The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@matthew-biggins said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Not even in the mood to look at how many pts lost on that City game. Hard to believe that every trade I entered was completely justified.
that city game was a good trade dont beat yourself up too much mate.
I got in on that as well Man City we’re battering them any other day they’d of scored 5.
I understand what @darri is saying but how Man City didn’t score I’ll never know
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@matthew-biggins said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Not even in the mood to look at how many pts lost on that City game. Hard to believe that every trade I entered was completely justified.
that city game was a good trade dont beat yourself up too much mate.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
This is going relly well so far. 15 selections, 4 of which have come back from 0-2 to 2-2. Another 6 have got a goal back thus not being a loss and almost certainly able to take small green on most.
The losers have been such small odds it's barely worth worrying about:
1.02
1.32
1.11
1.17
1.17
Which strategy is this mate? look very positive so far.
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League of Ireland will resume on the 31st July
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League has just started so being very careful with these, but will keep an eye on these today, team in bold to back if they go down against run of play or 0-0 and the stats are hot for in play.
I always check the pitch zones & usually watch if I can the game live.
06/07/20 18:00 Sweden Allsvenskan Normal Norrkoping v Goteborg 1 6 1771 1601 170 33 32
06/07/20 18:00 Sweden Allsvenskan Normal Djurgarden v Helsingborg 11 16 1708 1447 261 39 32 -
@matthew-biggins Jump in the private coaching as well bud, Martin and I be happy to help.
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@darri
Plenty of red flags in this one, easily avoided. -
@matthew-biggins upto you if you agree or not mate. A more attacking sub would have been one of the silvas or fernandinho off for de bruyne. Nope he brought mahrez and sterling both off. Also no aguero. Sterling, mahrez and aguero contribute 47% of man city goals thats not including all their assists too. Argue all you want stats dont lie. add in the dead rubber game and makes it a hard sell to get in on.
Dont let the fact its the english prem cloud your judgement, when you do you end up going off hunches rather than looking to see if its value.
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Finally, I'm going to be keeping an eye on Raufoss, Sogndal games for a 2nd half opportunity. If the moon aligns perfectly with the stars and Jupiter is in Saturn.......plus the line up and inplay stats show positive things I'll make my move around the 65th minute onwards.
Price dependent too of course.
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This is going relly well so far. 15 selections, 4 of which have come back from 0-2 to 2-2. Another 6 have got a goal back thus not being a loss and almost certainly able to take small green on most.
The losers have been such small odds it's barely worth worrying about:
1.02
1.32
1.11
1.17
1.17 -
@darri I disagree. Whilst I understand the importance of teams having something to play for, I think it’s taken far too literally sometimes. Anyone watching that game today would have said City would get back into it and I think 9 times out of 10 they would have. It was only some excellent goalkeeping and heroic defending that kept them out.
They may have taken Sterling off but they brought KDB on. It’s hardly weakening the team is it? The flow of the game remained one way traffic. If City looked in anyway like they were taking the foot off the gas I would agree that the trade would be better left alone but they weren’t.
Compare them to Salzburg earlier, the league already sewn up, not nearly as relentless as City and they eased to a 3-0 victory in the end.
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It's going to be a shock to the system when there's nothing on again. Make hay I guess:
All teams have something to play for or at least they shouldn't have given up yet. I've set my phone to give me notifications of lineups from now on as well which you can do easily on sofascore.
Providing half the teams goals aren't missing and the inplay stats aren't dreadful I will lay winning weaker team as per normal.
If lineup isn't good and they go behind I'll monitor inplay stats to see if they are looking like being able to get back into it but I won't go in feet first.
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@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Finished for the week on a loss with napoli screaming the ball over the open net for my fhg. 14% up for the week, not too bad.
Not too bad at all mate well done.
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Finished for the week on a loss with napoli screaming the ball over the open net for my fhg. 14% up for the week, not too bad.
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Will do a LCS around 70 if still 0-0 in Napoli v Roma game if 0-0 will consider if 1-0 or 0-1 and 2nd half goal comes early as both sides love a late goal. That will be it for the day. Been out with the family all day so no trading since the Burnley match.
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@Gary-Brown @Matthew-Biggins man city game neither had a cause to go and win, this would have been one to be seriously cautious with. City brought off sterling and mahrez if pep really wanted city to comeback and win he definitely would have kept them on and replaced one of the silvas instead. Easy to say this after a loss, but we learn better after losses What makes a good trade is when everything fits in place, pre-inplay-price.
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Learnt a lot today. Went for a 2nd half goal in off even though they were missing their main goal scorer. Stupid error which I won't be repeating. Finally found out they sold him to Rosenberg ffs haha!!
At the time Kasimpasa trade looked good and had VAR not intervened it could so easily have won. Kasimpasa were still going for it even with 10. That said, the line it went on the more it was about don't lose for them so I can see from watching why people stay away from reds. I think from now on I will avoid reds but if it happens when I'm already in I'll leave it to run.
Semi successful day:
Started off with a planned trade in Austria I couldn't execute. Good as it won even if a little frustrating.
Then Sangju Sangmu. Great stats and loads of goal mouth action. Penalty and a win.
Laid Falkenergs at 0-1. Ended 1-1.
Then came the two stupid trades of Odd and Kasimpasa.
Not to be beaten I researched the last potential thoroughly and went for a goal in Amatetten. Penalty and a win.
Excuse the after timing but it's wrapped up in a couple of losses and lessons learned.
Unless Porto fall behind that will be it for the the day.
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@gary-brown not really. If anything I was probably guilty of over-trading rather than over-staking. Just one City goal would have given me a point profit.
Went in for the o1.5 goals late on after backing City at evens in the first half. Layed Southampton at 1.3 late on meaning the opening trade would have been a scratch and I'd have got a point profit on the overs market.
Based on what I was watching I felt I was in a favourable position. Even a Southampton goal wouldn't have been the end of the world in the end.
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@matthew-biggins said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Not even in the mood to look at how many pts lost on that City game. Hard to believe that every trade I entered was completely justified.
dam make sure you have a chat to Martin Matthew.
Did you fall into the trap of over staking to try and win back some earlier loses? -
@johannes-van-leeuwen-
Hi Johannes I was looking for a late second half goal in the Manchester City game.I entered the over 1.5 goal market at odds of 1.51 at around 60-65mins so if I win I would win 50% of my stake. So I would win £5 from a £10 bet.
I don't like placing trades on odds lower than 1.50
