The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@richard-latimer It's basically a show match, isn't it? Liverpool has absolutely nothing to play for. You could argue that City are not mathematically certain of a 2nd place but they are guaranteed Champions League, so how much do they really care? I guess none of the teams want to lose it but I guess we'll find out when the team sheets are published how serious they take the game.
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@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Finally, if either of these 2 home teams find themselves 0-2 down I will lay the opposition:
If the english, european and world champions go 2-0 up you will lay them?
Yeah haha
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Finally, if either of these 2 home teams find themselves 0-2 down I will lay the opposition:
If the english, european and world champions go 2-0 up you will lay them?
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Nice one thanks @gary-brown
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@dean-adams said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@Ryan-Carruthers
I’ve been traking your O1.5 split stake for nearly 100 games now and it’s strike rate is pukka so far! (Based on outright win, even better for 1 goal) Seems like it could work in 3 drips at 10 30 and 50 providing the price is right. Would you get in any earlier if the price is there already? Cheersim not sure it would work Dene as odds would be really low at 10mins for 0ver 1.5 goals in alot of the games. I must admit thiugh since lockdown i have noticed some great over 1.5 goal value in some matches. Keith has been brill at spotting these as well and posting them like he has done today.
Best thing to do is track the odds and the results and work out what your profit and loss would be when the goals are scored.
Its best way to test a strategy is recording the odds and goal times if these are needed in a strategy. Yes its hard work but in the end it will save you money or confirm that your theory is correct it can make you money in the future.
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@Ryan-Carruthers
I’ve been traking your O1.5 split stake for nearly 100 games now and it’s strike rate is pukka so far! (Based on outright win, even better for 1 goal) Seems like it could work in 3 drips at 10 30 and 50 providing the price is right. Would you get in any earlier if the price is there already? Cheers -
@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
One of the things that's made a massive difference for me and did do years back was I took a quarterly view of my trading. I don't get too worried by my results monthly I aim for a quarterly profit.
Cleared my mind up years back and I've gone with it for a loooong time now!
Cheers for that Ryan it might be something I take on board also. A lot to be said for it.
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One of the things that's made a massive difference for me and did do years back was I took a quarterly view of my trading. I don't get too worried by my results monthly I aim for a quarterly profit.
Cleared my mind up years back and I've gone with it for a loooong time now!
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@darri excellent post. Thanks for taking the time to write it. Like anything in life psychology plays an enourmous part. If you’re ‘a gambler’ you have a mentality which is difficult to shift towards that of a ‘trader’. It’s another step entirely to change it to that of a pro trader for the reasons you give. On that journey myself. Have copied the text if your msg and will read it back to myself at length.. frequently. Thanks again.
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question for all … do any of you trade the corners in a game market? as iv just looked at hulls game tonight and ov 10.5 corners odds of 2 on offer its half hr out the ladder looks gappy like a dogs market wondering if you get big swings in the odds inplay as never monitored it
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@matt-wood this was me not long ago mate! i think it boils down to confidence and experience, something that cannot be taught but learned by yourself over time. You only get confidence in your trading once you have a long history of consistent profit. I think the biggest hurdle between the full time traders and the newer traders is the knowledge that their good days will outweigh the bad ones. I cant praise @Ryan-Carruthers enough for the post earlier. As inplay traders we will have runs good and bad. These will include individual trades as well as losing days. Newer traders get hung up over an individual trade or a bad day, there is the saying a need for green. This leads to them chasing their losses. You see it all the time, people post saying phew just managed to get back in the green today, pros dont talk like that, they measure there success over a large sample. Losers happen all the time, its how you react to it thats the biggest difference. The practical process of putting on a trade has no barrier to entry you dont need to be a pro to put one on. The difference is the mindset like you say. Its not the practical side but the theory that holds new traders back. The early stages is always hard because you dont have a proven strategy, but a pro does, and thats not from him being better or smarter its just more time in the markets to know he will profit over a set amount of games. Thats why i do the pre-inplay-price model because when i enter a trade i always have the notion that i can defend it, explain exactly why i traded that game. Because we will lose trades its football, but its about limiting risk, going into a trade without confidence is just a red flag in this regard. Iv only just started to as @James-Woodroffe said clear the haze. Its not about money or how much someone makes, there are plenty of good traders with small banks, get the mindset right and your winning at this game.
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@matt-wood it’s definitely not just you mate. It definitely is a different mindset trading. It does take time and sometimes we have strange days we can’t quite pinpoint but eventually the haze clears and we learn from what we did. I hope that made sense
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@ryan-carruthers Can't exactly put my finger on what was making me feel like I was losing control. Guess it was mostly the sensation of 2nd guessing my trades once I had put them on and therefore feeling a pressure to just cash out right away rather than letting the trade run to its planned point of exit.
I think this might be a mental (no I can't spell 'psychol...
) thing for me to work on. Think I may have lost confidence yesterday although cannot say why. Feel fine about it all today though. 
Helps having this place now as other people question things they do and I can see its not just me lol. Also a big big plus for me is I can get advice from far more experienced people on here -
Finally, if either of these 2 home teams find themselves 0-2 down I will lay the opposition:
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Yesterday was poor on these but the results didn't match the inplay stats at all:
All 3 teams with something to play for and if they go behind and are not receiving a shoeing in the process I will lay the opposition. Balikesirspor is home lay, the other 2 away lays.
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Inplay winning team ELO ratings lays
@Martin-Futter I see you don't have the Roma game or Real Madrid. Real fighting for title and ages left in Serie A yet.
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@matthew-biggins said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@andrew-wooding said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@sam-maccuaig it’s what I struggle with.. kid in a sweet shop syndrome. I have a few strategies I’m following. Then I’ll see one of you guys say ‘this looks good etc’ and bang I’m tempted to do it in the knowledge that there is a thought out rationale. If it goes wrong I kick myself for not sticking to the 2/3 picks I had.. only 1 of which I might even get on if the conditions are right.
What I should be doing is following just those strategies through dvd improving them, thinking about them..I have/had that exact feeling. My way of dealing with it has just been to stay out of the forum as much as possible while I’m trading games. The knowledge and research is great in here and there’s some really really positive long-term strategies that people post. When I’m doing my pre-game stuff I’ll come and look in here to see if there’s anything I might want to take a look at, sometimes there is sometimes there isn’t.
Once the games start I shut the forum down and make my actions my sole focus for as long as I’m watching/keeping an eye on games. I might pop back on in between trades but ultimately, anything I’ve not had chance to pick out earlier in the day I avoid.
Sometimes joining a forum like this presents a new challenge for your psychology. There’s a lot going off but that doesn’t alter the fact that trading is ultimately down to how you perform as an individual. Pretty much everything on this site has value to us as traders but only if we stick to the successful mindset we set for ourselves. Pick the best bits and make them work for you personally.
I like this. It's what I did the other day and helped enormously, not necessarily with the whether trade won or lost as we're not magicians and we can't influence everything.
More with the way in which you are able to concentrate on what's important and not get sidetracked.
I know that when there's an opportunity to open a trade I sometimes think more about pposting that ensuring I get things right as quickly as possible and that shouldn't be the aim. It's why I like to post my potentials for the day early on. I should then shut the forum down and come back later.
The selections will be there along with what I'm looking for in case anyone wants to follow along.
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@matt-wood Nicely done matey
When you say they were slipping out of control how do you mean exactly?
Yes, was a strange one. I stuck to the plan though! Even after 10 years trading still sometimes those losing days happen have to re group and go again
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@matthew-biggins great post & great advice.
