The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward @James-Woodroffe I am only just starting out and use very small stakes but agree 100% with both of you. Plus like you both said the profits WILL come in time if you master things. Here is a little shot from a spreadsheet I did for myself assuming min stakes and a year 1 daily profit of just 80p (average). Then scale it from there, the results are quite incredible.
Sorry should have added to that it assumes 100% reinvestment of profit too.
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@alan-steward @James-Woodroffe I am only just starting out and use very small stakes but agree 100% with both of you. Plus like you both said the profits WILL come in time if you master things. Here is a little shot from a spreadsheet I did for myself assuming min stakes and a year 1 daily profit of just 80p (average). Then scale it from there, the results are quite incredible.
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@james-woodroffe And whilst not everybody will buy into that process, it's my opinion and that's how I've grown my trading over the past couple of years... Keep up your excellent growth as well, you look to be doing really well of late... You deserve it!
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@james-woodroffe Totally agree with your words re not worrying about how much money your trading with... I totally agree with this concept and will be adding it my blog.
Put it this way if you kept your stakes low until you fully mastered trading how comfortable would you feel raising your stakes from £2 to £5 to £20 to £50 to £100 to £250 etc. if you could make profit month in month out... I know how comfortable I'd feel... That's how I've done things!
Thanks mate, yeah I agree wholeheartedly. It takes a while and probably a little while to perhaps realise that you are on the right track and when you do realise the confidence to up the stakes is a natural progression.
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@james-woodroffe Totally agree with your words re not worrying about how much money your trading with... I totally agree with this concept and will be adding it my blog.
Put it this way if you kept your stakes low until you fully mastered trading how comfortable would you feel raising your stakes from £2 to £5 to £20 to £50 to £100 to £250 etc. if you could make profit month in month out... I know how comfortable I'd feel... That's how I've done things!
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Good morning all, was keeping myself a bit distant over the weekend as I was busy preparing myself for my final step to full time trading... Had an excellent past few days with my correct score trading and made almost 3pts green from just 4 games (although I don't lose out on many they don't always go that well lol).
What I'm now doing is only looking to trade the bigger games where I know I can get away with using £250/500 a point... My correct score trades rarely ever exceed 1pt liability (although last nights 3 goal dutch @ Napoli did go to 1.5pts red @ 1-1 but was good value in my mind).
I will try to get my blog sorted this month asap but have just focused on setting up a VPS service which will allow me to continue my low value bot trades which profit month in month out without having to leave my computer running all day (burning out in the summer months lol)
Catch you all later... Hopefully with good team news I will be on a 3 goal correct score trade at Spurs tonight.
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@stuart-capstick great post mate and congratulations on 4 solid months profit that’s brilliant. Also I couldn’t agree more with everything you said especially in relation to the newer traders. The daily email is a brilliant way for new guys to start to slowly build their bank and understand the difference between trading and gambling. Keith’s idea of the dirty bank is also a good one. I couldn’t agree more with the benefit of hindsight what we could have told ourselves 12 months ago. One thing I would add for all newbie traders is this. How much money you make when you start is irrelevant. This is not a get rich quick way to make an income. Don’t be embarrassed if you’re constantly making 75p cause you’re starting with a small bank. If you’re constantly making 75p you’re doing something right and as a result you’re bank will grow. After a few months not only will your bank have improved you might even be able to justify adding a bit because you’re on the right track.
Sticking to 1 or 2 strategies at the most and understanding why you’re entering and justifying the trade is crucial. You see blokes sometimes mock themselves with a daily profit of £2. If you’ve done 3 trades all winners and entered at the correct time that’s bloody brilliant and should see a source of pride.
Again top post mate and here’s to the next 12 months. -
@alan-steward
Thanks for this, Alan. I know how hard and successfully you have worked at trading.
As I said, I don't intend going full time any time soon, if ever. I would have to reach the point where I'm so confident/competent that trading becomes routine, boring almost. Nowhere near that yet.
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@Stuart-Capstick, Four months of profit... Great work, you're possibly closer than you think re having the ability to to trade full time.
And just because you could make it trading full time still doesn't mean you should give up your day job to do so... Wait until your fully comfortable
Slowly but surely raise your stakes and you will know when the time is right... Keep up the great work!
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@john-g valid point, i have actually been posting during games, city game i was out getting a takeaway pint so didnt get a chance to see it. Take a look back iv been trying to say it when the proposed trades are posted mate. @Martin-Futter is right treat it as a bigger picture, but remember to add in all the factors, btc have even done a detailed guide and videos series on them for you to check, motivation being one of them. PRE-INPLAY-PRICE always stand by that for 2nd half trading. If i think i can help someone i will post it.
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Coming up to about a year as a member of BTC and this will be the fourth consecutive month in profit. Still quite early days, but I'm in this for the long haul.
