The BTC Football Trading Thread

Richard Latimer

@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I need to develop bigger cojones for that type of trade

There's so much upside. I see odds to lay were 1.5.

Martin

@richard-latimer don’t see how you can’t at those odds

Matt Wood

I need to develop bigger cojones for that type of trade

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those set backs at the weekend have definitely affected my confidence. crap

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i was to late haha

Richard Latimer

@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Viborg! What a quick and nice profit that was

Gonna collect a bit more info and hopefully start doing these haha

Richard Latimer

@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer viborg 2-3

At the moment I'm only laying if they concede first goal But I know Martin is doing these.

Martin

Viborg! What a quick and nice profit that was

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missed the nykobing lay

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@richard-latimer viborg 2-3

Richard Latimer

Did you lay @Martin-Futter? I sure did.

If anything I'm even more confident at those odds.

Checked the main threats were on the pitch pre game.

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Helsingborgs must be in a state of shock, just scored there 1st goal of the season in there 6th game

Martin

@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@matt-wood somebody lay roskilde whit this high odds?

the book says yes but it's a personal decision, if uncomfortable I defo recommend leaving those odds as you will be mad if it loses

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was thinking of backing home fav but a little too early for me.

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@matt-wood ok only backed over 2.5 in turkey came in

Matt Wood

@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 no I think @Gary-Brown was thinking about a back of the home fav

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@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

The two main scorers for Vejle are on the pitch

just missed ot Matt. Was going to go in around 15mins as I could see them starting to dominate in terms of possession in the opponents half.

Daniel Cooper

@matt-wood I did! Lay'd the underdog for a small stakes profit!

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@matt-wood somebody lay roskilde whit this high odds?

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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Coming up to about a year as a member of BTC and this will be the fourth consecutive month in profit. Still quite early days, but I'm in this for the long haul.

Advice I'd give myself (and probably would have ignored at the time) one year ago:

Just use Ryan and Martin's systems with small stakes at the start.
I never did this because I'm a smartarse who always thinks he knows best. However, they are fantastic bank-builders. Just look at the tracking sheets. Following those also allows you to develop an understanding of how the markets move.

At the same time, develop your own systems. Paper trade them only. If you can, back test them. The more games, the better. This is why I recommend following Ryan and Martin (Keith, Frode, Darri and Richard's systems also) at the start.

As many have said, but Darri said it most emphatically: you should aim to have your own, go-to system/strategy. Have as many others as you wish, but have one that you developed and tested yourself- something of which you are confident of the long term profitability and one that you understand will have downturns.
Chances are that system will throw up a tonne of potential games at the weekend. You can't and shouldn't trade them all (well, you could, but who wants to live to trade?). Adjust/modify the systems, look for any stat that may optimise your system (e.g. for SHG look at HT scores, look at when goals were scored and the chances of later goals etc)

Treat this as a small business. I, at present, have no intentions of trading full time..yet..But you never know. At the moment, this is a bit of a hobby, but I take it seriously. I've worked out maximum drawdowns, tested things over 8 years of data, learned some VBA researched top scorers of teams in the Czech 2nd division etc

If you like a little bit of risk, have, as Keith once said, a "bad" bank. This is a bank for your riskier trades or straight punts. Use smarkets or bet365. Saves your trading bank.

Understand your triggers. For most people, I think the main one is a loss, which they seek to correct on another trade. This inevitably means your judgement isn't as sharp...You see where I'm going?
The best solution to this is 3). Know your system and its drawdowns. If you know that, then you know you will suffer losing runs but still be profitable long term.

When Martin, Ryan, Darri, Keith, Frode and Alan Steward post something, read it avidly. These guys know what they are talking about. You may not like what they say, but it is invariably useful and a free education.

Thanks to everyone who as ever posted on here. I got into this because I wanted to learn something. I think I've learned something from everyone here.

Thanks for posting this Stuart and well done