The BTC Football Trading Thread
-
@liam-willis Hi mate what is the selection criteria... Did I miss this earlier?
-
@liam-willis said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
one bit of advice i would give is dont dismiss a filter and do enough data research on it before you do. before we went into lockdown i did the very basic on data entry but getting furloughed was a god send cos it made me concentrate more on the trading analysis i picked out a couple of old filters and worked on them. they were profitable and i didnt even know. pick a filter focus on it enter the data on it every day (tedious but worth it). you could have a goldmine sitting there and you wouldnt know unless you put the effort in. its the biggest thing ive learnt recently.
...is a superb comment.
Test the hell out of your results. Play around with staking/entry points. Most importantly, work out the drawdown. Any successful strategy will have a losing run- see Richard's post with the table yesterday.
It's very human to get frustrated with a losing run. This may lead to ditching a profitable strategy, or even worse, taking a risk to chase losses (again, very normal).
The really good traders on here all refer to removal of emotion. Easier said than done. But, one way to help is to test your strategy: work out the P/L if you followed it for a number of months or years, get a graph so you can see how it grows your bank. If you know your strategy, it helps you to be detached and objective. You accept losses because you know they are normal and temporary. -
@liam-willis i missed out the formula for strike rate ect but its 87.22% if that helps
-
ok ive copied the spreadsheet onto google sheets the blue is a no trade before 50th min asumed odds on ht lcs at 5.0 this is profitable but the least of all. lcs at 60 assuming odds are 3.0 to lay this is profitable up to 3.5. other is the over 70 and drip back these are most profitable. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Abk7GpDxpnHnQ_Yq2_KRz3cqjP-Ukz1KsTOXolLO_sk/edit?usp=sharing
-
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@liam-willis said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@liam-willis said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer yeah your right mate once you know what type of trader you are you can set your filters to suit
Right about what? HT scorelines haha?
haha sorry missed the previous question. it is any scoreline yes ive tried to see if there is a pattern i.e 3-0 4-0 ht ect to see if to avoid them but it doesnt matter really
Interesting. Do you have a spreadsheet I can have a look at?
yes mate let me work out how to do it cos its on a free software called libre office ill see if i can get it over
-
@ryan-carruthers is adam working today do you know?
-
@liam-willis YES!! This is so true, there's some gold in the older filters just by tweaking them, this led me to when testing new filters out creating a couple of versions of them then I can track them all at the same time - all in the same market mind - I don't do a Over 2.5 goals one and tweak it then test match odds etc... lol
I'll set my base filter then tweak it the be version A, B & C....
-
@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@liam-willis I like that way of doing it, ive got a similar filter which ive just started recording again. Only got 54 results and 51 have had a SH goal but it worked really well previously over 400 results so ive been trying to find a sweet spot of price compared to timing
Is this the one you gave me mate on the software stats thread? I've been monitoring it and it's flying over 70% strike rate on over 1.5 in H2...1 goal in second half Looks similair to what you've mentioned here
-
@liam-willis said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@liam-willis said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer yeah your right mate once you know what type of trader you are you can set your filters to suit
Right about what? HT scorelines haha?
haha sorry missed the previous question. it is any scoreline yes ive tried to see if there is a pattern i.e 3-0 4-0 ht ect to see if to avoid them but it doesnt matter really
Interesting. Do you have a spreadsheet I can have a look at?
-
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@liam-willis said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer yeah your right mate once you know what type of trader you are you can set your filters to suit
Right about what? HT scorelines haha?
haha sorry missed the previous question. it is any scoreline yes ive tried to see if there is a pattern i.e 3-0 4-0 ht ect to see if to avoid them but it doesnt matter really
-
@liam-willis said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer yeah your right mate once you know what type of trader you are you can set your filters to suit
Right about what? HT scorelines haha?
-
@richard-latimer yeah your right mate once you know what type of trader you are you can set your filters to suit
-
@liam-willis as I said, what HT score lines do you look at or is it any?
-
@liam-willis said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
one bit of advice i would give is dont dismiss a filter and do enough data research on it before you do. before we went into lockdown i did the very basic on data entry but getting furloughed was a god send cos it made me concentrate more on the trading analysis i picked out a couple of old filters and worked on them. they were profitable and i didnt even know. pick a filter focus on it enter the data on it every day (tedious but worth it). you could have a goldmine sitting there and you wouldnt know unless you put the effort in. its the biggest thing ive learnt recently.
I'm sure this would apply to loads of my old deleted filters haha!! The good thing is, I think if you know what kind of thing you are looking for, it's easy to recreate several times over using slighlty different criteria and parameters.
-
@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@gary-brown said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I am not confident with the over 1.5 goals from score line just yet due to how to continue the trade from 80+ mins
would it be better to do like Ryans Split stake, and maybe cash out no matter around the 75 mark? Surely if you a goal goes in after that even then you would only be looking at scratch?
I think if you only got in around 50-53 you'd have a bit more grace than that. You'd be looking at over evens I'd imagine so if a goal goes in 80 mins I'm sure you could still green.
-
one bit of advice i would give is dont dismiss a filter and do enough data research on it before you do. before we went into lockdown i did the very basic on data entry but getting furloughed was a god send cos it made me concentrate more on the trading analysis i picked out a couple of old filters and worked on them. they were profitable and i didnt even know. pick a filter focus on it enter the data on it every day (tedious but worth it). you could have a goldmine sitting there and you wouldnt know unless you put the effort in. its the biggest thing ive learnt recently.
-
@gary-brown said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I am not confident with the over 1.5 goals from score line just yet due to how to continue the trade from 80+ mins
would it be better to do like Ryans Split stake, and maybe cash out no matter around the 75 mark? Surely if you a goal goes in after that even then you would only be looking at scratch?
-
I am not confident with the over 1.5 goals from score line just yet due to how to continue the trade from 80+ mins
-
@gary-brown said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
So basically we have 3 main ideas about 2nd half goal trading.
-
Drip backing from 1.35 in 4 parts
-
LCS/LTD or back overs around 70mins
-
Back 1.5 goals over current score line in 4 parts from odds around 2.0 hopefully around 50mins.
pretty much mate and all of them suit different styles of trader
-
-
So basically we have 3 main ideas about 2nd half goal trading.
-
Drip backing from 1.35 in 4 parts
-
LCS/LTD or back overs around 70mins
-
Back 1.5 goals over current score line in 4 parts from odds around 2.0 hopefully around 50mins.
-
