The BTC Football Trading Thread

James Woodroffe

Good to see MLS has only taken a few days to return to normal.

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@richard-latimer that i have soccer database but after corona everything is different..... away team win more matches by the way...........the soccer database is not from here but i know that lot of games have sh goals and late goals........ but let say it is ht - and hometeam have good attaching and have more then over 1.5 goals ft at home arround 80% then also likely we go to have at least sh goal... but this was only my opinion by the way

Richard Latimer

@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer Do y know that 2-0/0-2statical the best score for sh goals arround 82% in the database from 10 years and 0-0 78%, but for sh goals all about good in play stats sh, but sometimes goals come from nowhere.....
but in the excel sheet draw ht do it much better the another score line......maybe it isis the lost 20 min the the two teams want to win something like that

What database are you referring to?

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@richard-latimer Do y know that 2-0/0-2statical the best score for sh goals arround 82% in the database from 10 years and 0-0 78%, but for sh goals all about good in play stats sh, but sometimes goals come from nowhere.....
but in the excel sheet draw ht do it much better the another score line......maybe it isis the lost 20 min the the two teams want to win something like that

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Just a little more info on best places to look for team news. Noticed a discrepancy between Flashscore and transfermarkt so was trying to see the most reliable in this instance.

All the latest news reports are that while Lukako probably will not start he will be in the squad. Flashscore also has Victor Moses as injured but he too will be in the squad.

I think transfermarkt is a little more reliable.

Easiest way to research click this link for todays fixtures:

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/ticker/index/live

Then click on team you want followed by highlighting the squad banner and going to injuries/suspensions.

However, it really does look like for the smaller leagues (and I'm not talking mega small here) there is no alternative other than to check lineups AFTER they are released. Transfermarkt has nothing on Allsvenskan, nothing on Iceland, nothing on Romania.

Richard Latimer

Just a little more info on best places to look for team news. Noticed a discrepancy between Flashscore and transfermarkt so was trying to see the most reliable in this instance.

All the latest news reports are that while Lukako probably will not start he will be in the squad. Flashscore also has Victor Moses as injured but he too will be in the squad.

I think transfermarkt is a little more reliable.

Easiest way to research click this link for todays fixtures:

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/ticker/index/live

Then click on team you want followed by highlighting the squad banner and going to injuries/suspensions.

James Woodroffe

@keith-anderson you better believe it

Akiva Anderson

@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@keith-anderson should be with fans mate as only Melbourne is a no go. Reports coming out of Aussie press saying 4,500 allowed in Gosford on Friday night. Given that the NRL and AFL are gradually allowing more in each week. (60,000 in Perth by Sunday) I would assume the A League will do the same and gradually build it.

Happy days! Backing FHG and LCS at HT it is then!

James Woodroffe

@keith-anderson should be with fans mate as only Melbourne is a no go. Reports coming out of Aussie press saying 4,500 allowed in Gosford on Friday night. Given that the NRL and AFL are gradually allowing more in each week. (60,000 in Perth by Sunday) I would assume the A League will do the same and gradually build it.

Akiva Anderson

@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

A League in Australia will return on Friday morning U.K. time.

With or without fans?

Scottish Premier League starts on the 1st August and the Belgian League starts the week after

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First half goals in these games too:
13/07/20 20:15 Iceland Pepsideild Valur v Stjarnan FHG
13/07/20 20:45 Italy Serie A Inter v Torino FHG

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13/07/20 14:00 USA Mls Toronto FC v DC United LTD?
13/07/20 18:30 Romania Liga 1 CFR Cluj v Gaz Metan Medias Lay away if 0-1
13/07/20 19:00 Turkey Super Lig Yeni Malatyaspor v Besiktas LTD
13/07/20 19:00 Turkey Super Lig Denizlispor v Trabzonspor LTD
13/07/20 19:00 Turkey Super Lig Konyaspor v Basaksehir LTD/Lay home if 1-0

Will monitor the toronto game, probably only ltd if 0-0 at ht and pip stats.

James Woodroffe

A League in Australia will return on Friday morning U.K. time.

Ryan

Keeping my eye on the United game later if 0-0 at HT (I don't think it will be) but will back United or LTD, if the stats are in United's favour.

Richard Latimer

@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer wonder if its worth staying in on these 0-2 lays

Not enough data to answer that at the moment but purely going on things so far would have lost on average around 1.6-1.7 points on the losers and gained maybe 4.5 points as a rough estimate doing that.

Perhaps a 3pt gain although very hard to say for sure.

Greening small on 13 with a goal back I reckon maybe 3pts gain, maybe 0.7 loss so 2.3pts green overall. Of course sometimes higher strike rate can make up for that tiny difference in overall profit as you can compound quicker.

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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Oh so love updating after everything went to pot haha! Some good trades and if I'm honest some really poor ones. Trouble is so often I don't paper trade. Have these wonderful ideas and I insist on using them when it's clearly not the right thing to do.

