The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@john-hurst do you track your strike rate, average loss and average win
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer i liked that one you had on the ELO underdog ratings with cumulative profit on it. Tried to recreate it but not sure what you use for the software? is it Excel?
Yeah I use excel for all of it. It's just a running total. Say you have your single trade profit/loss in one column and you want your running total in the next column. So p/l is in A1. In cell B1 you enter = A1. Then for A2 you enter the following in B2 =sum(B1+A2). Take you mouse pointer, place it bottom right of the cell and you can drag that formula down as many rows as you like.
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@martin-walker need to get more profit from the winning trades, that way it wont matter if i have a couple of losses. Think thats the problem
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@john-hurst 2 losses in a row happens all the time. If your liability is very high this would keep happening.
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@richard-latimer i liked that one you had on the ELO underdog ratings with cumulative profit on it. Tried to recreate it but not sure what you use for the software? is it Excel?
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer i do keep the spreadsheets and have a target each day but im not wise enough to make graphs and whatnot. Need to look into how to make them. Cheers
I'm not great. Self taught. Google loads of stuff.
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@richard-latimer i do keep the spreadsheets and have a target each day but im not wise enough to make graphs and whatnot. Need to look into how to make them. Cheers
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And a few where I'm looking at 2nd half goals if everything aligns. Will be looking to get in at half the available HT odds. Price no lower than 1.15 on oddsportal for over 0.5 H2:
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And here are todays:
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This makes me feel good. I recently increased staking as had no choice with betfair API making it hard to place bets under minimum. This allows for the big recent increase but even so this a strong steady upward curve since May last year. There's definitely been downward points during this time and I won't lie my actual results aren't nearly as smooth.
The reason being I've been honing the strategy for over a year and during that time I've removed leagues, removed the 3pm Saturday madness, removed non league, Estonia, Slovenia. Eventually though, I've come to a point where my actual results are beginning to mirror those on the graph. In fact I've missed a few recent winners I've not even put down.
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@James-Woodroffe @richard-latimer
Cheers for the support. Think the problem is the liability i had was decent in those two. Need to adjust entry point i think
reduce stakes in that case, if liability is too high that's your best option you can still make the trade if you wish then
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@John-Hurst Do you keep spreadsheets? Make yourself a spreadsheet (hell, take mine if you like), plot some data and make a graph. Calculate your yield. Will feel a hell of a lot better if you can see progress written down.
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@James-Woodroffe @richard-latimer
Cheers for the support. Think the problem is the liability i had was decent in those two. Need to adjust entry point i think -
@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Morning people, rough night last night. 2 0-0’s that had loads of action- 12 sot in both games. How do people bounce back when the games go against them but the trades were sound? think i would prefer to lose a bad trade cause then i could fix it
It's just variance though isn't it. You could have a 95% s/r and still can't get away from the odd losing streak. Maybe this table will help:
anyway to make the pic bigger before uploading? can't see it very clearly
Neither can I, that's why I uploaded the other. Same thing, different website.
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Morning people, rough night last night. 2 0-0’s that had loads of action- 12 sot in both games. How do people bounce back when the games go against them but the trades were sound? think i would prefer to lose a bad trade cause then i could fix it
Hey John,
whilst it sucks when we get those 0-0’s that could just as easily have been 3-3 I think you’ve just got to shrug them off, especially if they were short listed matches that fitted all the criteria. They just happen and like Richard said mate it’s variance. I’ve had a couple of red days in a row now and before I would panic fart trade to make it up where as now I know it’s going to turn itself around. Don’t beat yourself up to much mate it those matches just happen. -
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Morning people, rough night last night. 2 0-0’s that had loads of action- 12 sot in both games. How do people bounce back when the games go against them but the trades were sound? think i would prefer to lose a bad trade cause then i could fix it
It's just variance though isn't it. You could have a 95% s/r and still can't get away from the odd losing streak. Maybe this table will help:
anyway to make the pic bigger before uploading? can't see it very clearly
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@daniel-cooper @John-Hurst
Indeed, I don't always post my trades as they are on those filters
I read every post though! -
@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Here's another:
Easier to see this one
fantastic resource that
I've used these tables for a while as a way of calculating my stake size.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Here's another:
Easier to see this one
fantastic resource that
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Here's another:
Easier to see this one
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0
