The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@martin I think you’d be justified in leaving that game to be fair. Funnily enough it came up for me and it thought ‘hmmm, not sure about that one’!
I just try to think ‘if I trade this and lose then I’ll be annoyed, if I leave it and it wins then I’ll still accept I thought it was the right choice’
Normally I’d try to check my data and see if I had anything that even gave an indication but with B teams and U23 then I can’t imagine I have much, even with 5000 games now on my filter
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer everyone on here knows how much work you do collecting data etc probably too much.
If there’s anything I can do to help automate and reduce the manual intervention your doing then let me know.
Cheers Chris,
A perfect example of high numbers today is Heracles. High scoring league but those numbers are off the charts. Not saying it won't be a goal fest but I won't be touching it with a bargepole!!
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Discussion question today:
What does everybody think about trading normal league matches involving youth teams and B teams?
In a lot of Euro 2nd divisions there are these teams in the normal leagues.
Are you desperate for something to trade during the WC….get yourself down to shevington rec and you might even beat the betfair delay on the under 13’s games!
Seriously though I do trade B teams and U23s for the better leagues. A lot of smaller clubs now are just feeder clubs to larger ones anyway so I’m not sure it’s massively different. I have never really checked if I SHOULD trade them statistically but it’d be very difficult to quantify anyway so I will continue for now but with caution
I’m not asking this for the World Cup, just interested in thoughts on them as I’m not a big fan of it. For example there is a game in Belgium 2nd div today between two under 23 teams, not sure how seriously I could trade a match like that.
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@richard-latimer everyone on here knows how much work you do collecting data etc probably too much.
If there’s anything I can do to help automate and reduce the manual intervention your doing then let me know.
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne I sometimes get a lot of heat on the tube for the fact I like pre match data and people spew examples of how data can be skewed, which is true.
That's why you need to make sure its right what you are looking at and how, why etc...
I work with data and spreadsheets all day and if it’s not in context or poorly presented it’s difficult to read and meaningless and could be dangerous.
I get that.
I will try and add some column headers
Was really only trying to help people look at things from a different/oft unexplored angle
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@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne I sometimes get a lot of heat on the tube for the fact I like pre match data and people spew examples of how data can be skewed, which is true.
That's why you need to make sure its right what you are looking at and how, why etc...
I never just mess around with things anymore for the sake of it. I need to find something which makes logical sense.....even potentially......to explore it further.
Hence I never remove anything from the mid range of a data set even if it looks poor. There's no justification to do it.
I do find however, and have for a while now, that removing things at both the top end and bottom end of the scale does make sense.....especially when there is limited info towards it.
I can remove it and continue to track it all the same.
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@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
For me when it comes to data it has to have context and be relevant to what I am looking at, just collecting data or looking at data for datas sake doesn't fit.
It's got to have a purpose and link to my decisions.
All the data I'm collecting/have collected has very much led to my final decision even if I wasn't sure it would do at the beginning. I had to go back and collect.certain things manually so I had no gaps once I realised it could be relevant to the final outcome.
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‘It ain’t what you dont know that gets you into trouble, it’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so’
This is kind of the point I was trying to make yesterday about no data being better than incorrect irrelevant data!
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@mark-maguire This is a great example of using data effectively!
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@chris-osborne Exactly that!
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@ryan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@chris-osborne I sometimes get a lot of heat on the tube for the fact I like pre match data and people spew examples of how data can be skewed, which is true.
That's why you need to make sure its right what you are looking at and how, why etc...
I work with data and spreadsheets all day and if it’s not in context or poorly presented it’s difficult to read and meaningless and could be dangerous.
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@Ryan Exactly this for me too.. my data collection is to inform decision making and staking and over time for example to adjust strategy - an example is that I stake O2.5 markets, drip feeding, convention says wait 20 mins or more before first drip but my data collection showed me that that would eliminate 35% of winning trades because my filters are throwing up a high proportion of early goals... so after reviewing that over a large number of games I was able to pick my points for staking
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@chris-osborne I sometimes get a lot of heat on the tube for the fact I like pre match data and people spew examples of how data can be skewed, which is true.
That's why you need to make sure its right what you are looking at and how, why etc...
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@keith-anderson Nice one Keith thanks ps see you're still being generous with your sharing of trades ..Kudos
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@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Discussion question today:
What does everybody think about trading normal league matches involving youth teams and B teams?
In a lot of Euro 2nd divisions there are these teams in the normal leagues.
I don't really trade outside of the top leagues in Europe. I tend to save my staking for leagues / teams I know quite well.
There will still be plenty of trading opportunities during the world cup
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@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Discussion question today:
What does everybody think about trading normal league matches involving youth teams and B teams?
In a lot of Euro 2nd divisions there are these teams in the normal leagues.
Are you desperate for something to trade during the WC….get yourself down to shevington rec and you might even beat the betfair delay on the under 13’s games!
Seriously though I do trade B teams and U23s for the better leagues. A lot of smaller clubs now are just feeder clubs to larger ones anyway so I’m not sure it’s massively different. I have never really checked if I SHOULD trade them statistically but it’d be very difficult to quantify anyway so I will continue for now but with caution
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer sorry Richard, can you add Column headers please no idea what I’m looking at
These are the numbers I'm talking about specifically. The rest is all just my various criteria:
The over 1.5 percentages for both home and away. They are the thing I'm debating as to standard scoring leagues not doing well when the over % is high.
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer sorry Richard, can you add Column headers please no idea what I’m looking at
Yeah, I don't have column headers for it all. The over 1.5% are just to the right off of first green highlighted numbers. Home on the left, Away on the right.
It's really just to highlight the win/loss, profit/loss ratio for these 2 things which is to the right highlighted in green or red.