So first trade was a good one from my Titanic filter. Ried 0-2 down, dead and buried so laid the away @1.17. Ried made it 1-2 and I took the small green on offer. They then made it 2-2 but I don't feel I made necessarily the wrong move in taking the green. At the time I had 16 trades, 5 of which had made a full comeback. Had there been more time I would have a little profit on 1-2 and most on 2-2 but there wasn't.

Then came the first poor trade. Filter is untested and inplay stats merely ok. Not much info on players as yet because league hasn't long started. Sagan Tosu lay under 0.5 and it ended 0-0.

Of course, not content to make one clanger I find it in my genes I need to make another so same untested filter Nordsjaelland lay under 0.5. Inplay stats a little better but not amazing. Again ends 0-0.

Very poor start.

Back to the Titanic filter which I really like at the moment. Wonder if anyone wants to give any better advice how to play it??

Luzern go 0-2 down. Laid away @ 1.2. They then go 0-3 down. Could have re-laid @ 1.04 but at this point not 100% sure what to do. When Luzern do get 1 back odds only go out to around 1.1 so thinking wouldn't have made much. Then Luzern get it back to 2-3. Ok chance to cash again and not much chance to leave anything on the 3-3 so I'm out. Still watching though and there it is. Next goal Luzern. From 0-3 to 3-3. That's now 6 full comebacks from 18 trades. At average odds of 1.13 so far 33.33% s/r wouldn't be bad at all haha!

Next up. Lay another winning team with a red card. Odds higher than they would have been but still confident. 1-1 and out.

Galatasaray fall 1-0 behind 2nd half to Ankaragucu but unfortunately they can't get the goal back. It's a 1.7 lay. Despite Falcao being out and only 2nd top scorer available al the assist makers are on the pitch and this is a trade I would make again. ELO lays just very up and down at the moment but they are by no means the worst problem right now.

Kristiansund 1-1 @ HT and 1-1 on 64 mins. Inplay stats ok and enough of the main players on the field. Filter is the one I derived from Martins and that has been going well so already a little faith there. Goal comes in the 88th. Nice.

Copenhagen - Mistake no. 3
Neither Copenhagen or Brondby havetheir dangerous players on the pitch. Brondby, as has been well documented here by Finn, don't really have any dangerous players anymore. Despite inplay stats being ok and this being from the same filter as Kristiansund it falls apart when you look at the players on the pitch. 0-0 FT.

And that's it.

A really shite day!!

I've been able to analyse my mistakes, I'm only just starting to pay attention to the players so I guess teething troubles are expected. And I must, must, must......paper trade new stuff haha!!!

Finish up on a good note, who can offer me some advice on the best way they would look to play low liability 0-2 lays when a goal back or even another goal against comes.

Bear in mind you can't always remove liability and leave something on the full comeback if the first goal back comes late. And if I never take any green I could be waiting long periods inbetween cashing a nice win.....long enough that the amount of said win could be made up by lots of smaller wins.

Your not alone Richard I had a bit of a nightmare this weekend,

Stuart Capstick

@finn-kristensen

Ok, Finn. Point taken.

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@richard-latimer wonder if its worth staying in on these 0-2 lays

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Here's Titanic:

Wasn't expecting so much initially but for the liability if it continues this up it will be brilliant!

13-5 on at least one goal back and all but one before 80 mins. I want 100 results which will take time but if it were to continue like that I'm best off staking higher on these because the reality is defying the odds big time.

Richard Latimer

@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer

Firstly, if it's any consolation, I've had the worst weekend for a LONG time (about 4.5 points down). Some were just unexpected (Cagliari Lecce 0-0 WTF!?) others unfortunate (had late goal Fenerbahce Sivasspor - disallowed goal) and missed some others by minutes (Napoli goal at 1-1).

0-2 games. How about just laying U 2.5 if it is 0-2 at HT? Paper trade that. 0-2 is one of the least stable scorelines.
For what it's worth, better just to cash out if you lay the winning team. Less of the lingering sense of regret, which then means later trading is not clouded.

The other thing is, like mine and everyone else's, your filters are based on historical patterns of play (a team at home will fight to get level if losing). But we're not in Kansas any more. No crowds, financial difficulties etc.

This means it's better just to look at games where something is at stake. For example, Copenhagen Brondby- neither team had anything to play for. Midtylland has the title, Copenhagen isn't threatened for second place. COVID or no COVID AC Milan will fight to get nearer the top against Napoli.

I'm not criticising you in any way. In fact, I always admire your honesty. You're a braver man than me.

The 0-2 lays I want to completely come away from the goal market. Only interested in low liability and potential of big comebacks. To be fair 6 in 18 is a fair few when you consider the odds. The fact I can do a partial green on most as well so to save a bit more for the full comeback is great. Just wasn't possible yesterday.atill made around 1/4 of a point and risked no more than than to get it on those.

I'm almost wondering if liability should be higher as at least 1 goal back is looking incredibly likely.