The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@chris-osborne somtimes u just get such bad luck but the postive here is u stuck to ur trading plan
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@andrew-wooding a classic example of not just jumping in on what guys post was me posting yesterday about the Bundesliga 3 match that was unmanaged. Yeah statistically it was a good trade and the chance for a turnaround. I posted then after the fact realised it was unmanaged and I had stuffed up big time cause I couldn’t get out of it. Felt like a right knob because not only had I not noticed I also posted.
I would have felt terrible if someone new had jumped on that trade. -
@sam-maccuaig I couldn’t agree more mate. My trading plan was pretty simple yesterday and had I not deviated would have been a really good one and one I could feel proud of. Because I deviated I felt a bit grubby despite ending slightly green.
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@sam-maccuaig it’s what I struggle with.. kid in a sweet shop syndrome. I have a few strategies I’m following. Then I’ll see one of you guys say ‘this looks good etc’ and bang I’m tempted to do it in the knowledge that there is a thought out rationale. If it goes wrong I kick myself for not sticking to the 2/3 picks I had.. only 1 of which I might even get on if the conditions are right.
What I should be doing is following just those strategies through dvd improving them, thinking about them.. -
02/07/20 17:00 Norway Eliteserien Kristiansund v Molde LTD
02/07/20 18:00 Sweden Allsvenskan Hammarby v Varbergs LTD
02/07/20 20:45 Italy Serie A AS Roma v Udinese LTD
Todays picks from me. Touch wood my LTD picks have been great. Making good use of the ratings system to sort out the good from the bad. 12/13 wins in a week with only a small loss in the losing trade. Traded out early. Limited football on today so good opportunity to focus on what is there. Lets have a good one peeps
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@james-woodroffe big change for me was feeling bad even if I had a green day but deviated from my plan. A good day isn’t one where you green, a good day is one where you stick to your long term plan, red or green. That was the biggest mindset shift that’s helped me so far
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@ryan-carruthers thanks for posting about your day yesterday. It’s interesting cause I felt like for me yesterday was what could be perceived as being lucky but I’m not entirely sure. Like yourself I felt great yesterday and my days prep was pretty similar (minus the cat) then I felt it kinda unravel. I needed to learn 365’s inplay stats and how they read on the screen as I had 3 trades I relied upon that info. Immediately I began telling myself “I don’t like this” and for whatever reason began to get not flustered but scattered. My concentration levels dipped I traded a match that was unmanaged and suddenly the gains in mentality and bank Id made recently looked to be walking out the door.
I asked myself “why are you doing dumb s**t”? Realised there was a reason addressed it and came back relaxed and stuck to my plan and turned it around. The post is a little long winded but the point I’m making is you stuck to your plans and had a red day it happens. Which is why you feel good today. I should have had a red day for not sticking to my plans. I feel good today because in the past I wouldn’t have addressed the issue properly and it’s all part of learning and improving. -
@john-hurst Yes, I am happy to share my ups and my downs buddy
Let's hope I don't have many though!
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@ryan-carruthers need more of these losing stories, especially from the successful people on here. Keeps it real
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AIK are looking a good price today, going through the H2H stats and a few others, very much one to watch in play there guys.
The Elo is the right direction too, the H2H looks good for me.
Current price is 2.66
On ELO difference this gives a 64% implied probability, which is 1.54, taking this in play and if the game is going in the favour of AIK we could get a really nice bit of value there.
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@richard-latimer Yes that happened with me, it would have been worse if I had of traded AC Milan as that was on the sheet but I managed to stick to the rules on that!
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I'm going to post here..... you won't see many others posting about this, yesterday I lost money, I had a losing day.....
The day started like any other day, coffee, forum, cat sat with me & me looking through the forum and collecting my research for the day..... I was feeling great yesterday as well, clear mind, everything!
The trades looked solid for me as well yesterday, narrowed them down to just a couple of trades.
They wasn't kicking off till later, I had dinner with the wife, chatted & joked. Came to trading focused feeling great, the games got to HT one was a back of the fav if losing the other HT LTD.
The stats looked solid, but nothing happened in the games at all - even though the stats continued to be brilliant.
I get up this morning, I still feel good. I know I made the right decisions on the trades & today is a new day, I have the coffee, I have the cat, I am doing my research and I am on here!
Thanks for posting this Ryan
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I'm going to post here..... you won't see many others posting about this, yesterday I lost money, I had a losing day.....
The day started like any other day, coffee, forum, cat sat with me & me looking through the forum and collecting my research for the day..... I was feeling great yesterday as well, clear mind, everything!
The trades looked solid for me as well yesterday, narrowed them down to just a couple of trades.
They wasn't kicking off till later, I had dinner with the wife, chatted & joked. Came to trading focused feeling great, the games got to HT one was a back of the fav if losing the other HT LTD.
The stats looked solid, but nothing happened in the games at all - even though the stats continued to be brilliant.
I get up this morning, I still feel good. I know I made the right decisions on the trades & today is a new day, I have the coffee, I have the cat, I am doing my research and I am on here!
Good to hear. Obv not good to hear but it's exactly how I felt yesterday. 4 main trades. All continued to look good but either the goals didn't come or they went the other way against the run of play.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
I'm going to post here..... you won't see many others posting about this, yesterday I lost money, I had a losing day.....
The day started like any other day, coffee, forum, cat sat with me & me looking through the forum and collecting my research for the day..... I was feeling great yesterday as well, clear mind, everything!
The trades looked solid for me as well yesterday, narrowed them down to just a couple of trades.
They wasn't kicking off till later, I had dinner with the wife, chatted & joked. Came to trading focused feeling great, the games got to HT one was a back of the fav if losing the other HT LTD.
The stats looked solid, but nothing happened in the games at all - even though the stats continued to be brilliant.
I get up this morning, I still feel good. I know I made the right decisions on the trades & today is a new day, I have the coffee, I have the cat, I am doing my research and I am on here!
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Well, given that we thrashed Bournemouth 4-1 on their home ground, I think it's obvious that Newcastle are going to storm the Premiership next season.
With Joelinton (the most unskillful Brazilian ever; I'm sure he's really called Joe Linton and actually comes from Gateshead) likely to go, I'm sure the new owners will persuade Mbappe or Werner to come instead. Along with Bale (just for the craic(, Sancho, Haaland and Alphonso Davies, we'll be the envy of all.
be nice to see a new team mixing it up at the top. Hope yous can get up there and rattle a few of the bigger teams. No reason why you cant.
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@eamonn-hogan any green is a good green son well done
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@stuart-capstick food for thought i will consider that i rember alan shearer days LOL
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Right, I'm offski. Tomorrow is another day and all that.
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Well, given that we thrashed Bournemouth 4-1 on their home ground, I think it's obvious that Newcastle are going to storm the Premiership next season.
With Joelinton (the most unskillful Brazilian ever; I'm sure he's really called Joe Linton and actually comes from Gateshead) likely to go, I'm sure the new owners will persuade Mbappe or Werner to come instead. Along with Bale (just for the craic(, Sancho, Haaland and Alphonso Davies, we'll be the envy of all.
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@simji said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
What I meaning by being found out was I wouldn't say at beginning of season you would be expected to be around 5/6/7 but now after a few results regression around tenth is where people might have put you.
I think 10th was probably around 10 places higher than a lot of people would have had us tbh mate haha.
Without the break who knows where we would have ended up. Agree with what you said about allowing some teams to reset though. Think the Premier League is slowly but surely getting back up to its usual speed. The West Ham Chelsea game was easily one of the most enjoyable games to watch as a neutral since the restart.