Advice I'd give myself (and probably would have ignored at the time) one year ago:
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Just use Ryan and Martin's systems with small stakes at the start.
I never did this because I'm a smartarse who always thinks he knows best. However, they are fantastic bank-builders. Just look at the tracking sheets. Following those also allows you to develop an understanding of how the markets move. -
At the same time, develop your own systems. Paper trade them only. If you can, back test them. The more games, the better. This is why I recommend following Ryan and Martin (Keith, Frode, Darri and Richard's systems also) at the start.
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As many have said, but Darri said it most emphatically: you should aim to have your own, go-to system/strategy. Have as many others as you wish, but have one that you developed and tested yourself- something of which you are confident of the long term profitability and one that you understand will have downturns.
Chances are that system will throw up a tonne of potential games at the weekend. You can't and shouldn't trade them all (well, you could, but who wants to live to trade?). Adjust/modify the systems, look for any stat that may optimise your system (e.g. for SHG look at HT scores, look at when goals were scored and the chances of later goals etc) -
Treat this as a small business. I, at present, have no intentions of trading full time..yet..But you never know. At the moment, this is a bit of a hobby, but I take it seriously. I've worked out maximum drawdowns, tested things over 8 years of data, learned some VBA researched top scorers of teams in the Czech 2nd division etc
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If you like a little bit of risk, have, as Keith once said, a "bad" bank. This is a bank for your riskier trades or straight punts. Use smarkets or bet365. Saves your trading bank.
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Understand your triggers. For most people, I think the main one is a loss, which they seek to correct on another trade. This inevitably means your judgement isn't as sharp...You see where I'm going?
The best solution to this is 3). Know your system and its drawdowns. If you know that, then you know you will suffer losing runs but still be profitable long term. -
When Martin, Ryan,Keith, Frode and Alan Steward post something, read it avidly. These guys know what they are talking about. You may not like what they say, but it is invariably useful and a free education.
Thanks to everyone who as ever posted on here. I got into this because I wanted to learn something. I think I've learned something from everyone here.
Fantastic! What trades do you make personally? Strategieswise?
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@darri I think why some people argue back with you is you popped up straight after the event and tell people what they did wrong. (not for the first time). Yet you do not mention once to be careful during the City game. So comes off as a bit of an after-timer in that respect. I think I would find that a bit annoying straight after a loss!
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From what I have read there are a lot of people focusing on one or two games when the reality is you have to think bigger picture.
Evaluate your trades individually for sure but don't get upset by a couple of unexpected or unfortunate results.
In the bigger picture they carry a lot less weight than you may feel they do when they happen.
As hard as it may feel you have to take emotion out of trading.
One easy way to do that is to test your strategy until you feel fully confident it is profitable before trading, I find that in that situation it is a lot easier to accept a 'bad beat' as you believe in the process over the long term.
On the game itself here was my view:
I did avoid Man City from my filters as they have nothing to play for but I was very tempted when the stats in-play were showing their dominance but for me the goal odds were never good enough value.
From what I remember it took into the 80s before Over 1.5 got above 2.0. Had the odds been evens at 75 I may have got involved as they did look motivated enough but for me personally the odds weren't good enough. So it was fortunate the odds were short the whole time for me really.
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@stuart-capstick this is awesome to hear mate! well on your way now, keep it up
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@Chris-Osborne @John-Hurst i was only advising to be cautious with these types of games, actually if you look over the forum more and more beginner traders are doing this same mistake. Motivation is a key factor. Most pros use motivation as a factor so like i say dont treat it as gospel, but it crazy not to consider it, iv already stated why i wouldnt have traded the city game not going in circles, you either understand to avoid or not, like iv said sometimes the fact its a prem game and we then trust our opinion rather than hard facts/stats.
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Coming up to about a year as a member of BTC and this will be the fourth consecutive month in profit. Still quite early days, but I'm in this for the long haul.
That's fantastic well done!
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Coming up to about a year as a member of BTC and this will be the fourth consecutive month in profit. Still quite early days, but I'm in this for the long haul.
Advice I'd give myself (and probably would have ignored at the time) one year ago:
-
Just use Ryan and Martin's systems with small stakes at the start.
I never did this because I'm a smartarse who always thinks he knows best. However, they are fantastic bank-builders. Just look at the tracking sheets. Following those also allows you to develop an understanding of how the markets move. -
At the same time, develop your own systems. Paper trade them only. If you can, back test them. The more games, the better. This is why I recommend following Ryan and Martin (Keith, Frode, Darri and Richard's systems also) at the start.
-
As many have said, but Darri said it most emphatically: you should aim to have your own, go-to system/strategy. Have as many others as you wish, but have one that you developed and tested yourself- something of which you are confident of the long term profitability and one that you understand will have downturns.
