The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@stuart-capstick Have to disagree with you on the Copenhagen thing. FC Copenhagen are absolutely threatened on the 2nd place, as AGF (Aarhus) is getting very close - only 2 points separate them with 3 matches to go - and they face each other in the next game and as AGF are in much better shape, FCC had everything to play for yesterday. They just aren't very good at the moment. Also, the FCC vs Brøndby match is the most important match in Denmark when it comes to fans, as the two teams hate each other and are the biggest clubs (in terms of fans), so FCC had a lot of reasons to want to win that match.
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Firstly, if it's any consolation, I've had the worst weekend for a LONG time (about 4.5 points down). Some were just unexpected (Cagliari Lecce 0-0 WTF!?) others unfortunate (had late goal Fenerbahce Sivasspor - disallowed goal) and missed some others by minutes (Napoli goal at 1-1).
0-2 games. How about just laying U 2.5 if it is 0-2 at HT? Paper trade that. 0-2 is one of the least stable scorelines.
For what it's worth, better just to cash out if you lay the winning team. Less of the lingering sense of regret, which then means later trading is not clouded.The other thing is, like mine and everyone else's, your filters are based on historical patterns of play (a team at home will fight to get level if losing). But we're not in Kansas any more. No crowds, financial difficulties etc.
This means it's better just to look at games where something is at stake. For example, Copenhagen Brondby- neither team had anything to play for. Midtylland has the title, Copenhagen isn't threatened for second place. COVID or no COVID AC Milan will fight to get nearer the top against Napoli.
I'm not criticising you in any way. In fact, I always admire your honesty. You're a braver man than me.
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My other H2 filter I'm doing what I should have done today. Tracking it privately.
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ELO Winning Team Lays - Won't Stay Down
Got to be another good day coming up. Feel it in me bones I does!
Inter are without Lukaku who is top scorer for the team by a distance but all the other goal getters and influencers should hopefully be there. I'll check lineup tomorrow to see if they are taking it easy or trying to finish as high up the table as possible.
Over & Out - 2nd Half Goals:
Not staying up for Real Salt Lake but will be interesting to see the result nonetheless. If lineup and price look good I'll go for a 2nd half goal 64 mins in. Score must be 0-0/1-1 at HT presently although I'll keep tracking the other scores. Also no 2nd half goals before entry or I'll move on.
Titanic - Lay away @ 0-2
Not interested in what the away team does stats wise but if they take a 2 goal lead I'll lay them in the expectation these home teams have enough fire power to get back into it.
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@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer By the way - Brøndby had a goal wrongfully disallowed at the 90th minute for offside. TV pictures showed it wasn't (we only get the beloved VAR next season).
Ffs haha
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@martin-futter I'm not sure it is anymore. Villa have spent loads this summer, Bournemouth have spent a fair bit over their few years in the Prem and Fulham did the same last year. They've all spent money in the wrong places and that's the major issue.
I don't think Norwich would have been far away if they'd invested wisely in the correct areas. They scored goals for fun last year but also shipped a fair few as well. They were never going to get away with out-scoring teams this season in the Prem but it wasn't an impossible obstacle to overcome. Farke summed up Norwich's season in a nutshell yesterday when he said 19 times out of 20 they would have been relegated. I'd feel incredibly short changed if I was a Norwich fan listening to that.
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@finn-kristensen yes the cost me one point
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What are peoples opinions on what a decent return from a strategy are per week or month. Ive heard around 10% per month from one strategy.
I know it wont always be the same month to month but just looking to compare my results with what others aim for -
@richard-latimer By the way - Brøndby had a goal wrongfully disallowed at the 90th minute for offside. TV pictures showed it wasn't (we only get the beloved VAR next season).
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@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer Excellent post, Richard. Those kind of summaries, even if they hurt to write, can in themselves be a lot worth since they make you think about what went wrong, and I believe you'll learn a lot from that. In fact, from reading it, I am sure you already have learned a lot about what to do and what to look for.
I can't offer any advice right away on how to best handle the comebacks but I will give it a thought and get back to you if I come up with any brilliant idea. We all learn from this. Your Titanic filter-results look very promising!
Cheers Finn
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer Excellent post, Richard. Those kind of summaries, even if they hurt to write, can in themselves be a lot worth since they make you think about what went wrong, and I believe you'll learn a lot from that. In fact, from reading it, I am sure you already have learned a lot about what to do and what to look for.
I can't offer any advice right away on how to best handle the comebacks but I will give it a thought and get back to you if I come up with any brilliant idea. We all learn from this. Your Titanic filter-results look very promising!
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Here's Titanic:
Wasn't expecting so much initially but for the liability if it continues this up it will be brilliant!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Oh so love updating after everything went to pot haha! Some good trades and if I'm honest some really poor ones. Trouble is so often I don't paper trade. Have these wonderful ideas and I insist on using them when it's clearly not the right thing to do.
