The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Stand out fixture for me today is brentford vs stoke. Brentford are on a brill run and with west brom losing yesterday can go into second with a win, with one game remaining. They are basically playing to get promoted to prem. Massive game. So great potential for goals
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Todays FHG Pick
England Championship 18/07/2020 12:30 Stoke City v Brentford
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Deserved poke in the eye for me with a big stick in Perth match... Made a first class schoolboy error... Had opportunity to take green or at very worst remove red.
I will trade that loss back but will only ever replace it with what could have been more potential green.
Yes we will always hit losses when trading but they should be avoided whenever possible... This loss was avoidable.
Am off to see my best mate this afternoon for a socially distanced BBQ and the beer will flow so no more trading for me today other than setting up my FHG goal picks for today on my bot... There is only one and post will follow
Have a green day guys
Oh... By the way Betfair, I will collect the 0.125pts red from this morning tomorrow... Keep it warm for me please
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Potentials for today:
18/07/20 10:00 Japan J1 League Yokohama v Kawasaki Frontale LTD
18/07/20 12:00 South Korea K League 1 Seoul v Pohang LTD
18/07/20 12:30 England Championship Stoke City v Brentford LTD
18/07/20 14:00 Austria 2. Liga A. Klagenfurt v FAC Wien LTD/Lay away if 0-1
18/07/20 17:00 Norway Eliteserien Mjondalen v Bodo/Glimt LTD/lay home if 1-0 -
@alan-steward this game is really bad .... pufff
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Think there should be another goal in Perth match but if I wasnt already in it I'd be wary of jumping in due to stats being so one sided
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Will look to lay Lahti if HIFK start lively due to (15min entry if HIFK are having the lions share of possession and shots, corners etc…)
H2H
0-0 HT 40%
1-0 HT 20%
80% Goal in H1
HIFK score 1st 60%
Lahti concede 1st 80%Reason for laying Lahti is that if the game is a draw at HT I should be able to remove some liability.
If 0-0 @ HT LTD
Haugesund v Viking
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer for me they were 86 and 99 so didn't hit the target to qualify, nice winners for you though
Do you look at ratings in the morning? They do change overnight for some reason on some games. I always look the night before.
I get emailed them
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 I know mate which is why I decided to do below... But then that's Aussie football for you, I wasnt prepared to take on FHG with those stats but fully expected minimum 2 goals
then i go in sh but i am watching the match and really no goal chance at all, but what is in play stats worths lot of action and big goal chances and no goal , i think it is all about the scores between the two teams in long run
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@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 I know mate which is why I decided to do below... But then that's Aussie football for you, I wasnt prepared to take on FHG with those stats but fully expect/expected minimum 2 goals
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@alan-steward this really sucks nothing happend the first 30 min and goal puff
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1-0 in Perth match was just about to suggest fun split stakes & 50% over 1.5 goals & 50% over 2.5 goals... Just got matched on o1.5 goals but will let it run... Sorry couldn't post quick enough
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@dean-adams said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dean-adams said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Some games popping up on the filter for tonight if I find time:
O1.5 S/S
17:30 Austria Vienna 2 v FC Juniors - no trade - 2 early goal
20:00 Cittadella v Ascoli - Win - 1ptLTD/LCS @60’
17:30 kapfenberg v lustenau - no trade - goals and price all over the place
19:25 Reid v Innsbruck - no trade - same as above
20:00 crotone v salernitana - no trade - 2 goals before 60’1pt green for yesterday.
Haven’t had a chance to refine today’s list, might be a no trade day -
@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Games im looking at today:
Austria - Kapfenberger v Lustenau - Looking for a SH goal or 2. Kapfenbergers season is pretty much over but Lustenau are scrapping for survival so i will want to see a lot of intent from them. This will be the main factor for me in-play but previous stats suggest a SH goal is likely
Austria - Austria Vienna v FC Juniors - Looking for a SH goal. Not much H2H for these 2 so will see how it looks in-play but Vienna are fighting for top spot and are playing at home so will want the win
Austria - Ried v Wacker Innsbruck - Looking for a FH goal
English PL West Ham v Watford - Looking for a FH goal. Both teams are desperate for a win. The main red flag for me is whether one or both teams are happy to take their chances on winning the SH half, therefore they could be happy to take 0-0 HT. I will only enter if that doesnt seem to be the caseGoals galore in these games, just wrong scorelines/goal timings to get involved! The 2 games looking for SH goals had 16 goals in total, both games had 4 SH goals! However, the games were already won by half time so i didnt feel i should get involved especially at the odds offered. The two games looking for FH goals had a combined 5 FH goals but one game scored after 2' and the other scored after 6'!
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@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Just in case anybody is thinking of the A League tomorrow just a heads up. Perth are NOT at home it’s a home game at their opponents Central Coast’s home ground. This is also the case with Brisbane playing their home match against Adelaide on the Gold Coast on Sunday and not actually in Brisbane. For what it’s worth Perth are significantly better than CC who have all sorts of off field woes so it probably won’t make much difference but CC have avoided a 3,000k trip to get an away game at home.
It's an ELO lay but definitely keep an eye on this before jumping in now. Thanks for the heads up.
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@james-woodroffe Na chum, complete swing which was a shame, was about.... 2 points profit before, down to 2 points red after the last two. Not disappointed, all learning!
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Just in case anybody is thinking of the A League tomorrow just a heads up. Perth are NOT at home it’s a home game at their opponents Central Coast’s home ground. This is also the case with Brisbane playing their home match against Adelaide on the Gold Coast on Sunday and not actually in Brisbane. For what it’s worth Perth are significantly better than CC who have all sorts of off field woes so it probably won’t make much difference but CC have avoided a 3,000k trip to get an away game at home.
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer for me they were 86 and 99 so didn't hit the target to qualify, nice winners for you though
Do you look at ratings in the morning? They do change overnight for some reason on some games. I always look the night before.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@daniel-cooper did you still finish green for the day?
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Just on a points Red for tonight. Probably didn’t need to trade that last match to be fair but value was good and the Perugia goalie made some pretty sweet saves so it could just as easily have been a great trade
Until tomorrow.