Chances are that system will throw up a tonne of potential games at the weekend. You can't and shouldn't trade them all (well, you could, but who wants to live to trade?). Adjust/modify the systems, look for any stat that may optimise your system (e.g. for SHG look at HT scores, look at when goals were scored and the chances of later goals etc) -
Treat this as a small business. I, at present, have no intentions of trading full time..yet..But you never know. At the moment, this is a bit of a hobby, but I take it seriously. I've worked out maximum drawdowns, tested things over 8 years of data, learned some VBA researched top scorers of teams in the Czech 2nd division etc
-
If you like a little bit of risk, have, as Keith once said, a "bad" bank. This is a bank for your riskier trades or straight punts. Use smarkets or bet365. Saves your trading bank.
-
Understand your triggers. For most people, I think the main one is a loss, which they seek to correct on another trade. This inevitably means your judgement isn't as sharp...You see where I'm going?
The best solution to this is 3). Know your system and its drawdowns. If you know that, then you know you will suffer losing runs but still be profitable long term. -
When Martin, Ryan, Darri, Keith, Frode and Alan Steward post something, read it avidly. These guys know what they are talking about. You may not like what they say, but it is invariably useful and a free education.
Thanks to everyone who as ever posted on here. I got into this because I wanted to learn something. I think I've learned something from everyone here.
I know for me, a trigger in the past has been when I miss a good trade. I've often thought, well if I put double on this next one I'll be back where I want to be for the day. Bad move!!!
It's hard to imagine and remember just how bad my discipline used to be. I still have brain farts which undoubtedly hold me back but they are far less now.
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
This is going relly well so far. 15 selections, 4 of which have come back from 0-2 to 2-2. Another 6 have got a goal back thus not being a loss and almost certainly able to take small green on most.
The losers have been such small odds it's barely worth worrying about:
1.02
1.32
1.11
1.17
1.17
Which strategy is this mate? look very positive so far.
Just an idea I had for a filter a while back. Doesn't look at away stats at all. By the time a team has gone 0-2 up they've pretty much done all the damage that can be done and there's mostlyonly upsides. 0-3 is virtually no loss at all. 1-2 is small gain and 2-2 become around 200-300% of your original liability.
I'm only interested in average goals scored by home time being 1.8 (maybe 1.9) or over and total goals 18 or over (pretty much same criteria as first when you think about it.
If the team scores a boat load at home it's worth backing them to score at least once I think.
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Coming up to about a year as a member of BTC and this will be the fourth consecutive month in profit. Still quite early days, but I'm in this for the long haul.
Advice I'd give myself (and probably would have ignored at the time) one year ago:
-
Just use Ryan and Martin's systems with small stakes at the start.
I never did this because I'm a smartarse who always thinks he knows best. However, they are fantastic bank-builders. Just look at the tracking sheets. Following those also allows you to develop an understanding of how the markets move. -
At the same time, develop your own systems. Paper trade them only. If you can, back test them. The more games, the better. This is why I recommend following Ryan and Martin (Keith, Frode, Darri and Richard's systems also) at the start.
-
As many have said, but Darri said it most emphatically: you should aim to have your own, go-to system/strategy. Have as many others as you wish, but have one that you developed and tested yourself- something of which you are confident of the long term profitability and one that you understand will have downturns.
Chances are that system will throw up a tonne of potential games at the weekend. You can't and shouldn't trade them all (well, you could, but who wants to live to trade?). Adjust/modify the systems, look for any stat that may optimise your system (e.g. for SHG look at HT scores, look at when goals were scored and the chances of later goals etc) -
Treat this as a small business. I, at present, have no intentions of trading full time..yet..But you never know. At the moment, this is a bit of a hobby, but I take it seriously. I've worked out maximum drawdowns, tested things over 8 years of data, learned some VBA researched top scorers of teams in the Czech 2nd division etc
-
If you like a little bit of risk, have, as Keith once said, a "bad" bank. This is a bank for your riskier trades or straight punts. Use smarkets or bet365. Saves your trading bank.
-
Understand your triggers. For most people, I think the main one is a loss, which they seek to correct on another trade. This inevitably means your judgement isn't as sharp...You see where I'm going?
The best solution to this is 3). Know your system and its drawdowns. If you know that, then you know you will suffer losing runs but still be profitable long term. -
When Martin, Ryan, Darri, Keith, Frode and Alan Steward post something, read it avidly. These guys know what they are talking about. You may not like what they say, but it is invariably useful and a free education.
Thanks to everyone who as ever posted on here. I got into this because I wanted to learn something. I think I've learned something from everyone here.
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@chris-osborne a point could be made that the big teams will always want to win/get level. They have superior quality players and that added ego/pride boost. I understand the point made 'nothing to play for' but judging by the actual game and their attitude it seemed there was plenty to play for. DeBruyne coming on added even more attacking threat (and it showed pep wanted to get into the game) or he would have rested him.