So first trade was a good one from my Titanic filter. Ried 0-2 down, dead and buried so laid the away @1.17. Ried made it 1-2 and I took the small green on offer. They then made it 2-2 but I don't feel I made necessarily the wrong move in taking the green. At the time I had 16 trades, 5 of which had made a full comeback. Had there been more time I would have a little profit on 1-2 and most on 2-2 but there wasn't.
Then came the first poor trade. Filter is untested and inplay stats merely ok. Not much info on players as yet because league hasn't long started. Sagan Tosu lay under 0.5 and it ended 0-0.
Of course, not content to make one clanger I find it in my genes I need to make another so same untested filter Nordsjaelland lay under 0.5. Inplay stats a little better but not amazing. Again ends 0-0.
Very poor start.
Back to the Titanic filter which I really like at the moment. Wonder if anyone wants to give any better advice how to play it??
Luzern go 0-2 down. Laid away @ 1.2. They then go 0-3 down. Could have re-laid @ 1.04 but at this point not 100% sure what to do. When Luzern do get 1 back odds only go out to around 1.1 so thinking wouldn't have made much. Then Luzern get it back to 2-3. Ok chance to cash again and not much chance to leave anything on the 3-3 so I'm out. Still watching though and there it is. Next goal Luzern. From 0-3 to 3-3. That's now 6 full comebacks from 18 trades. At average odds of 1.13 so far 33.33% s/r wouldn't be bad at all haha!
Next up. Lay another winning team with a red card. Odds higher than they would have been but still confident. 1-1 and out.
Galatasaray fall 1-0 behind 2nd half to Ankaragucu but unfortunately they can't get the goal back. It's a 1.7 lay. Despite Falcao being out and only 2nd top scorer available al the assist makers are on the pitch and this is a trade I would make again. ELO lays just very up and down at the moment but they are by no means the worst problem right now.
Kristiansund 1-1 @ HT and 1-1 on 64 mins. Inplay stats ok and enough of the main players on the field. Filter is the one I derived from Martins and that has been going well so already a little faith there. Goal comes in the 88th. Nice.
Copenhagen - Mistake no. 3
Neither Copenhagen or Brondby havetheir dangerous players on the pitch. Brondby, as has been well documented here by Finn, don't really have any dangerous players anymore. Despite inplay stats being ok and this being from the same filter as Kristiansund it falls apart when you look at the players on the pitch. 0-0 FT.And that's it.
A really shite day!!
I've been able to analyse my mistakes, I'm only just starting to pay attention to the players so I guess teething troubles are expected. And I must, must, must......paper trade new stuff haha!!!
Finish up on a good note, who can offer me some advice on the best way they would look to play low liability 0-2 lays when a goal back or even another goal against comes.
Bear in mind you can't always remove liability and leave something on the full comeback if the first goal back comes late. And if I never take any green I could be waiting long periods inbetween cashing a nice win.....long enough that the amount of said win could be made up by lots of smaller wins.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@john-folan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Not really trading related but it’s football:
COME ON YOU SPURS!!
The decline of Woolwich FC continues.
If you are an Arsenal Fan and you need a cuddle ask a Norwich Fan. They need one too.
Think Spurs and Arsenal looked improved today, such a competitive league next year hard to see them getting back into the top 4.
Norwich fans will be fine mate, we don’t have anywhere near the money to compete at this level and sadly that’s mainly what this game is about in the Prem.
If only Kolasinac hadn't had a complete brain fart!! Then Mustafi who has been playing really well decided to go full Mustafi in the last 20 minutes. All a bit kamikaze in the end really!
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@martin-futter Looks like Pukki's run dry as well. Hasn't scored since late January, I can tell. Had been great until that time. We were sad to see him leave us but he has always been a good guy and so we were pleased to see him get the success he had at your place the first season and the first half of this as well.
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@john-folan said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Not really trading related but it’s football:
COME ON YOU SPURS!!
The decline of Woolwich FC continues.
If you are an Arsenal Fan and you need a cuddle ask a Norwich Fan. They need one too.
Think Spurs and Arsenal looked improved today, such a competitive league next year hard to see them getting back into the top 4.
Norwich fans will be fine mate, we don’t have anywhere near the money to compete at this level and sadly that’s mainly what this game is about in the Prem.
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@james-woodroffe > One of the all time great songs
Definitely a classic - and with some great, relevant lyrics.
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@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
good to hear, and thats the right thing to do. knowing when to walk away is key.
One of the all time great songs
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@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Gone for late goal in Cagliari match laid 0-0 at 1.38.
Now they’ve gone and suspended the market about 1 minute after I entered. What’s up with that??
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Gone for late goal in Cagliari match laid 0-0 at 1.38.
