The BTC Football Trading Thread
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It's funny - just realized that the Betfair TV stream is about 5 seconds ahead of the Bet365 stream on the Atalanta match.
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@matthew-biggins said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@finn-kristensen they should get the goal and fh seemed positive but i am a bit wary to ltd on that...be more content ltd at 1-1
I'd happily do it if the odds were better. Are you watching the game? Just looking at the stats on sofascore and it looks a very high chance of a goal. I don't care what happened in the reverse fixture. My decision is all on price.
My only other slight concern is that Atalanta have pretty much secured champions league and they aren't going to win the league either. Might give it a few minutes in the second half and knock it on the head for the night
There is still 8 games to go and they have a real chance of finishing 2nd which should be a carrot, my sticking point here is more the odds on another goal, don't think they will hit or be close enough to my 1.40 at 60mins limit
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@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 Fair to say I enjoyed the ending to that one.
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@martin-futter I WAS only in wolves game because i wait always untill 70th min but drawing games look much better i see know
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@matthew-biggins said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@finn-kristensen odds are always the sticking point with these games. The entire market is basically predicting the same thing. It's a no brainer really in terms of expecting a goal but theres very rarely any value in it, and this is without them having any shots on target as well.
spot on it's very rare I have traded Barca and Real games they just so rarely hit my odds parameters.
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Monitoring the Bologna match and the Torino match for a late goal from 70 mins.
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@finn-kristensen odds are always the sticking point with these games. The entire market is basically predicting the same thing. It's a no brainer really in terms of expecting a goal but theres very rarely any value in it, and this is without them having any shots on target as well.
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@eamonn-hogan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
how is it possible to have a front 3 of messi, griezman and suarez and not have a shot on target in 45 minutes?
Yeah, that's pretty insane.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@finn-kristensen they should get the goal and fh seemed positive but i am a bit wary to ltd on that...be more content ltd at 1-1
I'd happily do it if the odds were better. Are you watching the game? Just looking at the stats on sofascore and it looks a very high chance of a goal. I don't care what happened in the reverse fixture. My decision is all on price.
My only other slight concern is that Atalanta have pretty much secured champions league and they aren't going to win the league either. Might give it a few minutes in the second half and knock it on the head for the night
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@finn-kristensen they should get the goal and fh seemed positive but i am a bit wary to ltd on that...be more content ltd at 1-1
I'd happily do it if the odds were better. Are you watching the game? Just looking at the stats on sofascore and it looks a very high chance of a goal. I don't care what happened in the reverse fixture. My decision is all on price.
Not watching the game, no. The stats look decent, agreed. It started very slow but picked up later in the half. It will be a surprise if it ends without goals, especially the way Atalanta have been playing lately - but some teams are just cryptonite for others...
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how is it possible to have a front 3 of messi, griezman and suarez and not have a shot on target in 45 minutes?
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@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
not so much going on today..... most select games - EV
hope you took the 3/3 wins on the late goal when drawing filter
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Anyone following the Barcelona match? Espanyol been crap lately, so why aren't Barcelona up by a few goals already? They need the win, but odds are still too low to be of any interest.
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@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Im looking at it but might struggle to find value
Thinking the same mate again will see where we at around 70.
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@finn-kristensen they should get the goal and fh seemed positive but i am a bit wary to ltd on that...be more content ltd at 1-1
I'd happily do it if the odds were better. Are you watching the game? Just looking at the stats on sofascore and it looks a very high chance of a goal. I don't care what happened in the reverse fixture. My decision is all on price.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@finn-kristensen they should get the goal and fh seemed positive but i am a bit wary to ltd on that...be more content ltd at 1-1
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not so much going on today..... most select games - EV
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@matthew-biggins said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Atalanta game has potential but feel like I might be forcing it a bit with the odds as they are
A fair point. I had yet to check the odds. Will prob leave that one myself.
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 i would be wary- the reverse fixture finished 0-0
I noticed that too. Maybe they have a way of canceling each other out? Atalanta is usually a safe bet for goals.
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Atalanta game has potential but feel like I might be forcing it a bit with the odds as they are.
Or to put it another way, if I'd already got decent green I'd be calling it a night.
