The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@alan-steward INTERESTING YOUR LIST 84% WE go to have sh goals..... that means we can blindly in the overs 1.5 SH trades.............0-0 ht 77´% we had sh goal, the same what i saw in the 10 year data base interesting
ht 0-1 SH goal 84% -
@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer @John-Hurst Add this formula to the cell you'd like to collect data (Profit/Loss)
=SUBTOTAL(9,A3:A3263)
Obviously adjust the letter (column) & number (row) to suit the data you wish to measure... I haven't got data running all the way down to row 3263 (more of a random No.) but if I ever did reach it I would increase it
I add mine to top left of spreadsheet and I also freeze row 2 so that it keeps the header above any games when scrolling (basic I know but that's how I set mine up lol)
Sample spreadsheet which measures Split Stake post COVID
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OdAXnY52u2rjZVGQXNPh86u2ZzSkMsbK/view?usp=sharing
I haven't traded all the games but know that 0.25pts works for avg win & - 0.665 works for avg loss... I will update this and look to keep it in my signature link
Thanks Alan. I always use freeze panes.
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@dean-adams said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dean-adams said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
There really is no getting around it. This is a game of probabilities and statistics. This is maths pure and simple, it's why I posted that table.
Doesn't matter how good you are at reading the stats, the motivation, the overall picture. Any strategy will hit losing streaks of varying degrees according to the implied probabilities and the amount staked needs to account for this.
Price is also key to this
Exactly but price is directly related to the implied probability and therefore also what you can expect as a maximum potential losing streak.
Agreed, which is why it needs to correlate to the strike rate of your strategy, if not move on.
I would say the one caveat here is that your overall strike rate won't necessarily correlate to your strike rate on differing prices. For example, I will happily lay 5's, 6's, 7's on my ELO when the overall strike rate is only around 75%.
My s/r on 5's, 6's and 7's is near enough 100% haha!!
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@richard-latimer @John-Hurst Add this formula to the cell you'd like to collect data (Profit/Loss)
=SUBTOTAL(9,A3:A3263)
Obviously adjust the letter (column) & number (row) to suit the data you wish to measure... I haven't got data running all the way down to row 3263 (more of a random No.) but if I ever did reach it I would increase it
I add mine to top left of spreadsheet and I also freeze row 2 so that it keeps the header above any games when scrolling (basic I know but that's how I set mine up lol)
Sample spreadsheet which measures Split Stake post COVID
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1OdAXnY52u2rjZVGQXNPh86u2ZzSkMsbK/view?usp=sharing
I haven't traded all the games but know that 0.25pts works for avg win & - 0.665 works for avg loss... I will update this and look to keep it in my signature link
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Need to look at strike rates and entry points. I also might start doing LCS instead of LTD as at least then i will know the exact amount of profit i will get, it also allows for when the underdog scores. The dog scoring pretty much scratches a LTD unless a goal is late on and thats something i would like to avoid.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dean-adams said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
There really is no getting around it. This is a game of probabilities and statistics. This is maths pure and simple, it's why I posted that table.
Doesn't matter how good you are at reading the stats, the motivation, the overall picture. Any strategy will hit losing streaks of varying degrees according to the implied probabilities and the amount staked needs to account for this.
Price is also key to this
Exactly but price is directly related to the implied probability and therefore also what you can expect as a maximum potential losing streak.
Agreed, which is why it needs to correlate to the strike rate of your strategy, if not move on.
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@alan-steward cheers alan
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@dean-adams said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
There really is no getting around it. This is a game of probabilities and statistics. This is maths pure and simple, it's why I posted that table.
Doesn't matter how good you are at reading the stats, the motivation, the overall picture. Any strategy will hit losing streaks of varying degrees according to the implied probabilities and the amount staked needs to account for this.
Price is also key to this
Exactly but price is directly related to the implied probability and therefore also what you can expect as a maximum potential losing streak.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
There really is no getting around it. This is a game of probabilities and statistics. This is maths pure and simple, it's why I posted that table.
Doesn't matter how good you are at reading the stats, the motivation, the overall picture. Any strategy will hit losing streaks of varying degrees according to the implied probabilities and the amount staked needs to account for this.
Price is also key to this
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@john-hurst Losses are part of trading, its inevitable. Have a listen/read of 'trading in the zone' and it explains it well. It also explains that so many traders have a couple of losses and think they need to learn more about the markets/stats when in reality its more about the emotional side of trading that needs developing. You have to try and take the emotion out of the trades and if you are sweating on a goal then you are possibly overstaking. Bring your liability down until you get to a point where a loss or a win doesnt affect you too much either way, otherwise you end up with a rollercoaster of erratic emotions. Concentrate more on the execution of the trade than the outcome
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Also with mine... Probably simpler, I can filter between months, leagues, teams, weeks etc using a dynamic formula in a cell... It auto-sums whatever you've filtered.
I like that idea. How do you do that?
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@Richard-Latimer Love that graph mate... Very profesional!!! @John-Hurst I have a spreadsheet you can use to track results then maybe you can choose between Richards or mine depending on what you might fancy suits your needs/capabilities better.
Think I might add the graph to mine as it looks like a great visual snap shot.
Also with mine... Probably simpler, I can filter between months, leagues, teams, weeks etc using a dynamic formula in a cell... It auto-sums whatever you've filtered.
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@martin-walker i have overstaked for so early on with my results. Can fix that. cheers martin
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@richard-latimer really learning the maths behind all this is the best thing i ever did
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@john-hurst the data you have already should give an idea wether your liability was too much an unsustainable
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There really is no getting around it. This is a game of probabilities and statistics. This is maths pure and simple, it's why I posted that table.
Doesn't matter how good you are at reading the stats, the motivation, the overall picture. Any strategy will hit losing streaks of varying degrees according to the implied probabilities and the amount staked needs to account for this.
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@richard-latimer lol i hope thats not whats happening. Felt confident before last night and still do but i think seeing those games filled with so much action and no goals has knocked me back a bit.
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@martin-walker i track all results with profit/loss. Relatively new to this so only have 20 or so results. Before last night my ltd was 95% strike rate. Not a big enough sample size though to make any assumptions about it
I've had many purple patches with LTD and LCS where you think you've just found the goose that lays the golden egg. Then you hit loser after loser and throw the baby out with the bath water haha!!
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@martin-walker i track all results with profit/loss. Relatively new to this so only have 20 or so results. Not a big enough sample size though to make any assumptions about it
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@richard-latimer thanks richard i will do this this morning. Yesterday was maybe what i needed- never smooth sailing in this game and thats something i need to get used to.
