The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@Gary-Brown and @Stuart-Capstick you’re absolutely right. I thought this thru and it’s simple I don’t trade matches once they’ve had a Red and I can’t change my rules because then I’ll change others then soon enough I’m back at square one and all the inroads I’ve made become null and void.
@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@Gary-Brown and @Stuart-Capstick you’re absolutely right. I thought this thru and it’s simple I don’t trade matches once they’ve had a Red and I can’t change my rules because then I’ll change others then soon enough I’m back at square one and all the inroads I’ve made become null and void.
Just playing devil's advocate here but what happens if you've already lost over 50%? What about 60%? 75%? Surely there's a point where taking red is no longer worth it.
While the odds are still in my favour, even if they are less so, I won't personally take red. For me it's the same as waiting for one late goal to win when the match goes through a lull.
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its hard work tonight. Anyone else get that feeling so far?
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Going for late goal at Bournemouth at 1.75 on 83
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@gary-brown yea think I am going to leave it alone
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@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@gary-brown said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Kasimpassa just taken the lead?
are you watching it Alan? I just switched it on BT Sport
commentator said an influential player for our home favs has left the field. Not sure who it is.
think it was their top scorer
that means monitor the match then I guess. That is a key player top scorer off injured.
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@gary-brown No not watching mate, not a trade I do but noticed the score
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@gary-brown said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Kasimpassa just taken the lead?
are you watching it Alan? I just switched it on BT Sport
commentator said an influential player for our home favs has left the field. Not sure who it is.
think it was their top scorer
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Kasimpassa just taken the lead?
are you watching it Alan? I just switched it on BT Sport
commentator said an influential player for our home favs has left the field. Not sure who it is.
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Kasimpassa just taken the lead?
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i am not sure of the overs games 1.5 really a good strategy is because i am testing this system after 30 min and 70 min cash out it bring not so much i think
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@Gary-Brown and @Stuart-Capstick you’re absolutely right. I thought this thru and it’s simple I don’t trade matches once they’ve had a Red and I can’t change my rules because then I’ll change others then soon enough I’m back at square one and all the inroads I’ve made become null and void.
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mad result in maribor game, even for a crap league thats still mad when you consider what they are playing for.
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With not getting home from work until 6pm i have missed like Richard the Rio Ave match. Left on my matches to lay the dog for this evening are as follows
18.00pm English Prem - Bournemouth vs Spurs ( Lay home side)
19.00pm Turkey Super League- Besiktas vs Kasimpasa ( lay away)
19.15pm Portugal Primera - Tondela vs Fc Porto ( lay home)
19.30pm Spain La liga 2- Real Vallecano vs Numancia ( lay away)
21.30pm Portugal Primera - Famalicao vs Benfica (lay home side)The Spurs match , spurs have been dire so far so will only trade if they were losing and look like they are dominating.
The Real Vallecano match the ratings were not quite 100 difference i think about 85 but the home comeback was 75 so included on my short list -
@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I think you've nailed this one, James. If you have a ready rule (whether it be red=out or stay in if both teams have something to play for) and you stick to it, you'll trade far better in future games this evening and tomorrow.
It's as Ryan pointed out yesterday with the Yoko Effect (much better name than the boring "Availability Bias"), thinking about past hypothetical trades negatively affects future trades.
totally agree with this. Your results will not be accurate if you don't and you swap and change the rules as you feel like it.
Also everything we post on here people may follow. We try and help each other out by posting trades. Thats why we post. So we got to be clear if we post trades which could affect other people we have set rules so the people in the forum can follow them.
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I think you've nailed this one, James. If you have a ready rule (whether it be red=out or stay in if both teams have something to play for) and you stick to it, you'll trade far better in future games this evening and tomorrow.
It's as Ryan pointed out yesterday with the Yoko Effect (much better name than the boring "Availability Bias"), thinking about past hypothetical trades negatively affects future trades.
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@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer food for thought mate and something else to consider going forward. If I stayed in that’s my target hit for the day if it stayed 1-1 I would have told myself to get out. Again I’m trying my best to delete bad habits and remain disciplined but I definitely hear what you’re saying.
Surely it depends how much you've already lost on it. Was getting on for quarter of my liability anyway. 2 of those and it's a half loss alrrady for 2 potential winning trades. Then the next one without a card loses. It loses and I still only lose another 3x what was already gone.
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@richard-latimer food for thought mate and something else to consider going forward. If I stayed in that’s my target hit for the day if it stayed 1-1 I would have told myself to get out. Again I’m trying my best to delete bad habits and remain disciplined but I definitely hear what you’re saying.
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@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
So the Rizespor match has seen a goal post Red card. This was a tricky call to make as to get out or stay in.
The temptation was there to stay in because both sides were desperate for the 3 points to avoid the drop.
However (as I type it’s 2-2) Red cards do mess with matches and maybe with the benefit of hindsight you stay in (bloody hell 3-2
) BUT getting out of Red Card matches is the right thing to do there’s no shortage of football being played so rather than beat yourself up about missed green if you got out of the trade and what could have been, the right thing I believe was to get out. Well at least that’s what I’m telling myself now. 
I've decided on a halfway house where reds are concerned. I won't get involved but if I'm in I'm staying in. Was already a small loss and I think the amount to which reds effect games is not categorically big enough to make taking red the best move in any situation that involves a red.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
What on earth is going on with Maribor!
I had prev removed Slovenia until Martin started posting. This is why. Think I'll stand by my removal. Also I don't lay still personally when stronger team took the lead. Not sure I would change that with away teams.
Was paper trading this to learn but think it is a league to avoid maybe
Estonia and Slovenian leagues are a no no for me now ( learnt again in the Estonian match yesterday, Maribor are missing their top scorer but the league can spring these odd results every now and again.
