The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward Thanks al, so far its going okay with LTD/LCS will track all trades now whether i trade them or not. Gives a bigger picture
Exactly!!!
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@john-hurst I keep all games on my spreadsheet if I've downloaded them from the filters as you can always go back to them and see if there's a way to improve on the results.
I have now switched to Split Stakes on my FHG as I could see I was missing quite a few early ones and that there was a decent number of late goals which now come in around evens... Yes the in-between ones return slightly less BUT overall it returns more ROI
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@alan-steward Thanks al, so far its going okay with LTD/LCS will track all trades now whether i trade them or not. Gives a bigger picture
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@john-hurst Combo mate... FHG, Split Stake o1.5 goals, Correct Scores & SH Goal (although my filter doesn't highlight many SH games, however they do win when I can get on them lol)
Best advice I can give you John is to pick trades that suit your style and stick to them, only make 1 change at a time to improve them (then you know whats worked)... You can make this work but treat £2 stakes as £500 stakes.
The biggest mistake I made early on was saying "Oh it's only £10 I can afford it" What I do now is makes sure they win £100 or £50... Oh and I stop chasing losses, I have a structured plan based on stats & previous results
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I am going to start updating all games that i filter out whether i trade them or not. So far have only been recording wins/losses. thanks alan for the heads up on that
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@alan-steward what would you say is your best strategy mate? CS markets?
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Another FHG Split Stake come in @ Reid... Still in test mode so can't share just yet
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@martin-futter Since membership mate... I download and update results daily (near enough, sometimes I play catch up re results)...
Moving forward (and yes I've done okay since my Independence Day 4th July) these filters are my business lifeline!!!
I've stressed many times how important it is to download your filters daily, update results daily & most importantly MEASURE them!
"What we measure we can manage"
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@ryan-carruthers LOL, but yours did slightly better than mine last month... One thing with my filter it is based on the last 5 games played so should be more up to date re COVID (so long as they've played 5 games each behind closed doors)
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin-futter My Split Stake filter (Ryan's version with my leagues) is only down 0.3pts this month overall... It will bounce back!
Interestingly my 25% Split Stake filter is just over 3.5pts green for the month... They generally run neck & neck so I've no doubt mine will drop off and Ryans will pick up
how long have you been testing your football filters?
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@alan-steward If it doesn't we will be swapping yours for mine
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@martin-futter My Split Stake filter (Ryan's version with my leagues) is only down 0.3pts this month overall... It will bounce back!
Interestingly my 25% Split Stake filter is just over 3.5pts green for the month... They generally run neck & neck so I've no doubt mine will drop off and Ryans will pick up
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
There was some good news. Bytovia took the lead early, went behind late and levelled again so more data supporting I should be laying these like Martin. I've tracked 6 wins and 2 losses so far. Because these are likely to be low liability it's looking to make more and more sense.
Also, something I would have dismissed looking for areas in which I could trim the fat previously. Trencin superior home tea, nothing to play for and trounced 0-3. Well avoided.
Another thing we have to look at (in these times) Trencin were not playing at home! Totally different stadium
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
likely been asked before but someone asked what id been up to lately and i mentioned the sport trading. To which they replied: what is that? I then went onto explain but i struggle to find words to say what it is. So the question is how do you explain what you do to people who arent in the loop?
Like the stock-market except for sports events.
So trades won't usually hold as long but Betfair trading is the same premise, buy high and sell low or sell low and buy high!
One thing that really get's my goat is when people don't get the difference between the Exchange and say the people who go into Betfred to punt on a horse because the name sounds 'cool'. We couldn't be farther apart lol!
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There was some good news. Bytovia took the lead early, went behind late and levelled again so more data supporting I should be laying these like Martin. I've tracked 6 wins and 2 losses so far. Because these are likely to be low liability it's looking to make more and more sense.
Also, something I would have dismissed looking for areas in which I could trim the fat previously. Trencin superior home tea, nothing to play for and trounced 0-3. Well avoided.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Bit of a pants day. Jeonbuk pretty much scratched then Santander losing without reply.
Had a LCS in Finland before I realised the problem with one of my filters was that it only calculated average combined and not individually to make sure both teams were a threat. As it turned out Musa hadn't scored for 231 minutes so it shouldn't have been a surprise they didn't score today.
Did a LCS in Las Palmas which at least made half of that back.
All in all 4 trades, 1 win, 1 scratch, 2 losses.
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Typical with Juve game... It fell a bit short on my overall BTTS % to jump into a 4 Goal Correct Score trade and it hit 4 goals with what must have been the last kick of the game... Wouldn't have had to trade out and could have got full profits lol.
Mind you, wouldn't have been too happy had it been a losing trade... On to tomorrow
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Didn't get too many opportunities from my main Correct Score filters today... Either the 3 Goal games looked too strong and the 4 Goal games looked too weak.
Ended up doing Split Stake FHG on the strong 3 goal ones but only got just under 0.5pts green... Got 0.25pts green on my Split Stake filter giving a total of 0.75pts green
Green is green i guess... Hope you guys had a good one
Oleksandriya v Dyn. Kiev
