The BTC Football Trading Thread

Martin

@daniel-cooper said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Opinions... red card comes in. On goal markets, is this an instant trade out for you?

https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials

Red Cards:

Although not an in-play statistic as such a special mention must be made for red cards.

A red card has a huge effect on a game and pretty much eliminates our previous data as the previous data was recorded when eleven players were playing on each team.

We exit games that have a red card there and then, except for one instance - when we are trading the match odds markets and the team we have opposed have gone down to ten men.

In this scenario it is an advantage for our trade, so we can probably take a profit or expect our team will now have more chances to score a goal.

Matt Wood

@eamonn-hogan Have to take emotion out of it completely. Ruthless objectivity!

Eamonn Hogan

Poor day from me today so far, down a big 10 points. Lost 2 points on the Newcastle game with the goals coming so close together. Also using the ratings I backed Inter milan for 4 points and as I was watching my team Liverpool got distracted and didnt take my green. Also thought Liverpool would come out and score early I backed them -2 with a view to green after the early goal but it didnt come.
Bad weekend but not to worry, things still going in right direction. I just need to change a few things, i.e think my heart was ruling my head with the Liverpool trade and also not trading in a game where I am not 100% concentrating.

? Offline

@richard-latimer that was good because the email matches is to bad today no goals or the goals to early

James Woodroffe

@daniel-cooper said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Opinions... red card comes in. On goal markets, is this an instant trade out for you?

Pretty much mate.

Matt Wood

@richard-latimer I thought about it then got panicked and took full CO lol

Richard Latimer

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Stromgodset 1-2

I've done partial cash to the amount of guaranteeing what my initial liability was in green. I figure if I can get evens and a decent s/r then any additional is a bonus.

Matt Wood

Stromgodset 1-2

Matt Wood

@richard-latimer agreed and VAR is not helping

Richard Latimer

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer To be honest I went in on that after the red and still got the goal as from watching the game it still seemed fairly open

Kasimpasa still trying to win it as far as I can see.

Matt Wood

Damn it!

Matt Wood

@richard-latimer To be honest I went in on that after the red and still got the goal as from watching the game it still seemed fairly open

Richard Latimer

Bloody VAR

Richard Latimer

@daniel-cooper said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Opinions... red card comes in. On goal markets, is this an instant trade out for you?

Are you looking at the Kasimpasa match?

Daniel Cooper

Opinions... red card comes in. On goal markets, is this an instant trade out for you?

james everard

@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@gary-brown just nailed it on the head, pros/full time traders use pre match research, inplay stats and then base both of those and see if the price on offer is value. I think beginners try to get involved in too much early doors. The pros arent trading loads of strategies, i only trade LTD/LCS, i have 5 games to look at today. Its all about quality not quantity. Those trading 20-30 games at weekends are battling the markets, staring at their screen and just trying to make green. Just from my experience i used to scattergun and got burned now im stubborn about games. The problem with systems is you then trade every game as part of the system instead of treating every game within it on its merit. Thats why iv suggested using team lineups and inplay stats to base your trades off. Every game is different, do this and youll avoid the silly ones. It works for me and sees to work for most other full time traders iv seen or spoke to.

Been trying all weekend on just the lay the dog strategy. I have deleted all other filters apart from ltd/lcs. But ive just been concentrating on the lay the underdog though, from the 21matches on my list for today ,13 matches that have been played/playing so far with only 1 match i have traded.
I am being ultra cautious in my trading looking for the pre match criteria , then look for starting lines up , if these two criteria are met if the underdog takes the lead and the odds are below 3.00 i may enter if inplay stats show the underdog is not on top. I delete off my list any matches which the favourite has nothing to play for.

Richard Latimer

Real cheap lay on Kristiansund just gone 0-2 up. Game looks way more even than that.

Matt Wood

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@daniel-cooper once you reach a profit level on betfair they start to charge you, they take a commission right now at any level but once you start making a decent income from it they start enforcing their own version of tax, called the betfair premium charge. As long as your priority is growing the bank rather than withdrawing then it will hurt less. By the time you hit the top tier as long as you have kept growing your bank you should be fine.

wow I didnt know this, is it displayed on BF anywhere?

Found it. Thanks for the heads up Darri Although I am probably some way off that yet

liam willis

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@matt-wood totally agree mate and iv lost countless banks before i got here too. thing is and martins just done a post about it the process to narrowing is far simpler than people think. FOMO is the only reason newer traders are struggling. Fear of missing a game on the system, seeing pros post trades on here or seeing others make profit. Sometimes its good on trading days especially busy ones to silence the noise and focus on your own stuff. Log off for a bit and watch the markets rather than posts on here. Once your comfortable with your approach then FOMO wont be an issue. The pros arent following every trade put on here, they have their own trading plans. Totally agree with @Martin-Futter exactly the same, for my late goals ill write down when the 2nd half will KO and then log into betfair at that time to watch the game. Would be hard to do that if i had a list of 20 games. Your whole life cant revolved around sitting at a screen waiting for the next trade. Prep, Research, Analyse inplay and Price the keys to trading.

This is why newbies should listen to the experienced people here. I'm not sure I would agree totally that FOMO is the 'only' reason newer traders struggle but it certainly is a huge hurdle that needs to be defeated.
I can say as a newbie that turning this off on a busy trading day and sticking to your own plan is the right thing to do. My red days have always been a Saturday, with last sat being an exception, and I am sure that is down to the 'noise' of everything going on and getting distracted. Most other days I am green for the day, even if it is small green. This is something I need to work on and have flagged Sat as a danger day for me personally so I may even take the action of NO trades on a sat and just observe for a while until I get a handle on it.

just had a read through, and to put my bit in, when i first joined btc i was jumping on everyones posts on the forum and while i was profitable in the beginning it all started to go wrong. i took a step back and realised that my trading plan was profitable but it was the jumping on to everyones trades in the forum that was giving me the red days, thats not to say that the traders themselves were losing money, but if you are getting on 6 or 7 different traders posts then inevitably you will get on their losers and not gain from everything else on their plan, if that makes sense. i have btc on my laptop constantly but now i mute it and only look at it when ive done my own trades AND STICK TO MY OWN PLAN. occasionally i will have a look at a trade thats posted if its one i fancy i go and research it myself then decide if i want to get on or not 90% is not tbh. another thing i am doing is my own 3% challenge you will not believe how this helps with discipline for example if you make your 3% one day it makes you cautious not to lose it. the forum is great and i love it but treat it with caution. hope that helps

Daniel Cooper

Liverpool game is a bit dead! Aston can't want it that badly!