The BTC Football Trading Thread

[A Former User]

Paper trading an ELO set and forget value betting strat at the moment based of the Goliath filter Wes put up a while back. Essentially I'm just taking any match with an home/away position difference of >5 and an ELO difference of more than 300. Strike rate is around 90% without any research or filtering at all (so far still in testing), games I have researched and put as a 'selection' (based on the usual criteria for leagues traded, games in the season etc) I'm at 100%. If the 90% strike rate continues then odds over 1.1 should be value, average so far seems to be about 1.31 at K/O.

Basically all I'm basing it off is backing the Fav assuming odds of over 1.2 and letting it run. So far yield is 22% (but still early doors testing wise).

Does anyone who has experience with the ELO + value betting style approaches have any suggestions for ways I could improve this or obvious pitfalls? It throws up around 1 or 2 games a day so a very nice little background earner with almost no effort if it works.

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer the Q is though am I wrong?

[Richard Latimer]

@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@matthew-biggins Ahaha yes!!! I do feel for their fans!

I mean imagine being an Arsenal fan at the moment......

Harsh haha

[Ryan]

@matthew-biggins Ahaha yes!!! I do feel for their fans!

I mean imagine being an Arsenal fan at the moment......

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer thought this was a new home team only one!

No, the one underneath is new but not just home teams. The one underneath that is just home teams that go 0-2 behind.

[Martin]

@matthew-biggins frustratin, the positive is that if a missed pen was between you and profit then at least you weren't far off

[A Former User]

@frode-lia said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Backing over 3.5 in Viola v Brsecia @ 2.3

Two red trades for the day. Surprising, for Chiesa was on fire.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer thought this was a new home team only one!

[Richard Latimer]

These I will ony lay if they go 0-2 down. By that stage we should be talking about a real nice short price lay. If they happen to get a goal back I will either remove liability and leave as a free bet or just let it run for the 0-0. All this is liability dependent as well as dependent on when a goal back happens.

If it happens in the 85th minute there's probably no point in doing anything with it:

Elche is one only for tracking at present. Better numbers on the other 3. It should be noted I'm not looking at the away stats at all here. By the time I enter they've already scored 2 and the lay price is super short. No, this is is all based on home teams who score loads which should open the potential for a comeback.

[Richard Latimer]

These next few are from the backing filter I was developing which started to look just as good and a little safer as a lay system:

Austria Vienna would be a home lay, the rest away lays:

If they go 1-0 down I lay, they go 2-0 down I re-lay. Where they to go 3-0 down I would re-lay that too because by this point you are talking peanuts with a potential upside on just one goal back.

These aren't massive favourites so if they find the equaliser I'll cash out immediately at present until I have more data on optimal times etc...

[Akiva Anderson]

@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Backing Over 1.5 goals in the Leganes v Granada match. Odds before kick-off are around 1.7

Poor! The missed penalty didn’t help

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Time to get organised for tomorrow:

All away lays if they take the lead.

How have these been getting on?

@Martin-Futter you've been doing them haven't you haha??!

An incredibly deep purple patch right now. It won't continue forever but I have enough faith long term regardless.

[A Former User]

@martin-futter I've just had almost a full week of goals coming just the wrong side of the window I need them to and the trades I do get on I've had to sit and watch teams miss chance after chance after chance. Leganes have topped that off tonight missing a penalty which would have left me just about green.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Time to get organised for tomorrow:

All away lays if they take the lead.

How have these been getting on?

[Martin]

@matthew-biggins what’s happened mate? Do you want to have an in depth chat on the private coaching?

[A Former User]

Looking like another red day. So demoralising seeing profit being eaten away on a daily basis.

[Richard Latimer]

Time to get organised for tomorrow:

All away lays if they take the lead.

[James Woodroffe]

@keith-anderson amazingly the FHG is at 1.72 before KO. The H2H’s between them are not a fair indication given the years in between meetings. I personally don’t care what happened in 2017.
Leganes have scored or conceded in 6 of their last 8 home matches in the FH and Granada have scored or conceded in their last 6 away matches. I’ll be on this as well as the O1.5.

[A Former User]

Some of the teams we trade on are so frustrating to watch. Christ knows what it's like actually supporting them.

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing for me tonight with City going ahead.