The BTC Football Trading Thread

James Woodroffe

@richard-latimer I’ve started using SofaScore recently and not sold on it because of just that point so yeah mainly LiveScore, getting used to SofaScore.

Richard Latimer

@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer fair enough mate but I mainly stick to LiveScore and SofaScore and also I totally forgot about Bet365.

Sofascore the best only have stats for the biggest of leagues. Probably tells you something haha!

Richard Latimer

Laid Shakhtar Karagandy 0-1 up @ 1.78. Inplay stats seem level enough so they're not getting whipped haha!!

James Woodroffe

@richard-latimer fair enough mate but I mainly stick to LiveScore and SofaScore and also I totally forgot about Bet365.

Richard Latimer

@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@andrew-wooding cheers mate. to be honest not sure how much I trust their in play stats for trading. I could be wrong but on the other hand I’ve got enough to monitor tonight to give them a skip.
3.45 LTD odds also at HT.

Where do you use for your inplay stats then as none of them are 100% accurate?

James Woodroffe

@andrew-wooding cheers mate. to be honest not sure how much I trust their in play stats for trading. I could be wrong but on the other hand I’ve got enough to monitor tonight to give them a skip.
3.45 LTD odds also at HT.

Richard Latimer

@andrew-wooding said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@james-woodroffe bet365 no?

Elblag is definitely on there.

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@james-woodroffe bet365 no?

James Woodroffe

The 3 matches I mentioned this morning from Poland 2 are off the table. No in play stats and no way to monitor the matches.

Eamonn Hogan

something i looked at last night was interesting. In the first half correct score market the any other score price (i.e not 0-0 0-1 1-0 1-1 1-2 2-1 or 2-2) was extremely high. I backed it in the barcelona game at 22.0 and laid it off at 5.0 when barca scored. also the man utd game which was very attacking was 8.6 after utd went 1-0 up. I cashed out of it again at 2 after a second goal

Martin

Avoiding Salzburg from the daily emails the site I checked the table on must be wrong!

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@darri for a newbie this is great insight and reaffirms the quality over quantity aspect of what we’re doing, thanks Darri

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There are a couple of games to take a closer look at today before trading them:

Valencia vs athletic bilboa: be careful here valencia have just sacked the manager, this means historic data is less accurate going forward so please have this in mind, i know it was on my 2nd half filter. Id avoid.

Salzburg vs sturm graz: @Richard-Latimer already said it perfectly its a dead rubber. Salzburg have won the league. This one might still seem viable but motivation has got to be key in any trade given current climate of odd results. (they may win 7-0) but thats with hindsight.

I wont say these wont have goals or stick to same trends/still win but we are trading and trading is about limiting risk so might be a couple to just leave/monitor. We arent gambling we are trading and need to weigh up risk, these show more risk than usual even tho they seem obvious trades. We are trying to find reasons not to enter a trade if we find none then we enter. These little things help create edges on the market. They were the only two i had for my filter today too!!

Richard Latimer

And if the home teams in boxes should fall behind 0-2 it will be a VERY short price lay on the away team:

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Richard Latimer

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Still plenty to play for in these and if the away team takes a lead you should be looking at a short price lay.

James Woodroffe

Other matches I’ll monitor tonight for LTD or late goal
Preston v Derby
Birmingham v Huddersfield
Rapid v LASK
Hartberg v Wolfsberger
Inter v Brescia.
West Ham v Chelsea

The Bournemouth v Newcastle game has made my short list as mentioned earlier but not the Alaves match.

Richard Latimer

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer for me even though the season is over for them they have such great goal threat it outweighs the fact it could be a dead rubber.

Absolutely. I suppose it just depends whether they play a bunch of kids on work experience haha!

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@richard-latimer for me even though the season is over for them they have such great goal threat it outweighs the fact it could be a dead rubber.

Richard Latimer

Ok so new day:

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@Martin-Futter has already posted these and emailed on his daily trading advice but he still has Salzburg in. Not sure why as it looks to me like Salzburg have won the league now with only 2 games left and 9pts clear.

In any case, I know these make money long term but I think now might be about fine tuning how I play them and when. I'm not going to look for complete domination on teams that are losing as I feel that's unrealistic but if a quck glance at inplay stats shows the stronger team is having it's pants pulled round it's ankles I may wait for either some kind of upsurge, a 2nd goal to go against, 2nd goal and a red as per Vaduz yesterday ffs haha!!!

Point is I trust these when they go 2 down up to a point but when you're liability is higher anyway from the first lay it's not so easy to stick it out into a winning position. Also as you would imagine, the later a goal back the more unlikely long term that the stronger team manages to get the 2nd back.

So in short if team is as Martin has put it before showing at least a little attacking intent I will lay
If neither team has really done much so far and the weaker team got lucky I will lay
If stronger team playing like a bag of spanners I will wait it out for a bit haha!!

James Woodroffe

Good morning guys,
Going thru my list and am interested in these 3 matches in Poland 2 today. All qualify for a LTD and some qualify for a late goal if 1-0 or 0-1 at time of entry. All 3 matches are crucial to the teams involved as either automatic promotion or a playoff birth is still very much on.

15:00 Elblag v Pogon. LTD or 2HG on 70
16:00 Blectini v Leczna LTD or 2HG on 70
17:00 Katowice v Polkowice LTD or 2HG on 60

I’m looking at some other matches just still working thru the list and two potential O1.5’s at Bournemouth and Alaves but they still to be looked at properly.
Here’s to a new month of green.