The BTC Football Trading Thread
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Entered a SH split stake with o1.5 goals in Aussie game... Only a total of 0.25pts as I only wanted to risk 0.5pts and was holding some stake back to LCS at evens.
Stayed in after first goal and took just shy of 0.4pts green with the 2nd goal.
Barely a SOT and then 2 goals... Aussie football for you lol
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@gareth-thomas Martin beat me to it
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@gareth-thomas said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Excellent. Thanks. I glanced at that page when I first joined but I'll give a proper read!!
to be fair usually it would be a selection but because of the season break this year I am being extra careful on restarted leagues
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Excellent. Thanks. I glanced at that page when I first joined but I'll give a proper read!!
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@gareth-thomas too early season (since they came back, I want a couple more matches each for them to be season ready) I explain how I filter here: https://betfairtradingcommunity.com/en/blog/football-trading-betfair-essentials
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Morning all. Given that my brain decided to wake up at 5am I've been looking at the Wellington/Adelaide game. Laying o3.5 has quite some value (stats say 18% chance of it, odds say 40% chance of it) but not much liquidity.
However, my question is, that a) this comes up on the Betgreen filter. 91% chance of a goal - and should favour Wellington. b) Odds are currently 3.75 to lay the draw. All seems sensible to me.
My question, now that I've finally got to it, is are there additional criteria you (@Ryan-Carruthers in particular) apply before sending the email around? This isn't listed as an option in today's email. Am I missing something that I ought to apply? Ultimately, why is it on the filter but not on the email recommendations?
Thanks
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@gary-brown i left it alone after the red mate
me too! should have just got in
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@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
It's funny with this site/forum, there are so many great ideas brought up that it's nigh on impossible to keep track of them all
. Excellent forum, this is. 
And why do I talk like Yoda now?hmm any ideas how we could make this easier?
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China back tomorrow:
Where there's borders these teams have nothing but pride to play for so I'm looking out for their lineup before making any decisions.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@liam-willis said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@liam-willis said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer i dont trade every game mate i only traded one game today that was the finland game which i got very good odds on. i didnt trade the a league game cos its too early at the moment and i didnt get on the austrian games cos of the odds as you have pointed out. i had the same thought process as you before i started the filter i dont like lower leagues which is why i am filtering out leagues. i am taking my time with it tho because there are leagues on there i would never have touched but are coming out profitable. i have no problem trading any amount of games if the final result is it makes money. which is why i also set up different strategies for it e.g going in after 70mins which cuts down the games drastically. its still a work in progress. im running alongside garys filter and has the same strike rate which is why i shared it earlier. i appreciate all the constructive comments on this as im still learning like most people here. hopefully this filter can be refined into something everyone can use.
I agree. You need to go broad before you narrow it down. We all have preconceived opinions about which leagues, odds, timings, etc. to use and avoid, but if we narrow it down before we have even tested it, we may be throwing potential profits out the window. The fact that certain leagues have proved to be bad for trading one strategy does not mean it's terrible for all strategies.
spot on you have put it how i meant it lol. the way i see it is football is about goals. from grass roots to professional every teams aim is to score goals. even the weakest league has goals. the point of a trader is to find a strategy that works for them and to find value that they are comfortable with. i will happily trade a lower league for 1 goal as that is the aim of the game but if it doesnt meet criteria or value then i dont trade it. if its not on my filter i will never know if i could have traded it or not, if that makes sense.
Of course but the point stands, you won't have the money in the really small leagues regardles of whether in theory they are profitable or not.
100% im with you on that it comes into the criteria. certain things need to happen for a trade to happen and thats a big one.
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@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@Richard-Latimer just another heads up mate re the A League in Australia. As all the matches are being played in Sydney and NSW we have the strange situation where those teams from NSW are actually getting away games at home. So a result of that is they are getting a nice little advantage. This is going to help Newcastle and Western Sydney in their quest for playoff spots and will also be of benefit to Sydney FC although I can’t see them not winning the league regardless.
FFS, I can't keep up haha!!
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@liam-willis said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@liam-willis said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer i dont trade every game mate i only traded one game today that was the finland game which i got very good odds on. i didnt trade the a league game cos its too early at the moment and i didnt get on the austrian games cos of the odds as you have pointed out. i had the same thought process as you before i started the filter i dont like lower leagues which is why i am filtering out leagues. i am taking my time with it tho because there are leagues on there i would never have touched but are coming out profitable. i have no problem trading any amount of games if the final result is it makes money. which is why i also set up different strategies for it e.g going in after 70mins which cuts down the games drastically. its still a work in progress. im running alongside garys filter and has the same strike rate which is why i shared it earlier. i appreciate all the constructive comments on this as im still learning like most people here. hopefully this filter can be refined into something everyone can use.
I agree. You need to go broad before you narrow it down. We all have preconceived opinions about which leagues, odds, timings, etc. to use and avoid, but if we narrow it down before we have even tested it, we may be throwing potential profits out the window. The fact that certain leagues have proved to be bad for trading one strategy does not mean it's terrible for all strategies.
spot on you have put it how i meant it lol. the way i see it is football is about goals. from grass roots to professional every teams aim is to score goals. even the weakest league has goals. the point of a trader is to find a strategy that works for them and to find value that they are comfortable with. i will happily trade a lower league for 1 goal as that is the aim of the game but if it doesnt meet criteria or value then i dont trade it. if its not on my filter i will never know if i could have traded it or not, if that makes sense.
Of course but the point stands, you won't have the money in the really small leagues regardles of whether in theory they are profitable or not.
