The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Pretty uneventful night for me. Just the one scratch trade on a LTD in the Benfica game. As it happened it would have turned into a bit more green if I’d have held out after the first goal. Mind you with the stats not pointing towards a second Maritimo goal I’m not too fussed about that.
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@stuart-capstick Just ran a quick analysis of the 2018/19 season for all the "winter leagues" in Europa and South America. The 10 most often occurred results across all the leagues were as follows:
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Going to call it quits for the night I think. 2 points green so happy with that.
The FHG filter testing went 1 from 2.
The first match in Sweden with Hacken went 0-0 and the odds for a LTD were to high up until and at the time of the 60th minute goal.
The second match saw me get matched at 1.51 and 2.02 in Iceland for the Vikingur match and the goal came shortly after before Vikingur made it 3-0 by the break.
Had a win with Richard’s lay the leader in Italy but I did lay in the Benfica match at 2-0 but the loss was minimal. Got my 2HG in Turkey did a LCS on 65 mins and another one that was interrupted by the suspended market for the offside goal around 84 mins.
I thought at the time that might have been the moment so didn’t enter the LCS again. Which is a shame cause the odds were around 1.35 at the time.
Did a LTD in Italy which came thru on about 56 mins lay odds were 2.50 at HT. Jumped on the O1.5 in Spain with Getafe and got 1.58 at KO was going to re enter on 30 but goal came on 19 so decided to take green and call it quits.
In a happy place with my trading at the moment slow and steady to get to where I’m heading. -
@andrew-wooding said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
So fella’s I had an idea, or thought I may have found an edge but I’m not sure. Want to get some thoughts if that’s ok.
Dutching Ht correct scores. Generally speaking 73-78% of all HT scores are; 0-0, -1-0, 0-1 or 1-1. That’s the premise.
Ive been looking at the frequency of those HT scores for both teams in a particular match. Add them together to get an overall % chance of one of those 4 HT scores in that match.
Then look at the HT correct score market and see what ROI you get by dutching those scores. If the ROI % and the correct score probability add up to over 100 then you have an edge.
Example - last night Espanyol v R.madrid - 85.55% chance based on both teams HT stats that score would be one of those 4. Dutching ROI was 27.9%, this making 113.45 and a 13.45% edge.
Have I got this right? Have I missed anything glaring or got my calculations muddled up?
Thoughts? Thanks.
So are you saying you were effectively getting 1.28 odds of those results?
85% correlates at odds of around 1.17 decent edge if your percentage holds up over the long term.
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@alan-steward
You'd be surprised; I was.
France Ligue 1 11%
Eng Championship 8%
Serie A 7%
Premier League 8%
La Liga 7%
Allsvenskan 7%Only the Dutch league comes close (4%), but value on 0-0 LTD/LCS is awful in the Eredivisie.
For example, in the Fylkir Grotta game this evening, you could LTD at 60 mins for around 2.6-2.7 when the score was 0-0.
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@alan-steward
Hi Alan.
Yea fair enough, it is complicated granted.
It’s just something that occurred to me and I wondered whether it had legs. Anytime you find something provides a higher % rate of return then % probability of failure is worth exploring.Look forward to your DM.
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@gary-brown said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Possibly pointless, random fact of the day: over the last 8 years, only 4% of games in Iceland's top division (pepsideild) have ended 0-0.
That doesn't mean jump on any 0-0 game, but gives a little confidence if it's on your filters, 0-0 at 70 mins, a decent price and there is action.
THATS FANTASTIC. Isnt the average around 10%
I thought 4% was about the average for 0-0's... Might be wrong tho
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@andrew-wooding Hi mate, I have a lot of experience within the correct score market and will look to get my head around your proposed idea in the morning.
Right off the bat it seems a fair bit of work and I say this because it seems you need to evaluate opportunities at HT?
Dont always look to reinvent the wheel there are some fantastic simple trades currently used within BTC. Richard Latimer has done a great job structuring the "Lay The Dog" strat.
Then theres Martin's SH goal filter.
I will get my head around your idea in the morning and contact you via PM okay
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Laid Empoli @ 1.40
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@gary-brown said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Just heard that Benfica manager just handed in his resignation.
Lol not surprising after that defeat
Good. He can give me my 21p back haha!!
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@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I’ve gone for a LTD in the Pordedone match half stake now and half again on 65-70 if inplay looks good.
1-0.
Nice one that was on the ltd filter too
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So fella’s I had an idea, or thought I may have found an edge but I’m not sure. Want to get some thoughts if that’s ok.
Dutching Ht correct scores. Generally speaking 73-78% of all HT scores are; 0-0, -1-0, 0-1 or 1-1. That’s the premise.
Ive been looking at the frequency of those HT scores for both teams in a particular match. Add them together to get an overall % chance of one of those 4 HT scores in that match.
Then look at the HT correct score market and see what ROI you get by dutching those scores. If the ROI % and the correct score probability add up to over 100 then you have an edge.
Example - last night Espanyol v R.madrid - 85.55% chance based on both teams HT stats that score would be one of those 4. Dutching ROI was 27.9%, this making 113.45 and a 13.45% edge.
Have I got this right? Have I missed anything glaring or got my calculations muddled up?
Thoughts? Thanks.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Laid Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 0-1 up
Was a cheap lay. Nothing day at present.
Will stay that way unless Juve Stabia or Empoli can grab a goal from somewhere.
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Just heard that Benfica manager just handed in his resignation.
Lol not surprising after that defeat
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@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I’ve gone for a LTD in the Pordedone match half stake now and half again on 65-70 if inplay looks good.
1-0.
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@stuart-capstick too right it scratched my correct score trade lol
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Few games across the filters today, what is everybody trading?
I've taken a couple of days away from trading my correct scores but might fancy a pop with the following match tonight;
Turkey Super Lig 29/06/2020 19:00 Genclerbirligi v Kasimpasa
This qualifies for a 3 goal dutch;
Previous 10 games overall o1.5 = 85%
Goal Expectancy Ratings page = 3.01 (to qualify needs to be over 2.7)
H2H's = Previous reverse fixture had 4 goalsMight fancy a bit of fun with this one later, it's been a good month and I'm now preparing myself mentally for my Independence Day next Saturday 4th July
Scratched my correct score trade thanks to a late goal in Turkey... Layed the 1-0 to cover red... Final score 0-2
1pt green on the night;
Fhg in Denmark 0.5pts
Shg in Portugal 0.5pts3 trades & 1pt green, not too shabby for a skinny night of football... Catch up with you all later
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I’ve gone for a LTD in the Pordedone match half stake now and half again on 65-70 if inplay looks good.
