The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@richard-latimer never said it wasnt, if you then lay higher odds you take into account average odds for the strat, we are all agreeing just a different perspective of what it means, as long as profit over a large sample is consistent then thats all that matters, strike rates are just used to help you measure and understand why. PRICE is king. I far rather keep things simple get a better price than the actual probability and long term if your average profit is greater than your strike rate you profit.
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Like @Alan-Steward has said, what we measure we can manage. Graphs and detailed accounts of yield/strike rate etc are all ways of measuring and hence managing.
Without these I wouldn't know what was profitable or how profitable compared to what I'd put in and I'd just be guessing.
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@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dean-adams people like to get really flustered about certain things with trading. Your overall strike rate should determine minimum odds to take, lets take a a FHG for example your strike rate is 80% then anything over the odds of 1.3 and your making profit plain and simple. As long as your overall strategy is you taking prices that are better than your strike rates probability you will make profit, the better the price we get compared to our strike rate the better, this is why some enter at different prices and times. Im a late goal guy so my lay prices are low but doesnt mean there isnt some other guy making long term profit doing it differently, i prefer the profit per trade stat in my trading. Strike rates are like the table richard posted all about your ability to take a loss. If your strike rate requires a high strike rate then there is little room for error, i have a low one which allows errors because im getting in at prices that suit my style. Its all personal preference. You made a valid point Price is key, PRICE is king! Price should determine everything. The little edges we use such as motivation, pre match stats, time of entry etc are all just adding to your ability to limit risk(making it less of a gamble). It all boils down to are we taking a better price than the actual probability of an outcome long term. If we are then we make profit
Doesnt matter what style of trader you are, laying high or laying low as long as the price you take is better than your strike rate. Please dont over complicate the most important part of trading!I still stand by the caveat that your overall strike rate will differ based on prices of individual trades in which case just because you have an overall strike rate of 75% doesn't mean you can't take odds of 4.0 for example. It's obviously about knowing the right price for the trade in question. A harder concept for sure but just as valuable long term.
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@alan-steward exactly they both relate, trading is simply about getting on better prices than your strategies minimum odds(strike rates allowance). The gap in what odds you select for profit per trade like i do is down to the traders style/view of value. The other factors are just edges that help you achieve better strike rates (limit risks). Profit is all that matters, tracking your strike rate just allows for you to understand why.
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tell you something my graph game has gone up to a whole other level today
as we all know graphs are so important in the success of any wannabe sports trader..... -
@darri Very well written and very well put across... I don't worry so much about strike rate as I really look for profitability within my filter... If it makes profit I'll trade it!
I tend to look for minimum 4pts return per filter per month, if it can't achieve that I'll look to tweak it accordingly or ditch the filter.
I guess I reverse engineer and look for profit over strike rate although I guess they're basically the same thing... i.e. You won't get profit if the strike rate isn't correct.
Profit, Profit, Profit... And look after it when you've got it!
I'm a poet & didn't know it lol
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@dean-adams people like to get really flustered about certain things with trading. Your overall strike rate should determine minimum odds to take, lets take a a FHG for example your strike rate is 80% then anything over the odds of 1.3 and your making profit plain and simple. As long as your overall strategy is you taking prices that are better than your strike rates probability you will make profit, the better the price we get compared to our strike rate the better, this is why some enter at different prices and times. Im a late goal guy so my lay prices are low but doesnt mean there isnt some other guy making long term profit doing it differently, i prefer the profit per trade stat in my trading. Strike rates are like the table richard posted all about your ability to take a loss. If your strike rate requires a high strike rate then there is little room for error, i have a low one which allows errors because im getting in at prices that suit my style. Its all personal preference. You made a valid point Price is key, PRICE is king! Price should determine everything. The little edges we use such as motivation, pre match stats, time of entry etc are all just adding to your ability to limit risk(making it less of a gamble). It all boils down to are we taking a better price than the actual probability of an outcome long term. If we are then we make profit
Doesnt matter what style of trader you are, laying high or laying low as long as the price you take is better than your strike rate. Please dont over complicate the most important part of trading! -
@richard-latimer Emotional "crutch" lol
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@matt-wood said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Afternoon all. Rough day yesterday, biggest red yet but its amazing what a shitty nights sleep can do
Just catching up on the forum, fab discussions going on today, lots of food for thought for the likes of me. BTC is a great place to be, everyone chipping in with the help
@John-Hurst Think we have both beaten ourselves up a bit. Maybe more than needed it might seem.
@Richard-Latimer @Alan-Steward Re: =SUBTOTAL(9,A3:A3263), I am pretty sure (use google sheets myself) in excel that if you just did =SUBTOTAL(9,A3:A) it would start at what ever line you entered (3 in this case) and then do the whole column. Helpful if you start adding in lines anywhere or extras to the sheet.
We are like an emotional crutch for everyone including me haha!