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@Richard-Latimer just another heads up mate re the A League in Australia. As all the matches are being played in Sydney and NSW we have the strange situation where those teams from NSW are actually getting away games at home. So a result of that is they are getting a nice little advantage. This is going to help Newcastle and Western Sydney in their quest for playoff spots and will also be of benefit to Sydney FC although I can’t see them not winning the league regardless.
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@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@liam-willis said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer i dont trade every game mate i only traded one game today that was the finland game which i got very good odds on. i didnt trade the a league game cos its too early at the moment and i didnt get on the austrian games cos of the odds as you have pointed out. i had the same thought process as you before i started the filter i dont like lower leagues which is why i am filtering out leagues. i am taking my time with it tho because there are leagues on there i would never have touched but are coming out profitable. i have no problem trading any amount of games if the final result is it makes money. which is why i also set up different strategies for it e.g going in after 70mins which cuts down the games drastically. its still a work in progress. im running alongside garys filter and has the same strike rate which is why i shared it earlier. i appreciate all the constructive comments on this as im still learning like most people here. hopefully this filter can be refined into something everyone can use.
I agree. You need to go broad before you narrow it down. We all have preconceived opinions about which leagues, odds, timings, etc. to use and avoid, but if we narrow it down before we have even tested it, we may be throwing potential profits out the window. The fact that certain leagues have proved to be bad for trading one strategy does not mean it's terrible for all strategies.
spot on you have put it how i meant it lol. the way i see it is football is about goals. from grass roots to professional every teams aim is to score goals. even the weakest league has goals. the point of a trader is to find a strategy that works for them and to find value that they are comfortable with. i will happily trade a lower league for 1 goal as that is the aim of the game but if it doesnt meet criteria or value then i dont trade it. if its not on my filter i will never know if i could have traded it or not, if that makes sense.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I know what you mean re removing leagues. One thing that has been mentioned to me is about the ability to upscale on some. Can't imagine there is a lot of money in Kakkonen so when you're putting some serious dough down it will be nigh on impossible to include that league and others like it anyway.
This is true. Generally, the very small leagues could arguably be removed beforehand as they have no real potential for serious trading.
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@liam-willis said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer i dont trade every game mate i only traded one game today that was the finland game which i got very good odds on. i didnt trade the a league game cos its too early at the moment and i didnt get on the austrian games cos of the odds as you have pointed out. i had the same thought process as you before i started the filter i dont like lower leagues which is why i am filtering out leagues. i am taking my time with it tho because there are leagues on there i would never have touched but are coming out profitable. i have no problem trading any amount of games if the final result is it makes money. which is why i also set up different strategies for it e.g going in after 70mins which cuts down the games drastically. its still a work in progress. im running alongside garys filter and has the same strike rate which is why i shared it earlier. i appreciate all the constructive comments on this as im still learning like most people here. hopefully this filter can be refined into something everyone can use.
I agree. You need to go broad before you narrow it down. We all have preconceived opinions about which leagues, odds, timings, etc. to use and avoid, but if we narrow it down before we have even tested it, we may be throwing potential profits out the window. The fact that a certain league has proved to be bad for trading one strategy does not mean it's terrible for all strategies.
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@finn-kristensen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@james-woodroffe said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Only trade for today entered now at Milan 2.10 on 77 mins.
Yup - could use a goal now...
Not to be mate.
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@liam-willis said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer i dont trade every game mate i only traded one game today that was the finland game which i got very good odds on. i didnt trade the a league game cos its too early at the moment and i didnt get on the austrian games cos of the odds as you have pointed out. i had the same thought process as you before i started the filter i dont like lower leagues which is why i am filtering out leagues. i am taking my time with it tho because there are leagues on there i would never have touched but are coming out profitable. i have no problem trading any amount of games if the final result is it makes money. which is why i also set up different strategies for it e.g going in after 70mins which cuts down the games drastically. its still a work in progress. im running alongside garys filter and has the same strike rate which is why i shared it earlier. i appreciate all the constructive comments on this as im still learning like most people here. hopefully this filter can be refined into something everyone can use.
I know what you mean re removing leagues. One thing that has been mentioned to me is about the ability to upscale on some. Can't imagine there is a lot of money in Kakkonen so when you're putting some serious dough down it will be nigh on impossible to include that league and others like it anyway.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer i dont trade every game mate i only traded one game today that was the finland game which i got very good odds on. i didnt trade the a league game cos its too early at the moment and i didnt get on the austrian games cos of the odds as you have pointed out. i had the same thought process as you before i started the filter i dont like lower leagues which is why i am filtering out leagues. i am taking my time with it tho because there are leagues on there i would never have touched but are coming out profitable. i have no problem trading any amount of games if the final result is it makes money. which is why i also set up different strategies for it e.g going in after 70mins which cuts down the games drastically. its still a work in progress. im running alongside garys filter and has the same strike rate which is why i shared it earlier. i appreciate all the constructive comments on this as im still learning like most people here. hopefully this filter can be refined into something everyone can use.
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No one can accuse me of not trying to run before I can walk haha!! Just putting my new idea out for some public scrutiny after 1 amber day and 1 very good day (not that I've touched it yet.......I don't do this anymore until I've backtested).
All based around laying whichever team takes the lead based on the fact BTTS % is high, draw % is high, score draw % high and HT score draw % high. I say high.......as high as it reasonably could be given the likelihood of these things happening in general.
So yesterday likely a small green and a small red.
Today there are 7 winning lays and 3 losers. The losers are all small odds. I didn't get the odds for Ha Noi but as I was watching it for goals I remember they were short as soon as they took the lead. Very very short.
