The BTC Football Trading Thread
-
@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 yokohama 0-2 freebet over 2.5 now 110% roi when we get the thirth goal
-
@daniel-cooper I have dabbled in this for a couple of months and have had some horrendous results. Some has come down to my ill discipline. I'll go and see what filters I have and post a couple of screenshots when I'm at my laptop.
-
@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 but 1-1 ht over 0.5 sh 80%
over 1.5 sh 46.7% -
@martin-walker 0-0 ht over 0.5 sh 71%
over 1.5 sh 36.7%sample size 42100 games
-
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Tomorrows ELO's:
Despite me having found out the Chinese are all playing at Neutral venues I'm going to keep these open for the ELO lays as it's dealing with a lot more than just the h/a. The general level of the side should be miles apart from their opponent. Won't always be the case of course so I'll monitor for now.
A potential in Tunisia tomorrow. Not a problem as long as the liquidity is there. Also a game in the Russian 2nd tier. I'll be careful with this one but not ruled out.
New month, growing bank, amending strategy to protect that bank and take advnatage of the double/triple bubble as well as teams that initially take the lead and then fall behind (which I have left alone up until now).
I've moved the original spreadsheet going from May last year and started a new sheet with new columns to better enable this. Plan going forward will be to record all on there even if I don't get to them but note when something is just a paper trade and when my hard earned was on it.
Original sheet can still be studied. It's just at the back of trading spreadsheet now along with the graph.
-
This post is deleted!
-
@alan-steward 55% ov 1.5 if 0-0 ht
-
Morning all. See you're all busy already! Managed 10.88pts profit in my first month. Beginners luck (well - using the hard work and research of others mainly!) I suspect but hopefully a similarly successful August. Tosu scoring first would be a good start
-
@alan-steward i will have a look now
-
@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 i am in over 2.5 yogohama game was more contra bet last games it was under 2.5
-
@alan-steward 40% of all the games in general have 2 sh goals in the 10 years database
also depends on the ht score
and lay CS 1-1 score do it much better then 0-0 in very long run
and 1-2 also good score for late goals in long run -
@johannes-van-leeuwen-0 said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward normally only 40% in very long run
Sorry mate 40%?
-
@alan-steward normally only 40% in very long run
-
@daniel-cooper Even Martin has struggled with that strat... He had a filter when I first joined that was going well but then it didnt perform too good.
Its wierd how many games seem to go over when you want them under and vice versa lol
-
@martin-walker yeah it's a tough call... How about FHG and then if 0-0 @ HT enter o1.5 and green up on first goal at worst? Obviously not much green if away team scores first.
How many games on your filter hit 2 goals when 0-0 @ HT?
-
@gary-brown said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I am nnot getting any Asian game son my filters just yet so was wondering is their any worth looking at this morning?
That elo lay in tokyo v tosu looks decent mate
-
Does anyone here have an U2.5 filter that looks to trade in and out within the first 20 mins? What sort of stats do you tend to look at on the software? I’ve filtered for garbage first half stats but where overall games do tend to have goals in, so that if the market is expecting goals the odds should be favourable
-
@alan-steward my fhg is running quite well with a couple hundred results. I started tracking ryans split stake a few days ago and was wondering what to do about games that appear on both.
-
@martin-walker hi mate no one or the other... My FHG is quite strong and favours 2 goals so normally go for FHG but if 0-0 @ HT I back o1.5 to cover red
Best advice if new to trading... Dont try to recover red unless you're really comfortable with your filter and in-play stats
-
@daniel-cooper said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I was going to do the split stake for the Melbourne game but wasn’t up in time for the 30th minute as per the members filter strategy. Check in on the game at about 48 minutes to see it 0-0, check in play stats, looks pretty good. Backed O1.5 for 2 points and after the first goal came in I waited a few mins for a second. It didn’t come, but I felt relatively confident a second goal would come, so rather than cash out I layed for all my liability and left 1.5 points on the table for the second goal
A good guide for the over 1.5 trades is look at 2nd half stats for overs and unders and if decent above 75% then you can always leave the trade to run.
You may also have a over 1.5 game on a different filter for late goal or a second half goal. If it is then you could let it run.
I think its around 75-80% of games finish above 1.5 goals so its a good chance if a goal is scored before 60 mins tehir maybe another goal