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Afternoon all. Rough day yesterday, biggest red yet but its amazing what a shitty nights sleep can do
Just catching up on the forum, fab discussions going on today, lots of food for thought for the likes of me. BTC is a great place to be, everyone chipping in with the help
@John-Hurst Think we have both beaten ourselves up a bit. Maybe more than needed it might seem.
@Richard-Latimer @Alan-Steward Re: =SUBTOTAL(9,A3:A3263), I am pretty sure (use google sheets myself) in excel that if you just did =SUBTOTAL(9,A3:A) it would start at what ever line you entered (3 in this case) and then do the whole column. Helpful if you start adding in lines anywhere or extras to the sheet.
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer was looking at a swedish game just there- and its the sirius game. Afer how well they are doing i would have expected a higher ELO rating which makes me think the stats are from the previous season too.
I think they take from last season at the beginning for sure but I don't think that's altogether a bad thing. The way a team finishes off the season prev can often have a bearing on how they start the next.
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@Adam-Williams @Martin-Futter can you have a look and find out how many games the ELO home/away ratings take into account to produce to the data please.
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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer Of all the games which are on your comeback strategy, how many become an actual trade? So how many times does the underdog go ahead?
How long is a piece of string haha!!
Sometimes it seems that game after game qualifies and other times I can have a list of 30 and get maybe 1 or 2.
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@richard-latimer thanks for taking the time to explain fella. Makes sense
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@richard-latimer Of all the games which are on your comeback strategy, how many become an actual trade? So how many times does the underdog go ahead?
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@richard-latimer was looking at a swedish game just there- and its the sirius game. Afer how well they are doing i would have expected a higher ELO rating which makes me think the stats are from the previous season too.
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
quick question on the ELO ratings for home and away teams: how many games are these based off? is this current season only?
One for @Adam-Williams that one. I would imagine they are more accurate the longer the season goes but I have not had a problem using them at the start of the season personally. Sweden is a great example.
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@dean-adams said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dean-adams said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dean-adams said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
There really is no getting around it. This is a game of probabilities and statistics. This is maths pure and simple, it's why I posted that table.
Doesn't matter how good you are at reading the stats, the motivation, the overall picture. Any strategy will hit losing streaks of varying degrees according to the implied probabilities and the amount staked needs to account for this.
Price is also key to this
Exactly but price is directly related to the implied probability and therefore also what you can expect as a maximum potential losing streak.
Agreed, which is why it needs to correlate to the strike rate of your strategy, if not move on.
I would say the one caveat here is that your overall strike rate won't necessarily correlate to your strike rate on differing prices. For example, I will happily lay 5's, 6's, 7's on my ELO when the overall strike rate is only around 75%.
My s/r on 5's, 6's and 7's is near enough 100% haha!
This boggles my brain a bit haha. Iām interested to learn. Am I right in saying that it only works at those prices on the ELO strategy. I assume because of the vast difference in team ability?
Whereas a normal strategy relies on filtering a particular statistic, or set of statistics that re-occur in order to give a probability.I'm pretty confident across all prices according to my results sheet but yeah, the higher the odds at 0-1 the higher they were at 0-0 and although this can't be taken as a cert.....nothing can. The likelihood of an outright loss is incredibly slim still.
Crvena are a good example. If they go 0-1 down the odds are still colossal. They concede the first goal quite often but hardly ever lose. The market strongly and rightly expects them to come back. So the away team will maybe come down from around 20.0-25.0 to around 12's initially. My maximum I would go to is 11.0 just because this pretty much includes everything, comes under the maria staking plan I've adapted for myself and give the max liability against reward I would be prepared to accept.
But I mentioned this a while back. From odds of 4.0 to 9.2 (my highest so far I think) I have around 57 selections and only one outright loss. There may have been others where I had to re-lay and escape with less red or small green but in terms of outright loss, you can do nothing about they are just about as safe as anything you could do.
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quick question on the ELO ratings for home and away teams: how many games are these based off? is this current season only?
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dean-adams said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dean-adams said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
There really is no getting around it. This is a game of probabilities and statistics. This is maths pure and simple, it's why I posted that table.
Doesn't matter how good you are at reading the stats, the motivation, the overall picture. Any strategy will hit losing streaks of varying degrees according to the implied probabilities and the amount staked needs to account for this.
Price is also key to this
Exactly but price is directly related to the implied probability and therefore also what you can expect as a maximum potential losing streak.
Agreed, which is why it needs to correlate to the strike rate of your strategy, if not move on.
I would say the one caveat here is that your overall strike rate won't necessarily correlate to your strike rate on differing prices. For example, I will happily lay 5's, 6's, 7's on my ELO when the overall strike rate is only around 75%.
My s/r on 5's, 6's and 7's is near enough 100% haha!
This boggles my brain a bit haha. Iām interested to learn. Am I right in saying that it only works at those prices on the ELO strategy. I assume because of the vast difference in team ability?
Whereas a normal strategy relies on filtering a particular statistic, or set of statistics that re-occur in order to give a probability.
