The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@john-hurst Now that's a point, I used to have a strategy that was to lay teams who shouldn't go up 1, I bet with a bit of ELO on there it would make it stronger.
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@Richard-Latimer Probs a daft question but have you ever looked at your ELO underdog lays and thought about backing the fave from the start? If you expect them to come back into the game 0-1 down then surely there is value in backing at the beginning judging by the strike rate? or am i way off?
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@james-woodroffe No worries, thank you for being a cracking member of the group
For me, never from kick off.
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My Ratings ones for today....
If 0-0 @ HT I look to back the bold team if the stats are in favour of the bold team. I will also back the bold team if they go 1 down against the run of play.
Remember to check the stats in play to make sure that the players are playing who get the assist and goals
05/07/20 11:00 South Korea K League 1 Normal Sangju Sangmu v Jeonbuk
05/07/20 13:00 Denmark Superliga Normal Nordsjaelland v Midtjylland
05/07/20 13:30 Sweden Allsvenskan Normal Elfsborg v Malmo FF
05/07/20 13:30 Sweden Allsvenskan Normal AIK v Falkenbergs
05/07/20 16:15 Italy Serie A Normal Inter v Bologna
05/07/20 19:00 England Premier League Normal Southampton v Manchester City -
@sam-maccuaig said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin-futter thanks Martin, will watch in play and see if they are coming out strong or just kicking their heels
yep finding watching more important than ever at the moment!
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@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Question about laying the dog
we only laying when the favorite goes one goal behind?
or also from KO?Thks
Only when a goal down.
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@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 This is on @Richard-Latimer filter so will tag him and he can help you
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@james-woodroffe No worries, thank you for being a cracking member of the group
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Question about laying the dog
we only laying when the favorite goes one goal behind?
or also from KO?Thks
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@martin-futter thanks Martin, will watch in play and see if they are coming out strong or just kicking their heels
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@james-everard personally i will check top scorers, assists and key players for the favourite because thats the way i trade ltd/lcs. Just as im entering my trade i check to make sure they are all playing. This can all be done with flashscores. Click on a game, head over to standings, then top scorers, then click on the team tab, then select the team your after and it will show top scorers and assists.
Ill do a quick video: https://www.loom.com/share/da5b9119560c4894a0f66c870bb48878
If you need lineups from the start flashscores provide that 15 mins before KO generally but twitter and club homepages will share the lineups in advance
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@sam-maccuaig said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Just trading my ELO backs today, paper trading a few other things.
Backs are;
AIK
Liverpool
PortoHave a green day everyone
Should win 4-0 but I’d be weary of Liverpool, they really don’t have anything to play for and Villa are desperate to stay up.
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@richard-latimer like i said im not saying your strategy doesnt work or isnt doing well right now, it is, only pointing out what me and others have said in the past that could make it even better. The whole premise of your strategy is a weaker team scores first then there is a high chance of a strong team coming back. But if that strong team is missing 71% of the teams goals contribution for the season surely that stronger team is weaker. Bate we can agree to disagree, team form, red card and lack of inplay in my eyes should have made that a no trade, fair enough later in game it looked good, but at the time a red card and 0 shots on target. Problem with trading is if you cant watch the game or see the stats it doesnt take prisoners, but i do get it people have families and work, you will miss having an edge with it, but at very least team news is vital only takes 1 minute to check.
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Just trading my ELO backs today, paper trading a few other things.
Backs are;
AIK
Liverpool
PortoHave a green day everyone
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This post is deleted!
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ELO Lays:
I've gone throuugh each fixture looking for injurues and suspensions and ensuring that the stronger team has something to play for in each match.
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I linked to this website earlier but it really does look good. Loads of news and injury/suspension updates:
https://injuriesandsuspensions.com/all-news/
@Darri I promise you, not everything falls on deaf ears. This the 2nd (should be 3rd) day I'm scanning for this info.
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer why the reluctance to use inplay stats and team news? Couple of games people have tried to give word of caution, bate, roma and lazio. Dont think anyone is saying its not a profitbale system, they are only trying to help make it better. @Stuart-Capstick and @Gary-Brown both been spot on about pre match form and then team news. Bate game was more team form, inplay at the time of dog scoring and red card.
Anyone not using team news look at the lazio game for example. This is true for every strategy. lazio have scored 66 goals this season. immobile has contributed 56% of those goals!! Half the team goals have come from him or by him. Add in caicedo, they both have contributed 71% of all lazio goals! They have huge influence on the team and why the game is popping up on your filters in the first place.
Believe it or not, I went looking for team news yesterday. Today.....I'll be honest. I forgot.
As for inplay stats I am and I do.....more so now since recent discussions. BUT.....I'm not looking for total dominance. I believe motivation and the psychology behind that is a large part of why this works so well.
A big team falls behind and many times they up their level in an instant. I've seen it dozens of times. If the play is fairly even I will enter the trade. In the past I have entered when inplay stats suggested they were getting a shoeing and that's almost certainly not wise. But most of the time if they were that dominant they wouldn't be behind in the first place (yes I know goals go against the run of play). I don't have time to watch the inplay stats like a hawk following the goal and mores the point a) I wouldn't trust my subjective opinion to decide when to enter if I could. b) When I've seen so many of these go the right way, to miss out on endless equalisers while I was waiting would do my head in.
Like I already said BATE was the VERY FIRST loser in over 50 games between odds of 4.0 - 9.2.
This is a years worth of data. There's no way every single one of those games had a heavily dominant team when at the helm when they fell behind.
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@james-woodroffe Well done James! As someone who became a BTC member only 3 or 4 hours ago, this is really motivating to read!!!
Looking forward to chatting with you all! Check out my most recent thread tagged New Member (not sure where you'll find it as still getting used to this forum layout) for a little about me!
Dan
