t be taken in isolation.
I’ve made that mistake the hard way
Take your point completely but it's the expected leagues showing up at the top and this is always combined with a boat load of other data. Never in isolation.
I still need all the other criteria to qualify. Thus far, the proof is in the pudding which I will post up later.
This is my data from what I would consider the more standard leagues where home team is 90%+ over 1.5 last 10 games. I should have specified that these numbers seem to make a far bigger difference for the home team than they do the away.
Over 100 trades for just under 75% and a loss of 31pts:
Limited but this is my data using the higher scoring leagues using same criteria. I don't really see how people could say this data is either unhelpful or irrelevant:
Sample sizes aren't huge but the pattern continues. Success on the higher numbers was only ever achieved back end of April, May & June before it started to go downhill and never stopped.
Now almost 4.5 months on and these numbers are a trainwreck from almost the exact same criteria that I view as qualifier and which moves along at +90% s/r
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Discussion question today:
What does everybody think about trading normal league matches involving youth teams and B teams?
In a lot of Euro 2nd divisions there are these teams in the normal leagues.
I'll do it
I'll do it also, I would imagine if these leagues are continuing, teams may use the opportunity to give first team regulars not at the world cup match practice assuming there are no eligibility criteria especially going into December
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@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Discussion question today:
What does everybody think about trading normal league matches involving youth teams and B teams?
In a lot of Euro 2nd divisions there are these teams in the normal leagues.
I'll do it
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Going for a SHG in the Valencia v Real Betis match. 0-0 at HT
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@karl-pick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dan-mackinnon ....Yes I do, I think because he has doubts about his centre backs, 3 Centre halfs, Rice and Phillips or Bellingham parked in front of them to protect them with Mason in the whole.
Be interesting to see his front 2, I think he is only taking Maddison because of pier pressure and Sterling is so out of form.
I would love to see him play Fodon and Saka but I think that's too aggreesive for him!How is the Maddison selection due to pier pressure he has more goal involvements than Mount, Saka, Foden, Grealish etc. I doubt he'll start but he is a far better option off the bench than most of the idiots Southgate usually selects.
His set piece delivery is also second only to Trent
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@dan-mackinnon ....Yes I do, I think because he has doubts about his centre backs, 3 Centre halfs, Rice and Phillips or Bellingham parked in front of them to protect them with Mason in the whole.
Be interesting to see his front 2, I think he is only taking Maddison because of pier pressure and Sterling is so out of form.
I would love to see him play Fodon and Saka but I think that's too aggreesive for him! -
@andy-donnelly said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne Yeh pleased to see Maddison there, agree he probably won’t start but could be useful as an impact sub. I have a lot of time for Mount but for England if he plays, he should only play in a deeper role in a midfield three and I think Maddison plays higher up if he does get on for England so room for both if he plays a back 4.
Lack of left back cover a bit of a worry if Shaw gets injured.
Don’t think you need both Toney and Wilson if you have Rashford so probably a 50-50 between those.
Trippier can play both full back positions and for me starts ahead of Shaw anyway
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@dan-mackinnon Southgate probably will play 5 at the back. I’d prefer we play 4 tho, get more attacking players on the pitch and let the opponents worry about us
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Also, if we exclude whole leagues based on our own results what's the difference? Future results and systems may be different. By getting an overall picture of a league we may be able to find the odd diamond in the rough imo.
You need to consider the league data from the games that you actually trade/ come up on your filter, as opposed to the overall league data.
I consider both but the overall is a larger sample. I think it's too easy to dismiss it as irrelevant even though I know it doesn't paint the whole picture. I've said as much.
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Looking at the squad do you think we’ll still play 5-3-2 like we did in the Euros?
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Also, if we exclude whole leagues based on our own results what's the difference? Future results and systems may be different. By getting an overall picture of a league we may be able to find the odd diamond in the rough imo.
You need to consider the league data from the games that you actually trade/ come up on your filter, as opposed to the overall league data.
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@chris-osborne Yeh pleased to see Maddison there, agree he probably won’t start but could be useful as an impact sub. I have a lot of time for Mount but for England if he plays, he should only play in a deeper role in a midfield three and I think Maddison plays higher up if he does get on for England so room for both if he plays a back 4.
Lack of left back cover a bit of a worry if Shaw gets injured.
Don’t think you need both Toney and Wilson if you have Rashford so probably a 50-50 between those.
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@andy-donnelly said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Thoughts on the England squad? I thought generally speaking it was positive. The exceptions being the expected decision to pick Maguire and picking Phillips who is well short of minutes, but overall could be a lot worse!
Tomori and Abraham for Maguire and Gallagher/Phillips both of whom will be a red card waiting to happen. At least he didn’t pick Mings also.
As a Leicester fan Southgate made his first decent decision in five years in selecting Maddison. Saved me going off on one. Don’t expect he’ll play for one minute over Southgate’s desperately over rated love child in Mount but at least he’s going.
Is the decision to leave Toney out based on Football decisions or the off field investigation that’s currently ongoing
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Thoughts on the England squad? I thought generally speaking it was positive. The exceptions being the expected decision to pick Maguire and picking Phillips who is well short of minutes, but overall could be a lot worse!
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer my concern with just basing on complete league data is it’s going to be distorted by high scoring teams pushing averages up and vice versa although I agree as a baseline it is an excellent starting point but shouldn’t be taken in isolation.
I’ve made that mistake the hard way
Take your point completely but it's the expected leagues showing up at the top and this is always combined with a boat load of other data. Never in isolation.
I still need all the other criteria to qualify. Thus far, the proof is in the pudding which I will post up later.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer my concern with just basing on complete league data is it’s going to be distorted by high scoring teams pushing averages up and vice versa although I agree as a baseline it is an excellent starting point but shouldn’t be taken in isolation.
I’ve made that mistake the hard way
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Also, if we exclude whole leagues based on our own results what's the difference? Future results and systems may be different. By getting an overall picture of a league we may be able to find the odd diamond in the rough imo.
